tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.comments2024-02-14T04:18:59.786-06:00MBAGearhead Trading JourneyMBAGearheadhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05917765623543508978noreply@blogger.comBlogger2738125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-30765440883311129492022-03-15T11:33:39.079-05:002022-03-15T11:33:39.079-05:00"Mastering trend direction forecast is key to..."Mastering trend direction forecast is key to consistent results."<br /><br />it's not a prediction, it's just a statistical probabilityhelpernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-29070074705192391872022-03-12T17:10:30.848-06:002022-03-12T17:10:30.848-06:00Some thoughts on you analysis summary:
Of the 11 ...Some thoughts on you analysis summary:<br /><br />Of the 11 months traded, only 3 months had a sub 50% win percentage, with 2 of those 3 pretty close to 50%. That's a solid net positive bias.<br /><br />The biggest losses are among the higher winning percentages. That points to bad management in either holding onto to a loss to long or cutting winning trades too soon. It's strange to see the top 2 winning % months have negative/nominal returns.<br /><br />You once told me you had trouble determining the market trend, which is why you opted for automated trades.<br /><br />IMO, determining the trend in the range you're trading is crucial to capturing the biggest gains and avoid the biggest losses. The new market is so frenetic that it makes indicator/signal trading more of a wild guess but if you are on the right side of the trend, time is on your side. <br /><br />Mastering trend direction forecast is key to consistent results. Soullfirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09553112921402005563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-40535178964620668922022-01-24T13:59:36.855-06:002022-01-24T13:59:36.855-06:00121 trades? No, thanks..121 trades? No, thanks..helpernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-39348163031581213692022-01-21T01:27:25.783-06:002022-01-21T01:27:25.783-06:00just follow this strategy. Fully audited
https://...just follow this strategy. Fully audited<br /><br />https://collective2.com/details/138044147Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-87168889745062151302022-01-09T09:15:06.308-06:002022-01-09T09:15:06.308-06:00How would you define the term you use "real p...How would you define the term you use "real progress" exactly?The Wired Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04787436245265680726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-74463522984964528592022-01-06T02:25:29.408-06:002022-01-06T02:25:29.408-06:00https://discord.gg/wcQJKH3Xhttps://discord.gg/wcQJKH3XSith-Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01923269915062024311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-22971311235912424442021-12-16T06:49:39.665-06:002021-12-16T06:49:39.665-06:00Hey MBAG, this is ZenFX, checking in after many ye...Hey MBAG, this is ZenFX, checking in after many years. I first saw you about 10 years ago. I too had a blog then, but I stopped blogging after about 2 years. I'm amazed that you're still plugging away after all these years. You should step back and write a post on the lessons you've learned. It may be illuminating to many readers and to you too perhaps. Good luck to you!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-46128655319828111812021-10-01T08:44:41.352-05:002021-10-01T08:44:41.352-05:00Talk, no, but I do email w/ a few traders but not ...Talk, no, but I do email w/ a few traders but not that regularly.MBAGearheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05917765623543508978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-15409997674404737452021-09-29T23:52:06.521-05:002021-09-29T23:52:06.521-05:00MBAG, all these years, do you talk shop with anyon...MBAG, all these years, do you talk shop with anyone else trading and why or why not?The Wired Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04787436245265680726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-18505158742398324782021-07-27T06:31:37.597-05:002021-07-27T06:31:37.597-05:00I just bought a Ninja license finally. I just bought a Ninja license finally. coryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776212968843270014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-4969808395985643802021-07-23T15:54:18.899-05:002021-07-23T15:54:18.899-05:00Thanks Trin, back at ya! I agree in many respects...Thanks Trin, back at ya! I agree in many respects. So much randomness! I'm incubating a strategy now to see how it does. My optimism is nearly nil these days but yet I persist! :)MBAGearheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05917765623543508978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-46204729752394044052021-07-23T12:53:06.254-05:002021-07-23T12:53:06.254-05:00Hey MBA, a hiatus from trading seems to be the nor...Hey MBA, a hiatus from trading seems to be the norm with most of us. You being a former engineer, I can understand your attraction to data and back-tested data. Forgive me for saying this, I am convinced the markets are too chaotic to adhere to 20/20 hindsight, this makes the time back testing and reviewing past trades an exercise in confirmation bias adding to the frustration of subpar performance.<br /><br />This was initially a much longer comment, I chose to save the rest for a post on my blog, to prevent it from becoming a long rant. I know you have been at the trading game for years, you are the first blog I came across that motivated me to start my own blog. I hope the best for your future trading success.<br />Trinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05202578384891726849noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-88785869546754565302021-05-04T17:18:47.134-05:002021-05-04T17:18:47.134-05:00Great news, glad to hear it!!Great news, glad to hear it!!Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12820356330478517307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-3413336888192658232021-02-09T15:16:20.059-06:002021-02-09T15:16:20.059-06:00Thanks for feedback. Hard stops are part of this s...Thanks for feedback. Hard stops are part of this system (based on recent swings), they never get moved. Pros/cons to wider stops or even no stops. I've tested so many variations over the years. MBAGearheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05917765623543508978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-85111312931720536812021-02-08T18:18:55.422-06:002021-02-08T18:18:55.422-06:00You stop is probably too tight for NQ/MNQ. Is it a...You stop is probably too tight for NQ/MNQ. Is it a hard stop or do you manually close the trade?shzhninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10986645168725815998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-11430927008598898522021-02-08T14:57:19.190-06:002021-02-08T14:57:19.190-06:00Congrats on never losing so far 2021. Would love t...Congrats on never losing so far 2021. Would love to see your trades on a blog!<br />Your trading is obviously very different than mine is currently. The edge or positive expectancy is present in the limited data accumulated so far. Not sure why you can't see any? I realize however, any edge may disappear or change with more data.MBAGearheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05917765623543508978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-27333650640645007792021-02-05T18:28:03.407-06:002021-02-05T18:28:03.407-06:00Sorry, but I don't see any edge.
Do you think ...Sorry, but I don't see any edge.<br />Do you think there are dozens of opportunities to take advantage every day?<br />I only did one trade today. I could do more trades because there were opportunities, but my priorities today were different than watching the charts.<br />I carefully select trades with the highest probability of success. I haven't had a losing trade yet this year.<br />My trades have the potential of over 100 or 200 ticks.<br />After opening a trade, something has to happen to make money. What is it and why do you think it will happen?<br />Maybe it's time to count less and ask the right questions more.<br />I keep my fingers crossed...<br />Helpernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-65183722353980093862021-01-07T09:21:08.750-06:002021-01-07T09:21:08.750-06:00That is good to hear not all your eggs are in the ...That is good to hear not all your eggs are in the trading basket. Wise move!!!Kevin Daveyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04236816654726712466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-27338434580795244282021-01-04T10:21:14.601-06:002021-01-04T10:21:14.601-06:00I don't think MFA, MAE should help.
https://pa...I don't think MFA, MAE should help.<br />https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1123362Helpernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-52623808371084051992021-01-04T09:39:21.503-06:002021-01-04T09:39:21.503-06:00Thanks Soullfire. Believe me, if I could extrapola...Thanks Soullfire. Believe me, if I could extrapolate an edge from all my trade data, I would do it! But I would really need much more info recorded for every single trade, MFE, MAE, trend, etc. which I do not have.<br /><br />Hi Kevin, yes it was a good year in my non-trading accounts. QQQ, my major holding, was very good to me. Thanks for ideas.MBAGearheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05917765623543508978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-52703222022023116242021-01-03T09:23:41.126-06:002021-01-03T09:23:41.126-06:00Sorry about the bad year. Have you ever just cons...Sorry about the bad year. Have you ever just considered buy and hold as an alternative to what you are doing? https://youtu.be/CPlvnyVbqCg Maybe you do this with other money you have, but if not it might be a good idea. As your 11 years of results show, trading is really tough, not to mention time consuming. Or, maybe you should do something completely and radically different - maybe a different development process, different style of trading (get away from day trading), etc. I hope you have a successful 2021!Kevin Daveyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04236816654726712466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-82069201053442083732021-01-01T14:41:51.861-06:002021-01-01T14:41:51.861-06:00Happy New Year. Does your data analysis provide a ...Happy New Year. Does your data analysis provide a deeper level of detail within monthlies to show how many positive/negative days and weeks per month? That would help to show consistency vs a couple of big trades ruining or saving the week/month. <br />Not sure if it's possible via programmed system, but since that's your style, if you could develop a system that can produce consistent returns using this entire year's data with the stipulation/goal of maintaining net positive days and weeks every month, it should be quite robust.<br />In any case, ES and MES are clearly your best tools in your arsenal. Soullfirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09553112921402005563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-43925892669071290352020-12-15T10:02:27.729-06:002020-12-15T10:02:27.729-06:00Automation takes out a lot of the 2nd guessing and...Automation takes out a lot of the 2nd guessing and whipsaw. Less stress and drama as you could imagine. I have been using IBKR's Portfolio Builder, it's a similar tool RIA's use to manage their clients portfolios. Discretionary trading has it's merit, the disadvantages far out way an aggressive portfolio that's regularly rebalanced (taking profits adding new positions). Trinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05202578384891726849noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-62922266667520046492020-12-14T15:28:31.260-06:002020-12-14T15:28:31.260-06:00Glad to hear! Automation certainly has some advant...Glad to hear! Automation certainly has some advantages.MBAGearheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05917765623543508978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6514320583233596209.post-55457022494262697152020-12-14T13:40:08.468-06:002020-12-14T13:40:08.468-06:00My best year of trading has been 2020, the differe...My best year of trading has been 2020, the difference I humbly have to disclose is I used maybe 10% discretionary trading and the rest was managing and rebalancing an automated portfolio.Trinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05202578384891726849noreply@blogger.com