Thursday, March 29, 2018

Quarter 1 2018 Trading Summary +2.4%

March Trading Summary -7.9%

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$1962(69), ES +$631(17)
RESULTS FOR MARCH
Contracts:86
Net $P/L:-1331
Wins:28
Losses:24
Win%:54
$Commissions:348
Avg$Win:193
Avg$Loss:-280

Thurs. 3/29 +1.5%

2:20pm CDT - Ending month on a high note even though I lost this month thanks to (3) $1000+ loss days on CL system early in month.  Guess I'm "incubating" that system for now.  Particularly if I can continue to string together ES days like I have this week.  For the week, net +$637.
RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:4
Net $P/L: 224
Wins: 3
Losses: 1
Win%:75
Avg$Win: 76
Avg$Loss: -3

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Wed. 3/38 +1.4%

2:40pm CDT - ES was all over the place today as was my trading. Tough to hold for larger gains when price is jumping all up/down the DOM.
RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:10
Net $P/L: 205
Wins: 6
Losses: 4
Win%:60
Avg$Win: 120
Avg$Loss: -128

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Tues. 3/27 +1.4%

12:25pm CDT - Tried to short CL right around 8:30 CDT, kept trading my limit order price 65.91 but no fill. That would have been a nice one!  Meanwhile, testing ES live (wish I had held that last one)...
RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:3
Net $P/L: 203
Wins: 3
Losses: 0
Win%:100
Avg$Win: 68
Avg$Loss: 0

Monday, March 26, 2018

Mon. 3/26 +0.0%

2:45pm CDT - Not sure I can trade my CL system with +6R settings that I should trade to maximize profit.  You'll notice from Ninja summary 2 posts ago there were 27 consecutive losers during test period.  Could anyone trade through that?  I guess a robot.  Last week system, if traded, would have netted $2500/contract though.  But that was an outlier week for sure.  I did trade it today and should still be short (no exit at close).  But after being up nearly 3R, I moved stopped to BE and got stopped. I've tested BE stops and they just don't help profits at all (the way I coded it anyways). Have another idea to test and will code soon.  Also may be going live soon on ES idea I've been SIM'ing...
RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:1
Net $P/L: 6
Wins: 1
Losses: 0
Win%:100
Avg$Win: 6
Avg$Loss: 0

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

CL System Update

3:55pm CDT - Made some progress programming my system in Ninja and have some results to further scrutinize, analyze, compare trades to actual charts, etc. Ignorance is bliss in many ways but I now have the ability to change variables, do some optimization, walkforward analysis and really decide if I'm comfortable trading this armed with plenty of data. I can say I won't be trading it the way I had for past month using a 1:1 RR ratio. There just isn't enough edge there. Keep in mind, Ninja results below do not include commission or slippage so deduct $5 or more per trade to make things more real. I did find that simply changing the targets to 4, 5, 6 RR improved results significantly. I like to see an average trade of at least 3 ticks. Anyways, that's the short update for now...

Thursday, March 8, 2018

Thurs. 3/08 -6.4%

12:25pm CST - Taking a break to reassess and hopefully make progress on programming.  3 days out of last 6 with >$500 loss per contract is outside the norms and drawdown is now greater than any realized in backtest period.  YTD net -$274.
RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:8
Net $P/L: -1014
Wins: 1
Losses: 3
Win%:25
Avg$Win: 232
Avg$Loss: -415

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Wed. 3/07 +1.7%

2:30pm CST - A tick or two difference on 4th trade would have been a $750 day...
RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:10
Net $P/L: 258
Wins: 3
Losses: 2
Win%:60
Avg$Win: 252
Avg$Loss: -249

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Tues. 3/06 -6.9%

1:50pm CST - Well 5 losers in a row certainly sucks. Let's see, at a 40% lose rate in backtesting, 0.4^5 = 1% odds of this happening (in theory, not reality).
RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:10
Net $P/L: -1162
Wins: 0
Losses: 5
Win%:0
Avg$Win: 0
Avg$Loss: -232

Monday, March 5, 2018

Mon. 3/05 +3.6%

1:35pm CST -
RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:12
Net $P/L: 589
Wins: 4
Losses: 2
Win%:67
Avg$Win: 282
Avg$Loss: -269

Friday, March 2, 2018

Fri. 3/02 +2.8%

2:05pm CST - Good to bounce back a bit after yesterday. Still a game of ticks! For the week, mostly a scratch, net -$138.
RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:8
Net $P/L: 446
Wins: 3
Losses: 1
Win%:75
Avg$Win: 292
Avg$Loss: -429

In other news, found this Excel file I had done a long time ago. It's good to remember how easy it is to see patterns and trends in completely random data!  (Open in Excel and hit F9 to repopulate Chart2)

Thursday, March 1, 2018

Thurs. 3/01 -6.5%

1:50pm CST - Decided to trade 2 lots for March.  The day started nicely but then ended with 4 decent losers in a row.  This was an unusually volatile day in CL, judging from the number of signals I got. I traded them all perfectly but it still sucked to sit through the last 4.  Not much you can do. Tomorrow is a new day.
RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:20
Net $P/L: -1085
Wins: 4
Losses: 6
Win%:40
Avg$Win: 312
Avg$Loss: -389