Wednesday, December 31, 2014

2014 Trade Analysis

This was the worst year I've had in quite awhile.  Overall, I took a hit of -$19,344 or -45% of my trading equity at the start of the year.

Delving into the data...

The only symbol, 6E, that I was positive on I primarily system traded. That should tell me something!

Avg. Time in a trade doesn't show much really other than that I'm either very short term focused, get stopped out pretty quickly, or both.
These show that I did tighten up my risk a bit as my drawdown got deeper throughout the year. That -24 lot position was on ES early in the year. Don't ask!
Deja vu from past years, trades held for less than 5 or 6 minutes are generally losers and get stopped out.  I don't recall seeing a pattern before but the 2nd chart below, shows that I consistently lost any trade I put on before 11am. Perhaps I trade slightly better during the quieter parts of the day?
Overall my take away is that I'm a lousy discretionary trader. I've had this conclusion before and can't say it ever fully sinks in but the facts don't lie. My sole system I traded this year was in 6E which was the only symbol I made money. For this reason, my focus in 2015 will be system trading. Since the start of this blog, my equity high was just over $90k in 2011 and I am down 74% from that point. A sobering fact but one that does not scream RUN AWAY, to me anyways! I am eternally optimistic, perhaps to a fault, and know that past performance is just that, PAST. That said, my leash is now much shorter which makes trading success that much harder to accomplish. I'm no longer that well capitalized but continue to trade with money I do not need anytime soon.  Does 2015 have to be my year to turn things around?  Maybe. Time will tell.  More on plans forward after the new year. I'll likely be coding Ninjascript with a hangover tomorrow!


  1. Since 2007 my futures account took a 91% draw down before finally leveling out. Only a 450% gain needed to break even! ;)

    Good Luck this year MBA!

  2. Thanks Michael! Misery loves company. LOL Good luck to us all!

  3. I've been similarly dissapointed w/ my results the last few years and came to the same conclusion that adding more non-discretionary aspects to my trading is necessary for 2015. Also, it doesn't matter how much you lost the last few years (unless it affects you mentally) as long as you have enough $ and ideas left to continue until you figure it out, you're good. Good luck in 2015!

  4. Agree, thanks techsuccess! Good luck to you too.