November Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS -$4690, ZW -$1163, ZC -$443, RLM $1526, ES -$83

RESULTS FOR NOVEMBER
Contracts:	559
Net $P/L:	-4853
Wins:	58
Losses:	77
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	402
Avg$Loss:	-366

Tues. 11/30

2:05pm CST - It's good to end the month on a plus note with beans and mini-Russell behaving nicely today. Although it was a piss poor month bottom line, I'm not looking back, only forward!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $613(12), RLM $543(6), ES -$83(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	1074
Wins:	3
Losses:	4
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	605
Avg$Loss:	-185

Mon. 11/29

3:05pm CST - Back in the saddle and as disciplined as ever after the long weekend break. Traded plan today and came out ahead. As long as I can do that more days than I don't, I will be content with the outcome. Worked on some new systems over the break too which I hope to add to the mix soon if back/fwd testing pans out.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $673(15), RLM -$193(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	30
Net $P/L:	480
Wins:	3
Losses:	3
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	546
Avg$Loss:	-386

Wed. 11/24

10:30am CST - Woke up and the OEC platform was connected and seemed stable (finally, something to be thankful for!), so I decided to trade a little. Now I'm really done for the week, up net $25. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $119(6), RLM $121(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	240
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	460
Avg$Loss:	-340

Tues. 11/23

5:45pm CST - The break continued today and will likely the rest of week. OEC was only out for first 2.5 hrs. today (improvement!?). My screens were off after lunch.

Mon. 11/22

2:50pm CST - Slow day partly due to pre-Holiday markets but mostly due to OEC having lost connections to exchanges for the first 3 hours of the day and then again for an hour or so later. Bah humbug!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM -$214(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	-214
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-214

Fri. 11/19

1:40pm CST - Yesterday repeated...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM $486(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	486
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	486
Avg$Loss:	0

For the week, net was -$3811 in beans, $179 in wheat, and $394 in mini-Russell.

Thurs. 11/18

1:30pm CST - I decided my "short break" didn't apply to my RLM system so I took one signal this morning.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM $486(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	486
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	486
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 11/17

3:00pm CST - D'OH!!! Well, I'm down but not out. My account is back to where it was in mid-June. I am imposing a short break from live trading for a short spell to reassess and re-secure my discipline. Today I watched the huge early run of ZS 20+ cents straight up in the opening 4 min. but had no signals in my system. After that I was following my trade signals perfectly until, after several losers in a row in the chop, I decided to widen my stop on the last ZS short from 1.5 cents to 5 cents (target was also 5 cents). I was stopped and then my target was hit without me. So today was "almost" a nice day but that is no way to trade and "almost" does not belong in a trader's vocabulary. My bigger losing days have always exceeded my bigger winning days for awhile now. That must change.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$3211(24), RLM -$29(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	34
Net $P/L:	-3240
Wins:	1
Losses:	5
Win%:	17
Avg$Win:	486
Avg$Loss:	-745

Tues. 11/16

2:50pm CST - Corn and beans touched limit down prices midday so there were plenty of opportunities (with some thin volume and several tick spreads at times). Took an early ZS short and quit there after 4 cents. Rocked red to green in RLM and sat out a few signals that would have broke even.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1094(6), ZW $172(3), RLM $345(19)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	28
Net $P/L:	1611
Wins:	5
Losses:	2
Win%:	71
Avg$Win:	466
Avg$Loss:	-360

Mon. 11/15

3:25pm CST - Stats below include last night. Zero wins today and overtraded during the early chop in ZS. After I exceeded my loss limit in ZS, there were some good swings that I just watched.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1695(33), ZW $7(6), RLM -$893(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	54
Net $P/L:	-2581
Wins:	2
Losses:	9
Win%:	18
Avg$Win:	378
Avg$Loss:	-371

Trading the Sun. ZS Open

6:20pm CST - A quick 3-lot short for $600 to start the week. When grains open Sun. night at 6:00pm CST, there's often lots of action initially. Obviously I took this trade off too early.

Fri. 11/12

3:00pm CST - Internet outage midday for a couple hours didn't help but didn't hurt much either. Missed the major selloff in grains to limit down levels (corn and beans). Traded light in wheat in final 15 mins. betting on that trading lower near the close since those stuck long in corn and beans would want to hedge over the weekend. What do I know? Nothing, as wheat proved.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1169(6), ZW -$234(14), RLM -$58(20)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	40
Net $P/L:	877
Wins:	5
Losses:	7
Win%:	42
Avg$Win:	520
Avg$Loss:	-246

For the week, net was $2117 in beans, -$312 in wheat, and $705 in mini-Russell.

Thurs. 11/11

2:00pm CST - Would have been a $500 better day if RLM had filled me at my 731.30 buy limit order an hour ago. But them's the breaks! It traded there but didn't fill me. During backtest period when I saw that on the charts, I figured on getting filled half the time so it is built into expectations. But still!

Happy Veteran's Day and thanks to all who have served!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $455(21), RLM $457(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	36
Net $P/L:	911
Wins:	4
Losses:	3
Win%:	57
Avg$Win:	443
Avg$Loss:	-287

Wed. 11/10

2:15pm CST - Choppy opening in ZS cost me there but RLM made up for it. Of course I have to screw things up a wee bit each day. My last RLM trade I took off 5 ticks early costing me $250. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually. I will learn eventually....

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$829(30), RLM $1207(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	45
Net $P/L:	378
Wins:	4
Losses:	5
Win%:	44
Avg$Win:	594
Avg$Loss:	-400

Tues. 11/09

3:15pm CST - Beans were wild today and nearly hit the +70 limit up early in day. Made an error missing a signal in RLM system which would have made that green on the day. I've added an alert to sound so I that shouldn't happen again.

Will fill in rest of data below once OEC's servers come back up. They crashed right after close it seems. Can't even get in their website.

Update: Apparently it was a problem with my IP address being "locked"? I was the only customer affected.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1236(10), ZW $29(9), RLM -$608(20)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	39
Net $P/L:	657
Wins:	6
Losses:	4
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	332
Avg$Loss:	-334

Mon. 11/08

3:55pm CST - No traction on most trades although I was up $700 mid-morning only to give it back thanks mostly to an RLM trade stopping out to the tick.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $86(27), ZW -$106(6), RLM -$293(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	48
Net $P/L:	-313
Wins:	5
Losses:	6
Win%:	45
Avg$Win:	236
Avg$Loss:	-249

Fri. 11/05

4:00pm CDT - Not the week I wanted to start November but it's over and in the books. Changed things around too much after the Monday loss which hurt performance rest of week. More discipline and rigor going forward next week.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$236(24), ZW -$24(12), RLM -$29(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	46
Net $P/L:	-289
Wins:	4
Losses:	7
Win%:	36
Avg$Win:	399
Avg$Loss:	-269

For the week, net was -$4400 in beans, -$443 in corn, -$1030 in wheat, and $174 in mini-Russell.

I haven't updated my blog on ZS System performance curve since May. You may recall I stopped trading this specific system on 9/16/10 due to the drawdown being more than expected from backtest results. As spooztrader warned me, the P/L curve would likely bounce back up as soon as I quit and it has (after a bit of a rollercoaster ride)! Below is the proof:

On another note, here's what I was testing this week with 1-lots and moved to 5-lots today (1 winner, 1 loser today). I will continue trading this RLM system going forward and hope for similar results. It is a simple S/R system that enters on retraces and has a target and stop loss of 10 ticks each.

Thurs. 11/04

2:15pm CDT - Higher Reward:Risk (RR) ratio is all the buzz these days in trading blogs and forums. But I'm convinced that it's all BS really. Let's assume a 1-lot entry and a fixed target and stop with no scale in/out, no trailing stops, no slippage, no commissions, etc. The higher your RR, the lower your win% will be, and they will be inversely proportional. If your RR is 1:1, your win% might be 55%, 2:1 might be 45%, 3:1 might be 35%, 1:2 might be 70%, etc. This week has reminded me of this basic fact more so than most. Today was another day I used tighter stops for ZS and got stopped out and lost. Had I been using the same stop levels (lower R:R) Tues, Wed., and today that I had used on Monday, I would have recovered much of what was lost Monday because many of my stops wouldn't not have been hit. But you never know what kind of day it's going to be (choppy or trending) until it has happened. I need to get back to a single system that works. Not messing with the criteria and changing the variables day by day. I know better.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1686(24), ZC -$15(3), RLM $133(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	30
Net $P/L:	-1568
Wins:	3
Losses:	5
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	80
Avg$Loss:	-362

Wed. 11/03

2:30pm CDT - Nothing much.... ZS had lots of action but I just watched after the initial 2 trades, the latter of which I took off early. To punish myself I said no more trading in grains for the day. RLM stopped me out to the tick on 2 of the 7 trades I made there.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $163(12), RLM -$125(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	38
Wins:	4
Losses:	5
Win%:	44
Avg$Win:	217
Avg$Loss:	-166

Tues. 11/02

1:40pm CDT - No great strides today. I went back to tighter stops on ZS and of course I get stopped out on the very first trade that would have been a nice $1100 winner. Starting to test out a new RLM (TF) system.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$128(25), RLM $196(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	27
Net $P/L:	67
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	286
Avg$Loss:	-539

Mon. 11/01

1:35pm CDT - Nothing but losers today as the sole winner was last night after the grains opened. These things happen but days like this make you question everything about any "edge" you may think you have. I had to look back to see when I last had a losing day worse than this and I had to go way back to March 2, 2009. So maybe it's just an outlier? Either way, time to do some more homework. Losses would have been much less if I had a fixed stop loss (which I recently got away from). Instead, losses were greater because the swings today were greater so I gave trades more room to work, as per plan, but they stopped out anyways.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2514(27), ZC -$428(3), ZW -$1006(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	36
Net $P/L:	-3948
Wins:	1
Losses:	7
Win%:	13
Avg$Win:	660
Avg$Loss:	-658