ES $3075(89), NQ -$580(13) CL -$534(9), 6E -$622(5)
| RESULTS FOR JANUARY | |
|---|---|
| Contracts: | 116 |
| Net $P/L: | 1339 |
| Wins: | 27 |
| Losses: | 24 |
| Win%: | 53 |
| $Commissions: | 366 |
| Avg$Win: | 411 |
| Avg$Loss: | -407 |
23 hours ago
Friday, January 29, 2016
January Trading Summary
ES $3075(89), NQ -$580(13) CL -$534(9), 6E -$622(5)
Fri. 1/29
12:55pm CST - Good end to the month but I messed up a tiny bit on exit after watching the trade go no where for so long I bailed a point earlier than plan. And then of course it goes a mile more than that! Oh well. For the week +$3315 net. YTD +4.6%.
In other news, there are so many things wrong with this story I had to post it. Like does Fortune or Reuters have a clue what HFT is? I guess headlines grab readers. The whole story is really just an ad for Quantopian or Cloud9Trader, neither of which I had heard of so I guess the story succeeded in that regard.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 3 |
| Net $P/L: | 666 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 666 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
In other news, there are so many things wrong with this story I had to post it. Like does Fortune or Reuters have a clue what HFT is? I guess headlines grab readers. The whole story is really just an ad for Quantopian or Cloud9Trader, neither of which I had heard of so I guess the story succeeded in that regard.
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Thurs. 1/28
3:10pm CST -
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 3 |
| Net $P/L: | 854 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 854 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Wed. 1/27
2:45pm CST - FOMC day always adds some movement. Had a few signals after announcement two of which worked beautifully but I had already had my daily fill so I sat on my hands as per plan.
In other news, most all of these quotes will likely speak to you as well as they did me! (Source: tradeciety.com)
Jesse Livermore talks a lot about the importance of respecting your rules and learning from failures:
1 – What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game. …there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.
2 – The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street among the professionals who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for a regular wage.
3 – It never was my thinking that made me the big money for me. It always was my sitting.
4 – It is almost as important to know what not to do as to know what should be done.
5 – A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game. That’s why I don’t believe in tips.
6 – Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game.
7 – Courage in a speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of his mind.
8 – A man can excuse his mistakes only by capitalizing them to his subsequent profit.
9 – The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare the rod while teaching.
10 – If I hadn’t made money some of the time I might have acquired market wisdom quicker.
11 – I had been studying trying to locate the exact trouble with my system that had been responsible for my defeat.
12 – There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win.
13 – A man will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.
14 – I was convinced whatever was wrong was wrong with me and not with the market.
15 – I never argue with the tape. Getting sore at the market does not get you anywhere.
16 – A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss, that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
17 – Stocks are never too high to buy or too low to sell.
18 – One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These are the two most expensive eighths in the world.
19 – Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss must develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 3 |
| Net $P/L: | 741 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 741 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
In other news, most all of these quotes will likely speak to you as well as they did me! (Source: tradeciety.com)
Jesse Livermore talks a lot about the importance of respecting your rules and learning from failures:
1 – What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game. …there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.
2 – The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street among the professionals who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for a regular wage.
3 – It never was my thinking that made me the big money for me. It always was my sitting.
4 – It is almost as important to know what not to do as to know what should be done.
5 – A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game. That’s why I don’t believe in tips.
6 – Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game.
7 – Courage in a speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of his mind.
8 – A man can excuse his mistakes only by capitalizing them to his subsequent profit.
9 – The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare the rod while teaching.
10 – If I hadn’t made money some of the time I might have acquired market wisdom quicker.
11 – I had been studying trying to locate the exact trouble with my system that had been responsible for my defeat.
12 – There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win.
13 – A man will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.
14 – I was convinced whatever was wrong was wrong with me and not with the market.
15 – I never argue with the tape. Getting sore at the market does not get you anywhere.
16 – A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss, that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
17 – Stocks are never too high to buy or too low to sell.
18 – One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These are the two most expensive eighths in the world.
19 – Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss must develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Tues. 1/26
3:35pm CST -
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 8 |
| Net $P/L: | 265 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 1 |
| Win%: | 50 |
| Avg$Win: | 739 |
| Avg$Loss: | -474 |
Monday, January 25, 2016
Mon. 1/25
1:55pm CST -
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 4 |
| Net $P/L: | 788 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 788 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
Friday, January 22, 2016
Fri. 1/22
12:45pm CST - For the week, net +$2194. YTD -7%.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 3 |
| Net $P/L: | 629 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 629 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Thurs. 1/21
2:40pm CST -
A couple Euro system trades today. The new "half-ticks" don't seem to be a problem for my execution. And as usual, lots of movement in the indexes.
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $637(3), ES $460(1)
6E $637(3), ES $460(1)
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| Contracts: | 4 |
| Net $P/L: | 1097 |
| Wins: | 3 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 366 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Wed. 1/20
1:05pm CST - Thanks for comments on last post. I appreciate them all. Thought I'd touch on some of them here. First, I realize many readers often wonder if I have a method to my madness. Generally I hate to write much (not good for a blogger) and some of my entries/exits may appear random unless you are in my head. Sure I'm human and occasionally go "off plan" but for the most part there's a reason for every single trade.
As for why I didn't stick to my CL method that seemed to pull $300 out of market most days for a nice stretch there? Simple, it was not sustainable based on further backtesting and actual results toward the end of that run that made me question things more.
Did I jump into ES with bigger size without a system or reasoning as one commenter suggests? Of course not. But readers can think anything they would like, or not read at all for that matter. It's a free country! :) This blog has never been about sharing system details and rationale for every trade. If it was, it would have burned me out and this blog would have folded up shop years ago.
Latest ES method which I started trading today is a tweak of what I was doing the past couple weeks and looks to take just a trade or two a day. I still want to backtest further back but it should allow me to pull 6-7 pts. out of the market each week per contract based on data so far. Hope to improve that but that will be more than adequate if it can be produced consistently.
In other news, 37% of forex traders were profitable in Q4.
As for why I didn't stick to my CL method that seemed to pull $300 out of market most days for a nice stretch there? Simple, it was not sustainable based on further backtesting and actual results toward the end of that run that made me question things more.
Did I jump into ES with bigger size without a system or reasoning as one commenter suggests? Of course not. But readers can think anything they would like, or not read at all for that matter. It's a free country! :) This blog has never been about sharing system details and rationale for every trade. If it was, it would have burned me out and this blog would have folded up shop years ago.
Latest ES method which I started trading today is a tweak of what I was doing the past couple weeks and looks to take just a trade or two a day. I still want to backtest further back but it should allow me to pull 6-7 pts. out of the market each week per contract based on data so far. Hope to improve that but that will be more than adequate if it can be produced consistently.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 2 |
| Net $P/L: | 468 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 468 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
In other news, 37% of forex traders were profitable in Q4.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Fri. 1/15
10:15am CST - Well I gave it a shot, coming out swinging in the new year and trading some bigger size on a mostly mechanical ES system. Followed the plan pretty well until the 2nd and 3rd trades today when revenge crept in. In hindsight I should not have mixed larger size with the extreme volatility we've had this year. Or had a better plan to deal with it! 4 point fixed stops in ES are just not enough right now. This continues to be a game of inches, or thousandths of an inch. There are so many times, like my 1st trade today when a single tick would have made all the difference. Any edge anybody may proclaim to have is razor thin which is part of the challenge. I'll have some time over the long weekend to reflect on things and figure out the plan ahead. For the week, net -$2945. YTD down 14%.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 12 |
| Net $P/L: | -2239 |
| Wins: | 0 |
| Losses: | 3 |
| Win%: | 0 |
| Avg$Win: | 0 |
| Avg$Loss: | -746 |
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Thurs. 1/14
1:30pm CST - Gave back 2 days of gains.
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $9(3), ES -$1721(14)
CL $9(3), ES -$1721(14)
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| Contracts: | 17 |
| Net $P/L: | -1712 |
| Wins: | 3 |
| Losses: | 6 |
| Win%: | 33 |
| Avg$Win: | 135 |
| Avg$Loss: | -353 |
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Wed. 1/13
2:45pm CST - Tons of opportunity everywhere yet again. Still hard to be happy hitting singles when I see grand-slams all over the place when reviewing charts after the fact. My early 4-lot ES short could have earned an extra $10k+ if held into the mid-afternoon lows. But obviously 60 pt. days in ES are not the norm so one must be content following the plan.
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $102(2), ES $930(6)
CL $102(2), ES $930(6)
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| Contracts: | 8 |
| Net $P/L: | 1033 |
| Wins: | 5 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 207 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Tues. 1/12
2:50pm CST - Tons of opportunity today everywhere!
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 4 |
| Net $P/L: | 787 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 787 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
Monday, January 11, 2016
Mon. 1/11
2:10pm CST -
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 4 |
| Net $P/L: | -813 |
| Wins: | 0 |
| Losses: | 1 |
| Win%: | 0 |
| Avg$Win: | 0 |
| Avg$Loss: | -813 |
Friday, January 8, 2016
Week of 1/04 - 1/08
3:00pm CST - Thought I'd try posting at the end of the week just to shake things up a bit. I'll likely resume posting daily. The trade plan is still in a state of flux and I'm still wrestling with the best way for me to make some gains this year. I'd like ES to get back into the mix due to its scale-ability so I started live testing in that this week. Mon. and Tues. didn't go so well. Stopped by 2 ticks, then 4 ticks on 4-lots before price hit targets without me.
Wed. and Thurs. were positive but gave some back with CL and NQ. I like the granularity of NQ but quickly remembered how fast it can rip up or down 20+ ticks in the blink of an eye. Guess I picked one of the most volatile days on Thurs. to test trading in that symbol. We'll see if I give it another chance.
Friday went well if you exclude the 6E system trade (no chart) that shorted 2-lot after the Jobs Report and price rallied to take me out at a full stop loss. That hurt. A reminder that starting next week, 6E futures go to half-ticks (like the 6J did last year). This will equate to current depth of market at any given price being cut in half so I would expect more slippage. Not sure what this will do to my 6E system.
For the week, each day was: -$811, -$811, +$335, +282, -$221 = net loss -$1226. Would have been a BE week if not for 6E trade.
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$645(4), ES $1258(22), NQ -$580(13), 6E -$1259(2)
I've updated my $Range spreadsheet to see how the same 2-hour time period has changed in 2015. Click here if you want the Excel file with all the data. Most interesting was how 2015 compares to the 1st week this year with the crazy volatility! NQ and ES were equal to CL!
Friday went well if you exclude the 6E system trade (no chart) that shorted 2-lot after the Jobs Report and price rallied to take me out at a full stop loss. That hurt. A reminder that starting next week, 6E futures go to half-ticks (like the 6J did last year). This will equate to current depth of market at any given price being cut in half so I would expect more slippage. Not sure what this will do to my 6E system.
CL -$645(4), ES $1258(22), NQ -$580(13), 6E -$1259(2)
| RESULTS FOR WEEK | |
|---|---|
| Contracts: | 41 |
| Net $P/L: | -1226 |
| Wins: | 8 |
| Losses: | 13 |
| Win%: | 38 |
| Avg$Win: | 363 |
| Avg$Loss: | -318 |
I've updated my $Range spreadsheet to see how the same 2-hour time period has changed in 2015. Click here if you want the Excel file with all the data. Most interesting was how 2015 compares to the 1st week this year with the crazy volatility! NQ and ES were equal to CL!
Thursday, December 31, 2015
2015 Trade Analysis
It was a mostly up year but there were a couple sizable drawdowns, the last of which I'm still in the middle of. Overall my accounts gained net +$5,701 or +24% of my trading equity at the start of the year. Nothing to write home about but percentage-wise, better than most hedge funds and better than the stock indexes this year.
The data:
My biggest success was system trading 6E but it's good to know I had some slight success discretionary trading CL. I'll have to think more in days and weeks ahead to finalize a plan for 2016. Stay tuned and Happy New Year!
The data:
December Trading Summary
ES -$700(4), CL -$2800(76)
| RESULTS FOR DECEMBER | |
|---|---|
| Contracts: | 80 |
| Net $P/L: | -3501 |
| Wins: | 25 |
| Losses: | 32 |
| Win%: | 44 |
| $Commissions: | 303 |
| Avg$Win: | 133 |
| Avg$Loss: | -214 |
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Wed. 12/23
11:25am CST - Last day testing my current method based on these results! I patiently waited until after inventory report release. Got a good long signal but then got a reverse signal and took a full stop on 3 lot 2-ticks from high. Then I got another long signal which I passed on which would have taken another full stop. Just goes to show no matter how much backtesting and confidence you may have in your given method, anything can happen on any given trade. For the week, net -$450. On average, my loss days still greatly exceed my win days which is something I will be addressing in the trade plan for 2016. Merry Christmas to all!
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 6 |
| Net $P/L: | -873 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 2 |
| Win%: | 33 |
| Avg$Win: | 42 |
| Avg$Loss: | -457 |
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Tues. 12/22
1:30pm CST - Holiday volume doldrums on my last trade waiting for a break for over 2 hours that finally went somewhere, the wrong way.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 3 |
| Net $P/L: | 149 |
| Wins: | 2 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 74 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
Monday, December 21, 2015
Mon. 12/21
1:30pm CST - Guess I'm too stubborn to throw the towel in on the year just yet. Testing a tweaked trade plan today and likely will continue in days ahead before I really close out the year.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 4 |
| Net $P/L: | 275 |
| Wins: | 3 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 91 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
Friday, December 18, 2015
Fri. 12/18
10:30am CST - It was a good attempt to end the year on an up note but I am just totally out of sync and my trade plans are just not fitting with recent CL action. Looking for trends where there's relentless chop before a nice move happens feels futile and wider stops don't help. It's been an interesting year trading mostly discretionary to say the least.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 9 |
| Net $P/L: | -1074 |
| Wins: | 0 |
| Losses: | 4 |
| Win%: | 0 |
| Avg$Win: | 0 |
| Avg$Loss: | -269 |
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Wed. 12/16
2:10pm CST - Went off plan today, really off plan! I guess it started when I got 32 ticks of slippage on my CL stop at inventory release. I should have known better. I even traded ES after the Fed rate announcement. Caught the chop beautifully! I may quit for the year right here up 30% YTD. Or may not. Hate to end the year on a down note. Que Sera, Sera...
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$673(6), ES -$700(4)
CL -$673(6), ES -$700(4)
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| Contracts: | 10 |
| Net $P/L: | -1373 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 7 |
| Win%: | 13 |
| Avg$Win: | 482 |
| Avg$Loss: | -265 |
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Tues. 12/15
1:20pm CST - Needed this.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 3 |
| Net $P/L: | 619 |
| Wins: | 2 |
| Losses: | 1 |
| Win%: | 67 |
| Avg$Win: | 361 |
| Avg$Loss: | -104 |
Monday, December 14, 2015
Mon. 12/14
1:40pm CST - Drawdown continues. Haven't had 3 losing days in a row since July. Started some work over weekend on a new method. We'll see where it leads me.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 7 |
| Net $P/L: | -427 |
| Wins: | 3 |
| Losses: | 4 |
| Win%: | 43 |
| Avg$Win: | 100 |
| Avg$Loss: | -181 |
Friday, December 11, 2015
Fri. 12/11
9:35am CST - At least I stopped when I was supposed to today. Initial long got ticked out at the low and gave me a reversal signal which was dead wrong. Final nail was then a long signal on a fake upside breakout. Time to rethink things over the weekend. For the week, net -$797.
In other news, in case you hadn't already heard, 6E (Euro futures) will be splitting ticks even finer beginning Jan. 11th so a tick will be worth $6.25 instead of $12.50 if my math is correct.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 4 |
| Net $P/L: | -595 |
| Wins: | 0 |
| Losses: | 3 |
| Win%: | 0 |
| Avg$Win: | 0 |
| Avg$Loss: | -198 |
In other news, in case you hadn't already heard, 6E (Euro futures) will be splitting ticks even finer beginning Jan. 11th so a tick will be worth $6.25 instead of $12.50 if my math is correct.
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Thurs. 12/10
1:05pm CST - My method works like crap in choppy conditions, especially when I don't recognize said conditions and quit trading. I try to limit loss days to no more than equivalent gain of 2 win days but didn't do that today. Days like this make you want to tweak things!
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 11 |
| Net $P/L: | -822 |
| Wins: | 2 |
| Losses: | 5 |
| Win%: | 29 |
| Avg$Win: | 9 |
| Avg$Loss: | -168 |
Wednesday, December 9, 2015
Wed. 12/09
1:45pm CST - Nearly a one a done day but price traded at my limit order price of 38.18 but no fill and got trailed out. Took one more which got the job done before Inventory report.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 3 |
| Net $P/L: | 309 |
| Wins: | 2 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 151 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
Tuesday, December 8, 2015
Tues. 12/08
1:50pm CST - Missed the pre-market selloff but got enough ticks after that to quit before 9am.
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 10 |
| Net $P/L: | 312 |
| Wins: | 5 |
| Losses: | 2 |
| Win%: | 71 |
| Avg$Win: | 58 |
| Avg$Loss: | -201 |
Monday, December 7, 2015
Mon. 12/07
1:50pm CST - Crude down 5% but a scratch day for me. A bit rusty after a break perhaps?
In other news, a good example of why futures are less risky than stocks. Poor Joe Campbell.
http://gawker.com/pharmaceuticals-rapscallion-martin-shkreli-now-playing-1745408324
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 10 |
| Net $P/L: | 2 |
| Wins: | 4 |
| Losses: | 4 |
| Win%: | 50 |
| Avg$Win: | 81 |
| Avg$Loss: | -81 |
In other news, a good example of why futures are less risky than stocks. Poor Joe Campbell.
http://gawker.com/pharmaceuticals-rapscallion-martin-shkreli-now-playing-1745408324
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