401k Trading

OK, don't buy this book. I just posted this because I had a laugh that Google/Yahoo knows what ads they should insert into webpages I'm viewing. They know all! And rather than "Daytrade your 401(k)" and be stuck with limited choices, you can just roll it to an IRA, have it held in a trust, then trade Forex, futures, whatever. Bet that isn't in this "guru's" book! Oh, non-Americans can ignore this post. Guess I should have put that in the beginning...

Fri. 3/09

10:30am CST - It had been so long I had to see if could still press the mouse button. And yes, this trade was fully defined before I got in, except of course, for the ridiculous lag in fill confirmation.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	97
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	97
Avg$Loss:	0

Patience

"The practice of patience protects us from losing our composure. In doing that it enables us to exercise discernment, even in the heat of difficult situations. It gives us inner space. And within that space we gain a degree of self-control, which allows us to respond to situations in an appropriate and compassionate manner rather than being driven by our anger and irritation." by Dalai Lama

Risk Reward

9:10am CST - Not sure when I'll be satisfied with system tweaks and backtested results from NinjaTrader Strategy Analyzer to go live again but I expect it will be in next week or two. It is a very powerful tool I should have learned how to use years ago (although that might have been hard since I only switched to Ninja last summer)!

The results below from 1 system that I ran through the optimizer throws aside the notion that your winners must always be bigger than your losers. It crunched all the scenarios varying the target from 10 to 150 ticks and the stop from 10 to 100 ticks, in increments of 5 ticks to find the highest net profit over past 6 months. Note that this is just an example and arguably, net profit isn't necessarily the best metric to optimize.

February Trading Summary

Note: Only traded 7 days during month
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$461(7), ZS -$1467(88)

RESULTS FOR JANUARY
Contracts:	95
Net $P/L:	-1928
Wins:	8
Losses:	21
Win%:	28
$Commissions:	485
Avg$Win:	297
Avg$Loss:	-205

Past Monthly Trading Summaries - link on the right
Equity Curve - updated link on the right

Inner Spock

1:45pm CST - Why are the simplest things the hardest to program? I'm making slow progress in learning NinjaScript Strategy coding but I need to channel my inner Spock!

In the meantime, Warren says stocks outperform other investments over time! Duh.

Toiling away

2:00pm CST - Not making much progress on my next and best system but it's not for lack of effort. Trying to learn Ninjascript better is causing some delays. It's good (I think) that I'm an optimist because every time I go to backtest what I think will be a great strategy, it proves otherwise. It's enough to demoralize some! But my next system idea is already churning in my head and looks promising just scrolling through the charts. Now to just collect some hard data for each signal and analyze the results. Fingers crossed, rinse and repeat as needed...

For the rest of my trading career

1:50pm CST - Frustrating day again. The kicker was a short 4-lot CL trade I sat on for nearly an hour at 100.90 that I got stopped out at BE only to see it fall to 100.30 within a half hour (my target was 100.50).

The latter half of 2011 and this year I have been trading a mix of systems with a bit of discretion on which signals to take and exactly where to exit, stop for the day, etc. No more! I will not take another trade, FOR THE REST OF MY TRADING CAREER, that isn’t completely and precisely defined with an exact entry signal along with risk and trade management parameters. If it can’t be mechanically traded by a brainless monkey (aka: me), there will be no trade!

Back at it soon...

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$510(14), CL -$461(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	-971
Wins:	0
Losses:	8
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-121

Mon. 2/13

1:25pm CST - Got the move I was looking for but not until the last 15 min. of the day when I was done. And what happened to Crude Oil this afternoon? Halted at CME? At least I wasn't trading that. Feels like Friday the 13th.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-1133
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	240
Avg$Loss:	-686

Fri. 2/10

1:35pm CST - Tough day to trade beans. Had a couple opportunities to take 2-3 cents profit but was holding for bigger gains. Not the day to do that it turns out except for the last trade which would have gotten me back to black if I had held. For the week, net gain of $176.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	34
Net $P/L:	-1263
Wins:	2
Losses:	8
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	232
Avg$Loss:	-216

Thurs. 2/09

11:35am CST - One and done in 4 mins. today. I really have to work on holding these longer. The opportunity cost is killing me.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	579
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	579
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 2/08

11:35am CST - The less than 5 cent range in opening half hour had me thinking it would be a dull day. That explains the early exit on last trade which I should have squeezed at least another cent out (or 8). Crossed back to positive side on the year.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	359
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	379
Avg$Loss:	-10

Tues. 2/07

1:25pm CST - Tough 6.5 cent range in beans today so I can't complain with $211.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	211
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	210
Avg$Loss:	-208

Mon. 2/06

1:40pm CST - I'm still here. Took some time off last week and nearly forgot how to click the mouse this morning. I meant to click in a couple 2-lots but managed only a couple 1-lots on this trade.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	290
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	290
Avg$Loss:	0

January Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$662(13), ES $197(1), CL -$584(190), ZS $467(16)

RESULTS FOR JANUARY
Contracts:	220
Net $P/L:	-580
Wins:	44
Losses:	69
Win%:	39
$Commissions:	990
Avg$Win:	263
Avg$Loss:	-176

Mon. 1/30

2:05pm CST - Couple bean trades (discretionary) to kick off and likely end the week. Still working on system tweaks.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	467
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	579
Avg$Loss:	-346

Wed. 1/25

2:05pm CST - Little was going my way again today and an order issue had me in trade limbo for awhile today. Back to the drawing board for me in the days ahead, or longer.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	38
Net $P/L:	-1359
Wins:	3
Losses:	16
Win%:	16
Avg$Win:	418
Avg$Loss:	-163

Tues. 1/24

9:35am CST - Better...

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	616
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	264
Avg$Loss:	-89

Mon. 1/23

1:35pm CST - All systems out of sync today.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$210(2), CL -$1451(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	-1661
Wins:	2
Losses:	7
Win%:	22
Avg$Win:	87
Avg$Loss:	-262

Fri. 1/20

11:00am CST - Good day and good to meet the goal for week of average gain of $250/day. For the week, net gain of $1176.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$80(1), CL $584(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	505
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	361
Avg$Loss:	-72

Thurs. 1/19

1:25pm CST - Rough start but strong finish.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	529
Wins:	4
Losses:	4
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	346
Avg$Loss:	-214

Wed. 1/18

1:55pm CST - As rollover approaches, I found CL choppy today. Should have stopped after trade 13 when I got above water. Several stop outs within a tick could have made a big difference today if they had gone on to targets instead. But you can't live in the past so bring on tomorrow.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $73(3), CL -$433(30)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	33
Net $P/L:	-360
Wins:	8
Losses:	11
Win%:	42
Avg$Win:	206
Avg$Loss:	-182

Tues. 1/17

10:50am CST - A couple trades started the week on the right foot.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	502
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	251
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 1/13

1:10pm CST - Can I blame Friday the 13th? I didn't think so. For the week, net loss of -$211.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$444(4), CL -$1011(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	-1455
Wins:	2
Losses:	10
Win%:	17
Avg$Win:	221
Avg$Loss:	-190

Thurs. 1/12

9:10am CST - Short day.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$130(1), CL $631(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	501
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	631
Avg$Loss:	-130

Wed. 1/11

11:15am CST - As usual, left lots on the table but isn't that the life of a scalper? Good day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	496
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	171
Avg$Loss:	-9

Tues. 1/10

1:15pm CST - Could have been much better but an okay day.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $128(2), CL $178(14)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	306
Wins:	5
Losses:	4
Win%:	56
Avg$Win:	204
Avg$Loss:	-179

Mon. 1/09

2:05pm CST - Got off to a bad start but recovered. Thought I'd answer the comments from Friday here with the below chart. I do appreciate the feedback and suggestions. I know the arguments very well on the pros/cons of taking every trade vs. stopping trading after a certain dollar profit or loss is hit, whichever comes first. I used to be firmly in the "take every trade" camp and still mostly am. But I've wavered in my thinking over the past year or so and do see benefit to stopping for the day after being up a target profit amount. But limiting the downside to the same amount as the upside just doesn't work for me. Believing I have an edge in my approach, it make sense to continue trading if I have a few losers in a row. Today was a great example. If I had had a -$500 cutoff in place, I would have quit trading after trade 4 for a loss on the day of -$755. But believing in my trading, I continued trading and ended near even on the day. That's not to say I don't have a downside "uncle" point. But it is not any particular hard number I can live with and will vary based on how I feel each day. Perhaps this too will change someday.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	-59
Wins:	4
Losses:	6
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	179
Avg$Loss:	-129

Fri. 1/06

9:50am CST - Jumped back in the water today. At least for Jan., the plan is to quit for the day when up $300-400. Slow and steady. After all, averaging $250 a day will get me 100% return on the year. The real question is will I give back multiple days of gains in a single losing day as I did a lot in 2011?

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
ES $197(1), CL $193(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	391
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	207
Avg$Loss:	-229

Testosterone

No trades yet for me in 2012. Hope to be back at it soon.
In the meantime, here's something else to worry about! LOL