2014 Trade Analysis

This was the worst year I've had in quite awhile.  Overall, I took a hit of -$19,344 or -45% of my trading equity at the start of the year.

Delving into the data...

The only symbol, 6E, that I was positive on I primarily system traded. That should tell me something!

Avg. Time in a trade doesn't show much really other than that I'm either very short term focused, get stopped out pretty quickly, or both.

These show that I did tighten up my risk a bit as my drawdown got deeper throughout the year. That -24 lot position was on ES early in the year. Don't ask!

Deja vu from past years, trades held for less than 5 or 6 minutes are generally losers and get stopped out.  I don't recall seeing a pattern before but the 2nd chart below, shows that I consistently lost any trade I put on before 11am. Perhaps I trade slightly better during the quieter parts of the day?

Overall my take away is that I'm a lousy discretionary trader. I've had this conclusion before and can't say it ever fully sinks in but the facts don't lie. My sole system I traded this year was in 6E which was the only symbol I made money. For this reason, my focus in 2015 will be system trading. Since the start of this blog, my equity high was just over $90k in 2011 and I am down 74% from that point. A sobering fact but one that does not scream RUN AWAY, to me anyways! I am eternally optimistic, perhaps to a fault, and know that past performance is just that, PAST. That said, my leash is now much shorter which makes trading success that much harder to accomplish. I'm no longer that well capitalized but continue to trade with money I do not need anytime soon.  Does 2015 have to be my year to turn things around?  Maybe. Time will tell.  More on plans forward after the new year. I'll likely be coding Ninjascript with a hangover tomorrow!

Quarter 4 2014 Trading Results

December Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $184(4), ZS $247(3), CL -$873(48)

RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
Contracts:	55
Net $P/L:	-443
Wins:	23
Losses:	32
Win%:	42
$Commissions:	216
Avg$Win:	135
Avg$Loss:	-111

Wed. 12/31

10:30am CST - Fitting end for my atrocious year.  Another losing month and closing out the year at my equity lows.  The goal was just to make $130 today to close breakeven for the month.  I would have accomplished that if not for the spike which took out my short.  No psychological victories to be handed out by CL today.  Onto next year!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	-321
Wins:	3
Losses:	5
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	69
Avg$Loss:	-106

Wed. 12/17

2:00pm CST - Just 1 short 6E system trade at end of day. Been working on system R&D and plan for next year.

RESULTS FOR DAY
6E Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	221
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	221
Avg$Loss:	0

Monitor Deal

8:20am CST - Merry Christmas deal to all my readers! $60 is the best price you'll find for a new 23" monitor.  From TigerDirect ($30 rebate + Save an extra $40) + free shipping!

Fri. 12/12

2:00pm CST - Lack of discipline early today.  Dug the hole and shut down for week with a small loss.  I really should think about switching to a less volatile instrument.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	-457
Wins:	1
Losses:	6
Win%:	14
Avg$Win:	6
Avg$Loss:	-77

Thurs. 12/11

2:25pm CST - Lots more trades to be had after the market wore me down and I quit.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	4
Wins:	4
Losses:	8
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	181
Avg$Loss:	-90

Wed. 12/10

2:20pm CST - CL did not cooperate.  Luckily I was patient today after crop report, unlike a month ago, and got the CL losses back.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$464(9), ZS $495(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	31
Wins:	5
Losses:	5
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	104
Avg$Loss:	-98

Tues. 12/09

2:00pm CST - Tough day and overtraded a bit.  Too bad I didn't get a signal to short near the open.  Had a hung entry order today which didn't affect things but it took a few minutes to sort that out, not knowing if I was filled or not as price quickly moved against me 30 ticks in just a few minutes. Luckily I was flat and the order wasn't filled.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	118
Wins:	5
Losses:	6
Win%:	45
Avg$Win:	122
Avg$Loss:	-82

Mon. 12/08

2:25pm CST - If I had a dollar for every trade I took off too early...

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	246
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	246
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 12/05

3:10pm CST - Another system trade today thanks to NFP report.

RESULTS FOR DAY
6E Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	296
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	296
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 12/04

4:00pm CST - 2 system trades in 6E today.  This system has been pretty flat this year, up about $1000 if I had traded it perfectly and not missed any signals.  Last year had 45 trades, this year only 17.  I'd like to think if volatility returns to the Euro, system performance will return also.  (Previous report).

RESULTS FOR DAY
6E Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	-333
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	283
Avg$Loss:	-617

Tues. 12/02

1:30pm CST - Swing trade in ZS overnight stopped at BE today, then another entry which was premature.  Should have waited for close to put a long on as we are now at support from back on Nov. 5th.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	-248
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	7
Avg$Loss:	-255

NinjaTrader Tick Ruler

If you use Ninja and want a quick easy tool to help set targets and stops, download this file, RulerV3.zip, and import indicator into Ninjatrader. A middle mouse-click anywhere on chart, like on your entry point, draws the ruler and another click on ruler erases it. I wish I had had this years ago.

November Trading Summary

 Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $545(1), ES $27(4), ZS -$1797(11), CL -$1705(42)

RESULTS FOR NOVEMBER
Contracts:	58
Net $P/L:	-2930
Wins:	18
Losses:	36
Win%:	33
$Commissions:	260
Avg$Win:	119
Avg$Loss:	-141

Sim Trades

Past couple days I've been testing a scalping idea using the Stage 5 Trade Analyzer.  This is a great tool for analyzing MFE and MAE (reported in ticks) over a collection of trades.  Not sure what this may lead me to but as I've always said, you can't manage what you can't measure.

Note these are SIM trades...
11/24

11/25

Fantasy Football

I've always laughed at friends who waste their time with fantasy football leagues.  Looks like some people laugh all the way to the bank!

Thurs. 11/20

2:05pm CST - Taking a break from live trading until after Thanksgiving.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	7
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	206
Avg$Loss:	-100

Wed. 11/19

2:10pm CST - Well this week isn't going as planned.  I lost at least 5 ticks on slippage alone today on CL.

 

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$373(3), ZS $7(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	-366
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	7
Avg$Loss:	-125

Tues. 11/18

1:50pm CST - Tough day with volume split between Z and F contracts, with slightly more on F after lunch so I moved over to that.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	-303
Wins:	0
Losses:	3
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-101

Mon. 11/17

2:00pm CST - Back on the horse testing my better defined system. It eliminates most of the discretion but not all.  That last bit is really hard to get rid of but with some more programming and backtesting, it may be possible.  Today's CL action was muted but I had 14 ticks MFE on a couple trades at least before calling it a day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	11
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	5
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 11/10

11:40am CST - Unfreakin' believable. I've had good luck for awhile on monthly crop report days. That is history after today.  No chart to show because it's too ugly, unless you like seeing how to lose $1472 in just 2.5 min.  Perhaps this is the final straw I needed to draw to get focus back on system/mechanical trading only.  If you put "discretionary" in the search box on this blog, you'll see how many times I've flip flopped between system and discretionary trading focus.  This is just one example, http://mbagearhead.blogspot.com/2014/01/fri-131-final-day.html. 

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	-1472
Wins:	0
Losses:	3
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-491

Fri. 11/07

3:10pm CST - For the week, net -$807.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $178(5), ES $27(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	205
Wins:	4
Losses:	5
Win%:	44
Avg$Win:	139
Avg$Loss:	-70

Thurs. 11/06

2:15pm CST - 6E system trade bailed out my discretionary mess. Current thinking, subject to change, is I need to get much more mechanized than I currently am and/or get longer term, aka swing trading.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$94(1), ZS -$436(2), 6E $545(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	15
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	545
Avg$Loss:	-177

Wed. 11/05

1:50pm CST - Once again I foil my best laid plans.  The 1st CL and 1st ZS trades had potential for a really nice day...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$298(4), ZS $103(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	-194
Wins:	3
Losses:	5
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	73
Avg$Loss:	-83

Tues. 11/04

12:55pm CST - No excuse today. Revenge trading at its finest. No patience!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	-901
Wins:	0
Losses:	5
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-180

Mon. 11/03

5:15pm CST - No time to post until now and OEC had Nymex issues late today so chart is incomplete. Interestingly, their Demo platform had Nymex quotes and DOM worked fine, just not the Live platform.  Trading was futile overall.  Too many stopouts.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	14
Net $P/L:	68
Wins:	6
Losses:	7
Win%:	46
Avg$Win:	100
Avg$Loss:	-76

Scalping

I recently listened to a recording by a successful scalper affiliated with Jaguar Trading Club.  I have no association with them but they've been on my blogroll for ages.  Anyways, here's a couple screen shots of the recording that I found inspirational/educational for what it's worth.  The trader, Kenneth, did say that results do not include commissions. Results are trading in the CL and FDAX over past year.

October Trading Summary

 Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$64(3), ES $220(2), ZS $58(10), CL $1466(157)

RESULTS FOR OCTOBER
Contracts:	172
Net $P/L:	1680
Wins:	71
Losses:	73
Win%:	49
$Commissions:	768
Avg$Win:	160
Avg$Loss:	-133

Thurs. 10/30

1:50pm CDT - My neck hurts from all the whiplash.  Likely no trading tomorrow. We'll see.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	-579
Wins:	1
Losses:	5
Win%:	17
Avg$Win:	191
Avg$Loss:	-154

Wed. 10/29

2:20pm CDT - Recently I've begun to let faster charts have too much influence on whether I enter a trade or not. Need to fine tune my rules and slow things down.  FOMC sucked for OEC.  They've had many problems this year with chart feeds during fast markets usually resulting in a delay.  This afternoon was no exception.  My Ninja charts told me what was really happening luckily.  I had a 6E system short trade but passed on it (was an 18 pip winner) because "Last Price" on the OEC Trader DOM was stuck 100 pips higher than the "Bid/Ask" which were correct. One consequence was if you were short, you wouldn't be able to place a protective stop order unless it was above last price which was 100+ pips away, or so the DOM thought.  Guess I could have had a mental stop and exited at market if needed.  Trading is hard enough when technology works correctly! Ugh.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$824(10), ES $220(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-604
Wins:	1
Losses:	9
Win%:	10
Avg$Win:	222
Avg$Loss:	-92

Tues. 10/28

1:50pm CDT - Not my day. Very spurty, choppy CL today and had 3 fills that slipped 3 ticks each. That's $90 right there.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$241(16), ZS -$90(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	-330
Wins:	8
Losses:	10
Win%:	44
Avg$Win:	93
Avg$Loss:	-108

Mon. 10/27

10:25am CDT - Done early so I can go play in the 76 deg. Fall weather.  Likely not any more days like this in Chicagoland until next Spring!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	307
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	153
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 10/24

12:45pm CDT - It's Friday. Why press my luck? One was enough. For the week, net +$744 or 2.7%.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	311
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	311
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 10/23

11:55am CDT - Another hole digging day to climb out of. Price action was really "spurty" today and difficult to trade.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	205
Wins:	6
Losses:	6
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	154
Avg$Loss:	-120

Wed. 10/22

1:55pm CDT - Tough day... Internet outage right after I exited my last trade lasted most of the rest of the day. No point in pushing my luck further.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	203
Wins:	7
Losses:	4
Win%:	64
Avg$Win:	114
Avg$Loss:	-149

Tues. 10/21

1:50pm CDT - Goal today was just to get back yesterday's loss.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	808
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	304
Avg$Loss:	-104

Mon. 10/20

1:40pm CDT - Not my day.  Could have been a one and done day if I had managed the 1st trade better.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	-782
Wins:	0
Losses:	5
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-156

Fri. 10/17

1:50pm CDT - One and done was the safer way to go today with CL rollover splitting up volume and it being a Friday and all. For the week, net +$1177 or 4.5% gain.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	206
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	206
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 10/16

1:50pm CDT - What's with the spike today? Crazy volatility.  Again, if only I could hold trades longer...  If anyone knows of a free real-time news website for crude oil happenings, please let me know.  I searched for a reason for that spike but found nothing.  Perhaps just algos firing on all cylinders?  Interesting to me was that the CL Inventory report was the 2nd highest in past 2 years and far exceeded forecast, yet price did not sell off, thus making my short at that time (at 80.88) a terrible idea. So much for trying to mix some fundamentals in!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	236
Wins:	5
Losses:	3
Win%:	63
Avg$Win:	176
Avg$Loss:	-215

Wed. 10/15

2:40pm CDT - Missed the first of two 6E system signals early this morning because I was eating breakfast and didn't have my computer volume up high enough to hear the Ninja alarm I have programmed.  Of course that was a winner and the next signal I caught was a big fat loser.  If that wasn't bad enough, OEC had major problems today with delays.  Charts went from lagging a few minutes to as much as 13 min. at one point!  How can you trade like this? - see below pic for 4 snapshots of what I was staring at.  The only saving grace was my DTN:IQ Feed data feeding my Ninja charts so I knew what was really going on.

Tried to make a few things happen in the early going on CL to no avail but was able to get above water and erase the 6E loss despite broker frustrations.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $797(12), 6E -$530(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	267
Wins:	4
Losses:	7
Win%:	36
Avg$Win:	356
Avg$Loss:	-165

Tues. 10/14

1:40pm CDT - One of these days I'm going to surprise myself and hold a position all day.  Too bad it wasn't that last short today!  IEA cut its 2014 oil demand growth forecast to its weakest since 2009 but that was early this morning.  Not sure what caused the bottom to fall out at 12:45pm CDT?

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	262
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	89
Avg$Loss:	-4

Mon. 10/13

2:20pm CDT - If, like me, you recently noticed your balance to be ever so slightly higher from where you thought it should be, and you have a broker that doesn't communicate so well, there's a reason I just learned.  The NFA reduced fees by 50% on Oct. 1st.  Thanks for the extra pennies NFA!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	206
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	206
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 10/10

1:45pm CDT - Not sure what my problem is with Crude Oil this week but I misread it way too many times.  Perhaps I'm just not comfortable with the increased volatility yet.  For the week, +$641.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $1(11), ZS $496(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	14
Net $P/L:	497
Wins:	9
Losses:	5
Win%:	64
Avg$Win:	100
Avg$Loss:	-81

In other news, while most exchanges are going toward around-the-clock trading hours, CME is reducing hours for Cattle and Hog futures. In 2 weeks, say goodbye to overnight trading your steak or bacon! http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/ser/files/SER-7194.pdf

Thurs. 10/09

2:30pm CDT - Could have quit after that first trade but thought I could capture more.  Misread things nicely after that.  I need to do more work to better define my stop placement and when to move to BE or trail.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	-377
Wins:	1
Losses:	5
Win%:	17
Avg$Win:	305
Avg$Loss:	-136

In other news, my broker's parent company CEO is selling big. Does he know something or just diversifying by thinning his company stock holdings?
http://leaprate.com/2014/10/05/gain-capital-ceo-glenn-stevens-pockets-more-than-400000-from-sale-of-shares

And this caught my eye only because I wonder who the "educator" is. That detail is nowhere to be seen in this ad. Don't everybody apply all at once now!
http://newyork.craigslist.org/mnh/acc/4701754433.html

Wed. 10/08

1:45pm CDT - Tough day with too many mistakes or poor judgement.  The 2nd CL short trade should not have been made and the last CL short trade should have been a win but I took it off for small loss to lock in an overall profit on the day afraid it would end up a bigger loser.  Had a nice win in 6E but even there I overrode my system and took profit 10 ticks early, costing me $125.  And ZS was inexcusable as I bought twice above 9.43 just after the open.  Sorry no chart to show there but that was near the high of the pit session.  But tomorrow's another day...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $245(1), CL $210(9), ZS -$348(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	107
Wins:	5
Losses:	6
Win%:	45
Avg$Win:	170
Avg$Loss:	-124