Friday, January 15, 2016

Fri. 1/15

10:15am CST - Well I gave it a shot, coming out swinging in the new year and trading some bigger size on a mostly mechanical ES system. Followed the plan pretty well until the 2nd and 3rd trades today when revenge crept in.  In hindsight I should not have mixed larger size with the extreme volatility we've had this year. Or had a better plan to deal with it! 4 point fixed stops in ES are just not enough right now.  This continues to be a game of inches, or thousandths of an inch. There are so many times, like my 1st trade today when a single tick would have made all the difference. Any edge anybody may proclaim to have is razor thin which is part of the challenge.  I'll have some time over the long weekend to reflect on things and figure out the plan ahead. For the week, net -$2945. YTD down 14%.
ES Contracts:12
Net $P/L: -2239
Wins: 0
Losses: 3
Avg$Win: 0
Avg$Loss: -746


  1. 4point arb stop in that kind of ES volatility is hard to just chose the wrong time to do it.........if ya persist on es...try poking holes in every assumption you make about may be surprised at some of your own answers...time away is theraputic

  2. I have been watching you for a long time. I believe that you have two problems - 1. You don't seem to have a HARD daily stop. A hard daily stop should be a percentage of your account. When you hit it, you are done. 2. You had an amazing run of getting $300 out of the market almost every day for a long while. Why didn't you stick to that? I believe you accomplish that by trading crude. Why suddenly jump into ES? It makes no sense. Also you were trading only 1 car or most 2 car in CL. Now, your leverage suddenly jumped without a systemic approach or reasoning. Your background is engineering. How does that make any logical sense? Trading supposes to be boring. Basically you do the same or similar thing every day and take a little bit out of the market. It seems that you are looking for excitement.

  3. I blame this trading jittery due to moving back to ES, it will soon pass. And if you 'average in' your entries on the first trade I believe you would have a different result.

  4. Good observations, Anon. Lack of discipline and excitement are two of our worst enemies as traders. I've had exactly the same experience. Periods of consistent progress followed by a search for more which always ends poorly.

  5. I'm with Anon. Go back to the CL plan that gave you your most consistent results. Trading $800 risk per trade on a new instrument is kind of baffling.

    I'm just a struggling trader with a risk aversion problem, so I couldn't quadruple my risk without having a stroke, but from my point of view it looked like you were on track and then deliberately stopped being successful.

  6. Personally, I think set stops are illogical. The markets volatility sets the stop. Best of luck in this tough game!

  7. Would going to a slower time frame Improve your results for your signals ? Maybe cut out some of the "noise" ?