Thursday, December 30, 2010

Quarter 4 2010 Trading Results



And a look at the entire year of 2010:

December Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS $6538, ZW -$958, ZC -$168, RLM $831, GCL -$2061, 6E -$127
RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
Contracts:558
Net $P/L:4054
Wins:87
Losses:78
Win%:53
Avg$Win:314
Avg$Loss:-299

Last Trading Day of the Year

2:20pm CST - Nice to end the week, month, year on an up note. Look for a trading recap of 2010 stats over the weekend.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1229(9), ZW -$556(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:15
Net $P/L:673
Wins:2
Losses:2
Win%:50
Avg$Win:614
Avg$Loss:-278

For the past 2 weeks, net was $2270 in beans, $864 in wheat, $1 in crude, -$5 in euro.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Wed. 12/29

11:40am CST - No patience again today to hold for bigger gains. But I am managing the goal of staying out of trouble this week. 1 more day...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $27(7), ZW $285(3)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:10
Net $P/L:311
Wins:2
Losses:1
Win%:67
Avg$Win:275
Avg$Loss:-240

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Tues. 12/28

1:25pm CST - Lulled into submission for a tick on a short ZS trade that would have netted 4+ cents. Looking forward to more volume next week!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$437(12), ZW $435(3)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:15
Net $P/L:-2
Wins:2
Losses:1
Win%:67
Avg$Win:240
Avg$Loss:-481

Monday, December 27, 2010

Mon. 12/27

11:35am CST - Not much action today but could have held on for more upside in beans. Oh well. I'm not into trading much this week anyways. ...still in Christmas food coma!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $269(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:6
Net $P/L:269
Wins:1
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:269
Avg$Loss:0

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Wed. 12/22

12:45pm CST - Scratch day. I think I'm done for the week unless I see something tempting tomorrow. I expect things to be uber dead. I really expected little today but ZW surprised me big time. ZS, unlike yesterday or ZW today, was muted.


Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$106(6), ZW $172(3), GCL $1(2)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:11
Net $P/L:67
Wins:3
Losses:2
Win%:60
Avg$Win:137
Avg$Loss:-172

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Tues. 12/21

10:30am CST - Planned shorter targets today on ZS trades and done trading early after hitting $1k. Of course the expected muted ranges with Christmas so near can not really be predicted by anyone on any particular symbol. ZS had a 16 cent range in the 1st hour today - very respectable!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $719(6), ZW $344(6), 6E -$5(1)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:13
Net $P/L:1059
Wins:3
Losses:1
Win%:75
Avg$Win:355
Avg$Loss:-5

Monday, December 20, 2010

Mon. 12/20

1:15pm CST - I took "not getting into too much trouble" seriously today and stopped early. I did take off the ZS trade 2 cents earlier than plan which cost me $500. I'm human - what can you do...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $569(6), ZW $185(3)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:9
Net $P/L:754
Wins:2
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:377
Avg$Loss:0

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Calling All Bloggers

I have the utmost respect for all my fellow trading bloggers who toil at the keyboard day in and day out, for lots of different reasons, to bring us something to read. Sure everyone is free to post whatever they want for it is their blog after all, but I would like to pose a challenge for 2011.

And that is... Post your Net P/L in dollars on a daily or weekly basis and provide at least a quarterly or yearly recap, preferably as an equity curve.

We all know that the lack of transparency in this industry is shameful. Nobody really knows how anyone else is performing or how many traders are successful. Brokers just won't share this information (for fear of scaring new traders away and losing commissions!). Personally, I read trading blogs for inspiration mostly. Sure some report pips or ticks gained on the day but what really matters is the bottom line. Props to those that already report $P/L: Jules, Sandy, De'Trader, Michael, Bare Bones, etc. (although some lack a periodic recap)

This challenge goes out to those that don't: Austin, Don Miller, etc. (to name just a couple that I know can take this constructive critique). As educators, I guess they have the most to lose (or gain) by showing their real trading performance. Don used to show his performance and Austin does sometimes show his daily ticks.

I do give kudos to Austin if he follows through on his recent announcement on attempting to take an account to a million in 2011 and doing so in public fashion. Hopefully it does not fall by the wayside like his $5000 account experiment in early 2010 did. (Austin, please correct me if I am mistaken about that. Perhaps you still trade that account up but only share details with your clients?)

If anyone knows of any good blogs out there that I don't have in my blogroll that meet this criteria, please let me know. Even the old P/L thread at elitetrader (that I used to post on in 2007) lacks any inspiration these days as it has shriveled up to scant few posts.

No need to proclaim your acceptance or refusal of this challenge but I hope to be pleasantly surprised when I start blog surfing in 2011! :)

Friday, December 17, 2010

Fri. 12/17

1:30pm CST - Another tough day fighting the pre-holiday dead volume tapes! Some things worked, others didn't. 4 ticks slippage on one ZS entry ($300)! I was my own worst enemy on some trades like this euro trade that lured me into submission after 45 minutes:


Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1213(12), ZW -$143(6), GCL -$1422(14), 6E $266(2), RLM -$1043(15)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:49
Net $P/L:-1130
Wins:5
Losses:10
Win%:33
Avg$Win:338
Avg$Loss:-282

For the week, net was $4760 in beans, -$1083 in wheat, -$195 in mini-Russell, -$3252 in crude, $259 in euro. Doing an early look back on the year, basically all my profits came from ZS, around $24k.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Thurs. 12/16

1:50pm CST - Bounced around between -$400 and +$700. I was going to stop at >$1000 but that never happened. At least I'm positive.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $507(18), ZW -$743(6), GCL $413(6), 6E -$103(6), RLM $36(12)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:48
Net $P/L:110
Wins:6
Losses:8
Win%:43
Avg$Win:397
Avg$Loss:-284

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Wed. 12/15

3:00pm CST - Tiring day with mistakes a plenty. Up $400+ early on then downhill from there. I know better than to trade CL around inventory report but it had been awhile so I paid the market to reteach me that lesson. 2-lot stop orders slipped 19 ticks! Other errors made were mostly taking trades off early. The comatose tapes lure you into thinking nothing is going to move anywhere and just when you exit, POP - tapes fly for a short spell.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1280(21), ZW -$481(6), GCL -$2213(30), 6E $97(6), RLM $327(15)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:78
Net $P/L:-990
Wins:10
Losses:16
Win%:38
Avg$Win:360
Avg$Loss:-287

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Tues. 12/14

1:50pm CST - Crude got me red early on, down $600, but the grains bailed me out. FOMC announcement was the biggest non-market mover ever! I'm trying to take it easy for rest of year (without reducing size) and not get into too much trouble. So far, so good.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $816(9), ZW $284(3), GCL -$242(14)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:26
Net $P/L:859
Wins:6
Losses:4
Win%:60
Avg$Win:269
Avg$Loss:-189

Monday, December 13, 2010

Mon. 12/13

1:15pm CST - Winners all around today. And after I decided to quit, the next few signals would have added more to the take. Oh well. I am a bit pissed at ZS today however, I had 3 ticks of slippage on one fill - 1 is expected, 2 is rare, but 3!?#&*#^$? That was $225 on my 6-lot...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $944(6), RLM $486(5), GCL $211(2)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:13
Net $P/L:1641
Wins:3
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:547
Avg$Loss:0

Friday, December 10, 2010

Fri. 12/10

1:00pm CST - An early end today to a roller coaster, break even week. A nice 4-cent ZS winner was captured in 10 seconds. That thing can fly!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1266(9), ZW -$196(9), GCL $525(8), 6E $116(2)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:28
Net $P/L:1710
Wins:8
Losses:2
Win%:80
Avg$Win:293
Avg$Loss:-315

For the week, net was $456 in beans, -$1412 in wheat, -$165 in corn, $307 in mini-Russell, $1282 in crude, -$422 in euro. And it was a near perfect double bottom:

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Thurs. 12/09

2:50pm CST - No emini trades as things there were really dead on rollover day. Should have stayed out of 6E too I guess. And ZS slapped my 6-lots around nicely today as if I was the ball in a ping pong game. My P/L curve is in a big wedge (will post at end of month). For my sanity, it better break out to the up side!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2204(30), ZW $723(15), GCL $755(8), 6E -$778(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:59
Net $P/L:-1505
Wins:8
Losses:9
Win%:47
Avg$Win:222
Avg$Loss:-365

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Wed. 12/08

1:55pm CST - ZS winner made the day. ZW burnt me for 5 cents total on 3 trades before I got 2 cents back on 4th and then gave up. At least I stuck to 3-lots on ZW today.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1169(6), ZW -$512(12), RLM $571(10)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:28
Net $P/L:1229
Wins:4
Losses:3
Win%:57
Avg$Win:506
Avg$Loss:-265

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Tues. 12/07

3:05pm CST - Unlike last Friday, I was unable to get back to green after losses in my core ZS system. Partly to blame was increasing size on scalping positions in ZW to a 6-lot which would have been great if I wasn't stopped out. It would have been a stellar day if I had reversed positions at most of my stop out points. Something else to look at... 2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$923(24), ZW -$1427(15), ZC -$165(3), GCL $2(4), 6E $241(2), RLM -$264(5)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:53
Net $P/L:-2537
Wins:6
Losses:8
Win%:43
Avg$Win:157
Avg$Loss:-435

Monday, December 6, 2010

Mon. 12/06

1:05pm CST - A couple 2-lot scalps Sun evening for 1.5 cents each within the first 15 min. of the open and a 6-lotter short this morning for double that is enough for the day for this trader. Watched some very nice and sizable swings in ZW today - that symbol is tempting me to trade it much more actively.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1149(10)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:10
Net $P/L:1149
Wins:3
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:383
Avg$Loss:0

Friday, December 3, 2010

Fri. 12/03

2:05pm CST - Tough day thanks to ZS being choppy and stopping me out by 2 ticks on an early trade. Otherwise that minus sign after ZS below would have been a plus. This continues to be a game of ticks. One or two here or there makes all the difference sometimes. You might think I overtraded today but part of my new plan, after a loss in my core systems, is to take new scalp signals that I have been working on this past week. I was $1600 in the red today mid-morning so am pleased I got back to par with the new scalps. As usual, time will tell if this plan will work going forward.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1098(24), ZW $673(15), ZC -$3(3), RLM $486(5), GCL -$68(4), 6E $40(2)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:53
Net $P/L:30
Wins:9
Losses:7
Win%:56
Avg$Win:230
Avg$Loss:-291

For the past 2 weeks, net was $456 in beans, $673 in wheat, -$3 in corn, $975 in mini-Russell, -$83 in ES, -$92 in crude, $41 in euro.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Thurs. 12/02

2:50pm CST - Nearly had a one trade and done day in ZS if only it had traded 1 tick higher and filled my limit order locking in $1100. But it didn't happen. RLM had zero signals and was really dead today. Is it a holiday somewhere? System testing with a 1-lot CL trade...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$795(21), GCL -$24(1)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:22
Net $P/L:-820
Wins:2
Losses:3
Win%:40
Avg$Win:89
Avg$Loss:-333

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Wed. 12/01

1:35pm CST - A nice 6-lot ZS trade short to start the month for just over 3 cents and a quick 5-lot RLM short for a point and another 1-lot out for breakeven. Wheat was on fire to start out and closed up 7%. Beans had a nice rally near 20 cents up after I got out of my short but I was content to watch.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $944(6), RLM $233(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:12
Net $P/L:1177
Wins:2
Losses:1
Win%:67
Avg$Win:590
Avg$Loss:-3

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

November Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS -$4690, ZW -$1163, ZC -$443, RLM $1526, ES -$83
RESULTS FOR NOVEMBER
Contracts:559
Net $P/L:-4853
Wins:58
Losses:77
Win%:43
Avg$Win:402
Avg$Loss:-366

Tues. 11/30

2:05pm CST - It's good to end the month on a plus note with beans and mini-Russell behaving nicely today. Although it was a piss poor month bottom line, I'm not looking back, only forward!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $613(12), RLM $543(6), ES -$83(3)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:21
Net $P/L:1074
Wins:3
Losses:4
Win%:43
Avg$Win:605
Avg$Loss:-185

Monday, November 29, 2010

Mon. 11/29

3:05pm CST - Back in the saddle and as disciplined as ever after the long weekend break. Traded plan today and came out ahead. As long as I can do that more days than I don't, I will be content with the outcome. Worked on some new systems over the break too which I hope to add to the mix soon if back/fwd testing pans out.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $673(15), RLM -$193(15)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:30
Net $P/L:480
Wins:3
Losses:3
Win%:50
Avg$Win:546
Avg$Loss:-386

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Wed. 11/24

10:30am CST - Woke up and the OEC platform was connected and seemed stable (finally, something to be thankful for!), so I decided to trade a little. Now I'm really done for the week, up net $25. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $119(6), RLM $121(10)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:16
Net $P/L:240
Wins:2
Losses:2
Win%:50
Avg$Win:460
Avg$Loss:-340

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Tues. 11/23

5:45pm CST - The break continued today and will likely the rest of week. OEC was only out for first 2.5 hrs. today (improvement!?). My screens were off after lunch.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Mon. 11/22

2:50pm CST - Slow day partly due to pre-Holiday markets but mostly due to OEC having lost connections to exchanges for the first 3 hours of the day and then again for an hour or so later. Bah humbug!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM -$214(5)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:5
Net $P/L:-214
Wins:0
Losses:1
Win%:0
Avg$Win:0
Avg$Loss:-214

Friday, November 19, 2010

Fri. 11/19

1:40pm CST - Yesterday repeated...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM $486(5)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:5
Net $P/L:486
Wins:1
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:486
Avg$Loss:0

For the week, net was -$3811 in beans, $179 in wheat, and $394 in mini-Russell.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Thurs. 11/18

1:30pm CST - I decided my "short break" didn't apply to my RLM system so I took one signal this morning.


Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM $486(5)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:5
Net $P/L:486
Wins:1
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:486
Avg$Loss:0

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Wed. 11/17

3:00pm CST - D'OH!!! Well, I'm down but not out. My account is back to where it was in mid-June. I am imposing a short break from live trading for a short spell to reassess and re-secure my discipline. Today I watched the huge early run of ZS 20+ cents straight up in the opening 4 min. but had no signals in my system. After that I was following my trade signals perfectly until, after several losers in a row in the chop, I decided to widen my stop on the last ZS short from 1.5 cents to 5 cents (target was also 5 cents). I was stopped and then my target was hit without me. So today was "almost" a nice day but that is no way to trade and "almost" does not belong in a trader's vocabulary. My bigger losing days have always exceeded my bigger winning days for awhile now. That must change.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$3211(24), RLM -$29(10)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:34
Net $P/L:-3240
Wins:1
Losses:5
Win%:17
Avg$Win:486
Avg$Loss:-745

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Tues. 11/16

2:50pm CST - Corn and beans touched limit down prices midday so there were plenty of opportunities (with some thin volume and several tick spreads at times). Took an early ZS short and quit there after 4 cents. Rocked red to green in RLM and sat out a few signals that would have broke even.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1094(6), ZW $172(3), RLM $345(19)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:28
Net $P/L:1611
Wins:5
Losses:2
Win%:71
Avg$Win:466
Avg$Loss:-360

Monday, November 15, 2010

Mon. 11/15

3:25pm CST - Stats below include last night. Zero wins today and overtraded during the early chop in ZS. After I exceeded my loss limit in ZS, there were some good swings that I just watched.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1695(33), ZW $7(6), RLM -$893(15)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:54
Net $P/L:-2581
Wins:2
Losses:9
Win%:18
Avg$Win:378
Avg$Loss:-371

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Trading the Sun. ZS Open

6:20pm CST - A quick 3-lot short for $600 to start the week. When grains open Sun. night at 6:00pm CST, there's often lots of action initially. Obviously I took this trade off too early.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Fri. 11/12

3:00pm CST - Internet outage midday for a couple hours didn't help but didn't hurt much either. Missed the major selloff in grains to limit down levels (corn and beans). Traded light in wheat in final 15 mins. betting on that trading lower near the close since those stuck long in corn and beans would want to hedge over the weekend. What do I know? Nothing, as wheat proved.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1169(6), ZW -$234(14), RLM -$58(20)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:40
Net $P/L:877
Wins:5
Losses:7
Win%:42
Avg$Win:520
Avg$Loss:-246

For the week, net was $2117 in beans, -$312 in wheat, and $705 in mini-Russell.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Thurs. 11/11

2:00pm CST - Would have been a $500 better day if RLM had filled me at my 731.30 buy limit order an hour ago. But them's the breaks! It traded there but didn't fill me. During backtest period when I saw that on the charts, I figured on getting filled half the time so it is built into expectations. But still!

Happy Veteran's Day and thanks to all who have served!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $455(21), RLM $457(15)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:36
Net $P/L:911
Wins:4
Losses:3
Win%:57
Avg$Win:443
Avg$Loss:-287

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Wed. 11/10

2:15pm CST - Choppy opening in ZS cost me there but RLM made up for it. Of course I have to screw things up a wee bit each day. My last RLM trade I took off 5 ticks early costing me $250. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually....

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$829(30), RLM $1207(15)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:45
Net $P/L:378
Wins:4
Losses:5
Win%:44
Avg$Win:594
Avg$Loss:-400

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Tues. 11/09

3:15pm CST - Beans were wild today and nearly hit the +70 limit up early in day. Made an error missing a signal in RLM system which would have made that green on the day. I've added an alert to sound so I that shouldn't happen again.

Will fill in rest of data below once OEC's servers come back up. They crashed right after close it seems. Can't even get in their website.

Update: Apparently it was a problem with my IP address being "locked"? I was the only customer affected.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1236(10), ZW $29(9), RLM -$608(20)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:39
Net $P/L:657
Wins:6
Losses:4
Win%:60
Avg$Win:332
Avg$Loss:-334

Monday, November 8, 2010

Mon. 11/08

3:55pm CST - No traction on most trades although I was up $700 mid-morning only to give it back thanks mostly to an RLM trade stopping out to the tick.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $86(27), ZW -$106(6), RLM -$293(15)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:48
Net $P/L:-313
Wins:5
Losses:6
Win%:45
Avg$Win:236
Avg$Loss:-249

Friday, November 5, 2010

Fri. 11/05

4:00pm CDT - Not the week I wanted to start November but it's over and in the books. Changed things around too much after the Monday loss which hurt performance rest of week. More discipline and rigor going forward next week.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$236(24), ZW -$24(12), RLM -$29(10)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:46
Net $P/L:-289
Wins:4
Losses:7
Win%:36
Avg$Win:399
Avg$Loss:-269

For the week, net was -$4400 in beans, -$443 in corn, -$1030 in wheat, and $174 in mini-Russell.

I haven't updated my blog on ZS System performance curve since May. You may recall I stopped trading this specific system on 9/16/10 due to the drawdown being more than expected from backtest results. As spooztrader warned me, the P/L curve would likely bounce back up as soon as I quit and it has (after a bit of a rollercoaster ride)! Below is the proof:


On another note, here's what I was testing this week with 1-lots and moved to 5-lots today (1 winner, 1 loser today). I will continue trading this RLM system going forward and hope for similar results. It is a simple S/R system that enters on retraces and has a target and stop loss of 10 ticks each.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Thurs. 11/04

2:15pm CDT - Higher Reward:Risk (RR) ratio is all the buzz these days in trading blogs and forums. But I'm convinced that it's all BS really. Let's assume a 1-lot entry and a fixed target and stop with no scale in/out, no trailing stops, no slippage, no commissions, etc. The higher your RR, the lower your win% will be, and they will be inversely proportional. If your RR is 1:1, your win% might be 55%, 2:1 might be 45%, 3:1 might be 35%, 1:2 might be 70%, etc. This week has reminded me of this basic fact more so than most. Today was another day I used tighter stops for ZS and got stopped out and lost. Had I been using the same stop levels (lower R:R) Tues, Wed., and today that I had used on Monday, I would have recovered much of what was lost Monday because many of my stops wouldn't not have been hit. But you never know what kind of day it's going to be (choppy or trending) until it has happened. I need to get back to a single system that works. Not messing with the criteria and changing the variables day by day. I know better.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1686(24), ZC -$15(3), RLM $133(3)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:30
Net $P/L:-1568
Wins:3
Losses:5
Win%:38
Avg$Win:80
Avg$Loss:-362

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Wed. 11/03

2:30pm CDT - Nothing much.... ZS had lots of action but I just watched after the initial 2 trades, the latter of which I took off early. To punish myself I said no more trading in grains for the day. RLM stopped me out to the tick on 2 of the 7 trades I made there.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $163(12), RLM -$125(7)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:19
Net $P/L:38
Wins:4
Losses:5
Win%:44
Avg$Win:217
Avg$Loss:-166

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Tues. 11/02

1:40pm CDT - No great strides today. I went back to tighter stops on ZS and of course I get stopped out on the very first trade that would have been a nice $1100 winner. Starting to test out a new RLM (TF) system.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$128(25), RLM $196(2)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:27
Net $P/L:67
Wins:4
Losses:2
Win%:67
Avg$Win:286
Avg$Loss:-539

Monday, November 1, 2010

Mon. 11/01

1:35pm CDT - Nothing but losers today as the sole winner was last night after the grains opened. These things happen but days like this make you question everything about any "edge" you may think you have. I had to look back to see when I last had a losing day worse than this and I had to go way back to March 2, 2009. So maybe it's just an outlier? Either way, time to do some more homework. Losses would have been much less if I had a fixed stop loss (which I recently got away from). Instead, losses were greater because the swings today were greater so I gave trades more room to work, as per plan, but they stopped out anyways.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2514(27), ZC -$428(3), ZW -$1006(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:36
Net $P/L:-3948
Wins:1
Losses:7
Win%:13
Avg$Win:660
Avg$Loss:-658

Friday, October 29, 2010

October Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS $3355, ZW $691, ZC -$60, GCL $196, ES -$3
RESULTS FOR OCTOBER
Contracts:539
Net $P/L:4179
Wins:54
Losses:59
Win%:48
Avg$Win:475
Avg$Loss:-364

Fri. 10/29

2:00pm CDT - I may have to start taking Fridays off. They've been terrible for a long time now. I dug a $1700 hole early on and climbed most of way back out but still!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$811(24), ZW $532(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:30
Net $P/L:-279
Wins:3
Losses:3
Win%:50
Avg$Win:342
Avg$Loss:-435

For the week, net was $269 in beans, $95 in corn, and $650 in wheat.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Thurs. 10/28

1:30pm CDT - Slow midday market in grains today. Passed on a few signals that would have worked out for small gains. Biggest regret is not holding a short ZS trade into the final minute of trading. In the final 3 minutes ZS fell 3 cents from my exit ($900 on my 6-lot).

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $252(24), ZW $119(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:30
Net $P/L:371
Wins:4
Losses:2
Win%:67
Avg$Win:446
Avg$Loss:-706

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Wed. 10/27

12:40pm CDT - Some nice swings in ZS today that went somewhere. Only needed one. First day Jan. contract volume exceeded Nov. so now trading ZS F1 contract.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1169(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:6
Net $P/L:1169
Wins:1
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:1169
Avg$Loss:0

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Tues. 10/26

1:25pm CDT - It should have been a once and done day today but instead I go and take the 1st trade off too earlier, ignoring my plan and costing me ~$500 in profits. Then I churn the next 3 trades for no net gain/loss. The grains have been very sleepy this week, which has lulled me to sleep thinking there is no more movement left and tricking me to exit early. Patience is a virtue.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $652(24)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:24
Net $P/L:652
Wins:3
Losses:1
Win%:75
Avg$Win:532
Avg$Loss:-943

Monday, October 25, 2010

Mon. 10/25

1:20pm CDT - Nice move up Sunday evening in grains but I just watched. Today, nothing got any traction although my unrealized gain was over $500 earlier. Executed per plan so can't complain really.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$993(18), ZC $95(1)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:19
Net $P/L:-898
Wins:2
Losses:2
Win%:50
Avg$Win:107
Avg$Loss:-556

Friday, October 22, 2010

Fri. 10/22

1:35pm CDT - Tough day at the office and started with 2 losers and -$1600 in the red. Next 3 trades got me back to break even luckily. A much needed good week concludes. Now to piece together something similar for last week of Oct. and I'll be a happy trader.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $8(30)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:30
Net $P/L:8
Wins:3
Losses:2
Win%:60
Avg$Win:548
Avg$Loss:-818

For the week, net was $3723 in beans.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Thurs. 10/21

11:00am CDT - Tuesday repeated today. Caught a nice short ZS trade. I wish I would have caught the big drop in CL. I may have to start nibbling at that market again (once I have a firm trade plan established).

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1169(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:6
Net $P/L:1169
Wins:1
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:1169
Avg$Loss:0

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Wed. 10/20

1:20pm CDT - Corn touched the limit up price very briefly late in the day. I'm tempted to add corn or to my trading mix but am a bit hesitant since it is so correlated with beans.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $838(12)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:12
Net $P/L:838
Wins:1
Losses:1
Win%:50
Avg$Win:1169
Avg$Loss:-331

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Tues. 10/19

1:20pm CDT - A few big moves in ZS today. I only needed to catch one.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1169(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:6
Net $P/L:1169
Wins:1
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:1169
Avg$Loss:0

Monday, October 18, 2010

Mon. 10/18

1:25pm CDT - I'm still backtesting new tweaks but suffice it to say for now that I'm no longer using a fixed initial stop and will be taking less trades per day than last week's experiment that ended not so great on Friday.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $538(12)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:12
Net $P/L:538
Wins:1
Losses:1
Win%:50
Avg$Win:869
Avg$Loss:-331

Friday, October 15, 2010

Fri. 10/15

1:40pm CDT - No excuse for today - the tiresome midday price action in ZS wore me down and spit me out. I've been taking every signal this week in ZS but that is not working. I need more ways to filter trades or perhaps incorporate a time stop (exit after x minutes if I'm stuck in a trade going nowhere). Or get back to a $x circuit breaker (+ and -) to stop trading for the day. Lots of ideas as always...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2936(63)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:63
Net $P/L:-2936
Wins:2
Losses:7
Win%:22
Avg$Win:850
Avg$Loss:-662

For the week, net was -$1995 in beans and -$155 in corn.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Thurs. 10/14

1:35pm CDT - Could have stopped after my 3rd trade and had the same net result. Churned rest of day with 12 more trades.


Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $652(58)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:58
Net $P/L:652
Wins:7
Losses:8
Win%:47
Avg$Win:390
Avg$Loss:-260

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Wed. 10/13

1:00pm CDT - Stops weren't big enough today or I was going for too many cents. It would have been a good day had I not moved stops to breakeven so soon or if my targets were only 1 or 1.5 cents. But that's not my system and there's always tomorrow...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$786(63)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:63
Net $P/L:-786
Wins:4
Losses:7
Win%:36
Avg$Win:364
Avg$Loss:-320

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Tues. 10/12

1:25pm CDT - 1 ZS long was the only real winner on day. Chopped out on others and a poorly executed 1-lot dip into the corn waters cost me 3 cents.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $660(15), ZC -$155(1)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:16
Net $P/L:505
Wins:3
Losses:3
Win%:50
Avg$Win:357
Avg$Loss:-189

Monday, October 11, 2010

The Speed Traders

In case you missed "60 Minutes" last night, check out The Speed Traders. Good coverage of high frequency trading, the liquidity providers we all rely on for fills and then curse when they slam the tapes up or down in milliseconds!

Mon. 10/11

1:20pm CDT - Beans were choppier than expected today after Friday's limit up day perhaps due to Columbus Day holiday and Thanksgiving in Canada. Who knows? Made a few trades last night after the 6pm open but 3/4 of today's take is from today.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $415(53)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:53
Net $P/L:415
Wins:7
Losses:8
Win%:47
Avg$Win:255
Avg$Loss:-171

Friday, October 8, 2010

Fri. 10/08

2:00pm CDT - USDA reported corn yields down which had all grain markets locked limit up most of day. ZS never took 1 tick below the up limit and the DOM was like watching grass grow:


ZW came off limit for part of day and I tried scalping long twice figuring it would get back to limit up (since corn and beans stayed there all day). Stopped out on first one and right on second but only held for 2 cents instead of 5...


Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZW $41(6), ES -$3(1)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:7
Net $P/L:38
Wins:1
Losses:2
Win%:33
Avg$Win:285
Avg$Loss:-124

For the week, net was $728 in beans, $41 in wheat, $196 in crude oil, -$3 in the ES.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Thurs. 10/07

1:20pm CDT - Quit while I was ahead today after learning yesterday that trying to force trades to go some distance in a dead market just doesn't work!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $899(10)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:10
Net $P/L:899
Wins:3
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:299
Avg$Loss:0

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Wed. 10/06

1:50pm CDT - Had 1 winner to start the day then the losers piled up. ZS was due for a choppy day after its recent trends but I did not figure this into my day until it was too late. Many of my trades would have worked had my stops been wider. The old "catch-22"...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2209(48)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:48
Net $P/L:-2209
Wins:1
Losses:7
Win%:13
Avg$Win:344
Avg$Loss:-365

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Tues. 10/05

1:20pm CDT - Caught a long in beans and scaled out.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1057(6)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:6
Net $P/L:1057
Wins:1
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:1057
Avg$Loss:0

Monday, October 4, 2010

Mon. 10/04

1:25pm CDT - A nice start to week, however, it was partly luck. Apparently, I accidentally clicked the sell area in my DOM on CL when I shut my platform down last Friday around 3:15pm CDT. So I was short 1 CL at 81.60 all weekend and didn't even know it. I guess I should review my nightly broker statements more closely huh? When I logged in this morning and saw I had a position, I covered it at 81.40. Only other trade today was a long in ZS.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $982(6), GCL $195(1)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:7
Net $P/L:1177
Wins:2
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:589
Avg$Loss:0

Friday, October 1, 2010

Fri. 10/01

1:55pm CDT - The opportunities were nearly limitless in ZS today, to the downside. Corn ended down lock limit, -30cents and beans were down 4.5%. Of course being the first day of the Oct. and my new focus on only beans, I missed most of the action and skipped many signals that would have each netted 4-20 cents. I thought, "It's too risky to sell at those prices - it'll bounce up and take out my stop." NOT! 1 contract sold at open and bought at close would have been $2150 profit. Makes my 33 contracts traded for $630 look not so great.


Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $630(33)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:33
Net $P/L:630
Wins:3
Losses:5
Win%:38
Avg$Win:453
Avg$Loss:-146

For the week, net was $2970 in beans, -$1210 in crude oil, $180 in the euro, and -$950 in the TF.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Quarter 3 2010 Trading Results


And the bigger picture, year-to-date:

September Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS -$2571, GCL -$1673, 6E $120, RLM -$950
RESULTS FOR SEPTEMBER
Contracts:389
Net $P/L:-5075
Wins:66
Losses:99
Win%:40
Avg$Win:251
Avg$Loss:-219

Thurs. 9/30

3:15pm CDT - A fitting losing end to the month and quarter. Crude kicked my butt again and you can see why:


However soybeans bailed me out so it wasn't too bad of day. My discretionary trading this month (since stopping my systems) has been mediocre at best. As I have known from past discretionary runs, I am my own worst enemy most of the time. I need structure and hard and fast rules to dictate what I do on each and every trade. Otherwise, I short change my performance.

Since I quit trading my CL system on 8/18, I have lost $1500 in CL. The system's results in the same time period would have been $5000 (hypothetically).

Since I quit trading my ZS system on 9/16, I have made $3000 in ZS. The system's results in the same time period would have been $2000 (hypothetically).

Going forward, I will once again go back to trading only systems that I have developed and backtested. For the short term, I am going to focus on ZS.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $920(18), GCL -$984(10)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:28
Net $P/L:-64
Wins:2
Losses:10
Win%:17
Avg$Win:727
Avg$Loss:-152