Wednesday, December 31, 2014

2014 Trade Analysis

This was the worst year I've had in quite awhile.  Overall, I took a hit of -$19,344 or -45% of my trading equity at the start of the year.

Delving into the data...

The only symbol, 6E, that I was positive on I primarily system traded. That should tell me something!

Avg. Time in a trade doesn't show much really other than that I'm either very short term focused, get stopped out pretty quickly, or both.
These show that I did tighten up my risk a bit as my drawdown got deeper throughout the year. That -24 lot position was on ES early in the year. Don't ask!
Deja vu from past years, trades held for less than 5 or 6 minutes are generally losers and get stopped out.  I don't recall seeing a pattern before but the 2nd chart below, shows that I consistently lost any trade I put on before 11am. Perhaps I trade slightly better during the quieter parts of the day?
Overall my take away is that I'm a lousy discretionary trader. I've had this conclusion before and can't say it ever fully sinks in but the facts don't lie. My sole system I traded this year was in 6E which was the only symbol I made money. For this reason, my focus in 2015 will be system trading. Since the start of this blog, my equity high was just over $90k in 2011 and I am down 74% from that point. A sobering fact but one that does not scream RUN AWAY, to me anyways! I am eternally optimistic, perhaps to a fault, and know that past performance is just that, PAST. That said, my leash is now much shorter which makes trading success that much harder to accomplish. I'm no longer that well capitalized but continue to trade with money I do not need anytime soon.  Does 2015 have to be my year to turn things around?  Maybe. Time will tell.  More on plans forward after the new year. I'll likely be coding Ninjascript with a hangover tomorrow!

Quarter 4 2014 Trading Results

December Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $184(4), ZS $247(3), CL -$873(48)
Net $P/L:-443

Wed. 12/31

10:30am CST - Fitting end for my atrocious year.  Another losing month and closing out the year at my equity lows.  The goal was just to make $130 today to close breakeven for the month.  I would have accomplished that if not for the spike which took out my short.  No psychological victories to be handed out by CL today.  Onto next year!
CL Contracts:8
Net $P/L: -321
Wins: 3
Losses: 5
Avg$Win: 69
Avg$Loss: -106

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Wed. 12/17

2:00pm CST - Just 1 short 6E system trade at end of day. Been working on system R&D and plan for next year.
6E Contracts:1
Net $P/L: 221
Wins: 1
Losses: 0
Avg$Win: 221
Avg$Loss: 0

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Monitor Deal

8:20am CST - Merry Christmas deal to all my readers! $60 is the best price you'll find for a new 23" monitor.  From TigerDirect ($30 rebate + Save an extra $40) + free shipping!

Friday, December 12, 2014

Fri. 12/12

2:00pm CST - Lack of discipline early today.  Dug the hole and shut down for week with a small loss.  I really should think about switching to a less volatile instrument.
CL Contracts:7
Net $P/L: -457
Wins: 1
Losses: 6
Avg$Win: 6
Avg$Loss: -77

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Thurs. 12/11

2:25pm CST - Lots more trades to be had after the market wore me down and I quit.
CL Contracts:12
Net $P/L: 4
Wins: 4
Losses: 8
Avg$Win: 181
Avg$Loss: -90

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Wed. 12/10

2:20pm CST - CL did not cooperate.  Luckily I was patient today after crop report, unlike a month ago, and got the CL losses back.
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$464(9), ZS $495(1)
Net $P/L: 31
Wins: 5
Losses: 5
Avg$Win: 104
Avg$Loss: -98

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Tues. 12/09

2:00pm CST - Tough day and overtraded a bit.  Too bad I didn't get a signal to short near the open.  Had a hung entry order today which didn't affect things but it took a few minutes to sort that out, not knowing if I was filled or not as price quickly moved against me 30 ticks in just a few minutes. Luckily I was flat and the order wasn't filled.
CL Contracts:11
Net $P/L: 118
Wins: 5
Losses: 6
Avg$Win: 122
Avg$Loss: -82

Monday, December 8, 2014

Mon. 12/08

2:25pm CST - If I had a dollar for every trade I took off too early...
CL Contracts:1
Net $P/L: 246
Wins: 1
Losses: 0
Avg$Win: 246
Avg$Loss: 0

Friday, December 5, 2014

Fri. 12/05

3:10pm CST - Another system trade today thanks to NFP report.
6E Contracts:1
Net $P/L: 296
Wins: 1
Losses: 0
Avg$Win: 296
Avg$Loss: 0

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Thurs. 12/04

4:00pm CST - 2 system trades in 6E today.  This system has been pretty flat this year, up about $1000 if I had traded it perfectly and not missed any signals.  Last year had 45 trades, this year only 17.  I'd like to think if volatility returns to the Euro, system performance will return also.  (Previous report).
6E Contracts:2
Net $P/L: -333
Wins: 1
Losses: 1
Avg$Win: 283
Avg$Loss: -617

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Tues. 12/02

1:30pm CST - Swing trade in ZS overnight stopped at BE today, then another entry which was premature.  Should have waited for close to put a long on as we are now at support from back on Nov. 5th.
ZS Contracts:2
Net $P/L: -248
Wins: 1
Losses: 1
Avg$Win: 7
Avg$Loss: -255

Monday, December 1, 2014

NinjaTrader Tick Ruler

If you use Ninja and want a quick easy tool to help set targets and stops, download this file,, and import indicator into Ninjatrader. A middle mouse-click anywhere on chart, like on your entry point, draws the ruler and another click on ruler erases it. I wish I had had this years ago.