Quarter 2 2010 Trading Results

I could get used to this.

June Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS $3408, GCL $6592

RESULTS FOR JUNE
Contracts:	391
Net $P/L:	10000
Wins:	54
Losses:	50
Win%:	52
Avg$Win:	534
Avg$Loss:	-377

To the penny

12:00pm CDT - If crude oil would have gone up 6 more cents (an easy feat for crude) I would have booked a $2800 day. I very nearly took my long crude position off around 76.50 but my system and trading plan do not call for moving targets once they are set. As the 9:30 CDT inventory report hit, I thought for sure the "noise" would push it up enough but it did not. It fell off quickly, bounced back up (instilling further hope that my target would hit), but then fell back and stopped me out for a 29 cent loss. Such is life and trading!

A soybean short near open worked beautifully even though I captured less than 20% of the huge down move and gap fill. One final crude long at 75.90 locked in 28 cents. And after entering the daily total in my Excel spreadsheet, I knew I had to stop trading for the day and month. My net total for June is EXACTLY, to the penny, $10,000.00. If that's not a sign to stop, I don't know what is!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1169(6), GCL -$627(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	543
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	860
Avg$Loss:	-1178

Tues. 6/29

1:55pm CDT - No crude signals today and looking at the ZS chart (with 17 cents total range) it is surprising that I could have lost. Took 2 system trades that both promptly stopped out and that is my limit. Although I was tempted and ended up taking 1 half sized discretionary trade that earned 1.5 cents.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $613(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	-752
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	210
Avg$Loss:	-481

Mon. 6/28

1:15pm CDT - Good start to the week. Nice to see beans come to life late in the day. It was like watching paint dry earlier.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $688(12), GCL $878(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	1566
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	522
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 6/25

2:00pm CDT - Tough day to end the week. Missed a nice long that moved crude up $1.50 in less than 10 min. What caused that??

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$962(12), GCL $425(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	-537
Wins:	2
Losses:	4
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	421
Avg$Loss:	-345

For the week, could never get back above zero line... Net was -$780 in crude and -$30 in beans.

Thurs. 6/24

1:30pm CDT - Choppy day except in the beans.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $625(12), GCL -$321(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	305
Wins:	4
Losses:	1
Win%:	80
Avg$Win:	321
Avg$Loss:	-978

Wed. FOMC Day

2:20pm CDT - Tough grinder of a day. And distracting too with the World Cup USA match going on - congrats Team USA!! And the longest tennis match in history on TV too with American John Isner tied against a French player 53-53 in the 5th set! Hope he can pull it out.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $576(12), GCL $356(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	22
Net $P/L:	932
Wins:	3
Losses:	4
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	625
Avg$Loss:	-236

Tues. 6/22

1:50pm CDT - Losers all around! $600 mistake today on my crude system as priced moved 2 ticks from the line I am to move stop to BE. Close enough I figured so I moved stop to BE and got stopped out of course. Within 5 min., price hit my 30 cent target without me onboard...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$961(12), GCL -$767(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	-1728
Wins:	0
Losses:	5
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-346

Mon. 6/21

1:30pm CDT - My early short on crude was right idea but my stop was not. Oh well. Mondays...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $688(12), GCL -$475(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	213
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	392
Avg$Loss:	-482

Rollover Friday

11:30am CDT - Started trading the Q Crude contract and the X Soybean contract today. It's a little odd that if I had traded the N CL contract I would have had no signal today in my main crude system and if I would have traded the N ZS contract I would have had 2 losers today!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $569(6), GCL $850(9)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	1419
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	473
Avg$Loss:	0

For the week, I made $3050 in beans and $300 in crude.

Soybean Rollover

1:55pm CDT - Soybean volume much of day was slightly greater on the November contract. I think I'll switch to that tomorrow or Monday. Grains are one of those strange commodities where you don't always rollover to the next month. Confusing? Yes. That's why it's best to watch the volume or pull up the next contract's DOM and watch them side by side.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $613(12), GCL $146(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	759
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	253
Avg$Loss:	0

Bad Crude

1:45pm CDT - Once again, crude sucks. Had 4 losers there, 2 of which had 2-3 ticks of slippage to boot! These were all in my "newer" crude system which I am still testing and may revert to paper trading after the past couple days. My regular crude system (that trades at most once a day) missed giving me a long signal by 1 tick this morning. It would have been a winner for $1000+.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $613(12), GCL -$1335(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	-722
Wins:	2
Losses:	4
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	307
Avg$Loss:	-334

Ben Franklin

2:00pm CDT - 258 years ago today, Ben Franklin flew his kite in a lightning storm. To celebrate, I squeezed out 2 Ben Franklins which was nearly 7 before trading crude.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $676(12), GCL -$468(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	208
Wins:	2
Losses:	4
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	451
Avg$Loss:	-174

Flag Day Monday

1:45pm CDT - Happy Flag Day USA! A good start to week today even though my lack of discipline following plan cost me $100 as I took off my bean long trade 1.5 ticks before target as it was just to painfully slow to watch and I really didn't think it would get to target. Of course it slowly meandered 5 ticks past target! Mondays...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $576(12), GCL $1113(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	1689
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	1085
Avg$Loss:	-481

New High

12:45pm CDT - As Chicago is high on life with the Blackhawks celebration parade and rally today, so too is my equity for the year. I finally broke out of my 3-week drawdown and made a new high for the year. Beans didn't help today but would have added to instead of subtracting from the total but I was stopped to the tick on a short trade.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$962(12), GCL $1774(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	812
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	887
Avg$Loss:	-481

For the week, I made $540 in beans and $2700 in crude.

Stanley Cup Champs

12:00pm CDT - After a short night's sleep due to the Chicago Blackhawks winning the Stanley Cup last night in overtime and the subsequent partying, it was tough to get up this morning. But glad I didn't miss today as the results show. Beans were wild and more than 20 cents range today. Not sure why and don't really care but I hope it continues!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1169(6), GCL $959(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	2128
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	747
Avg$Loss:	-114

Inches

2:30pm CDT - Blah is how I did with new crude system today. 7 trades there, 4 full stopouts, 1 out at BE (which I count as a loser since commission was not covered), and 2 that didn't hit target but I scraped out a profit on anyways. One of the full stops I lost $200 on as it stopped me at the low tick before reversing to my $300 target - so that single tick made the difference in a par day vs. a losing day on CL. This IS a game of inches (or fractions of an inch) in today's case.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $607(6), GCL -$461(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	146
Wins:	3
Losses:	5
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	322
Avg$Loss:	-164

Tues. 8th

1:55pm CDT - 5 trades in my additional crude system added +$38 to the total. Didn't manage all those properly but I'm still testing things out. Beans, on the other hand, I nearly overrode my system and got out early. But I sat on my hands and actually exited 6 contracts at my limit order at the high of the day, 9.3750.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $688(12), GCL -$971(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	-283
Wins:	4
Losses:	4
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	404
Avg$Loss:	-475

Blogger down

2:45pm CDT - Blogger was actually down most afternoon until now. I guess, just like brokers, they aren't perfect! "Blogger status: We're aware of isolated access issues in certain regions within the US. We're investigating this now and will follow-up as soon as we have more information to share. Thanks for your patience in the meantime."

Followed plan for the most part today. Soybeans were just dead with less than a 6 cent range today. Wish I could know that in advance. Now THAT would be the holy grail!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$962(12), GCL $1393(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	432
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	704
Avg$Loss:	-325

Early exits

12:30pm CDT - Here's to the end of this mistake-filled week! Although it's nice to make mistakes and still come out a winner, the week still sucked. Having had "opportunity cost" drilled into my noggin in all those economics classes I took once upon a time, the regret I feel is real but will pass.

Today's mistakes "cost" me $600 in beans, and $200 in crude. No point in going into details but suffice it to say I took trades off earlier than target and those targets easily hit just minutes later. Partly to blame is my mindset mentioned yesterday that I just wanted to lock in gains and not put more of my gains at risk. This is not how to trade and I must stick to my plan. Something to work on next week. Now it's Miller time!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $569(6), GCL $1630(9)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	2199
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	863
Avg$Loss:	-389

For the week, I lost $1250 in beans but made $4100 in crude.

Green Day

1:30pm CDT - 5 day losing streak is over and no time too soon. My 2 lot crude trade I cut short by 25 cents but took 5 cents out of it. It was my last trade and I just needed to lock it in for the day and not have another green day turn to red. But once again if I had been patient and just followed my plan, I would have had 5 more Ben Franklins in my pocket.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $688(12), GCL $1069(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	1757
Wins:	4
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	439
Avg$Loss:	0

4 does not equal 2

1:45pm CDT - I'm an idiot - it's not funny how a drawdown messes with your head. I'm not sure what I was thinking when I made 4 bean trades today since my limit is 2, especially looking at the no range chart! I've been very disciplined this year but had a lapse today. I will get over it and will recover the extra $500 I lost that I shouldn't have. (my normal 2 system trades would have both been losers.)

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1473(24), GCL $1228(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	29
Net $P/L:	-245
Wins:	1
Losses:	4
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	1228
Avg$Loss:	-368

Drawdown Review

2:15pm CDT - My crude system I've been trading has had a max drawdown of around $9300 back in Oct. '08. Recent drawdown has peaked at $6100 (so far). My soybean system has had a max drawdown of around $9400 in May/June '09. (Note to self, could this be seasonal?) Current drawdown has been $3600 (so far). So although I don't like the funk things are in lately, I should plow ahead. Drawdowns are part of trading. Unless/until I come up with better systems/methods, drawdowns reach levels outside of historical norms, or I lose my confidence for other reasons, I will continue trading these systems.

Today was frustrating as I was up over $1000 at one point. A new method I'm still testing out had 6 signals today in crude. I took 1 of them which was the only loser of the 6! Mondays...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1037(12), GCL $196(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	22
Net $P/L:	-841
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	362
Avg$Loss:	-782