Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Risk:Reward

1:15pm CDT - Caught a nice early short in Crude but ZS chopped me again.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$321(4), GCL $702(4)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:8
Net $P/L:382
Wins:1
Losses:2
Win%:33
Avg$Win:702
Avg$Loss:-160

Risk:Reward ratios are all the talk on trading sites and blogs. I agree they are good to look at but they aren't what makes you profitable (IMHO). Take my ZS trades this month so far, 7 winners, 16 losers or 30% win rate. Total net gain on winners was $2203, total net loss on losers was -$2514 (so I'm down on month on ZS). I risk 1.5 cents and my reward is 4 cents (both fixed). Although I haven't specifically looked at each trade, I'd be willing to bet that if my risk had been 4 cents for a reward of 1.5 cents, my win% would be ~70% and I'd still be net the same dollars month to date. Bottom line, don't be fooled into thinking you can be profitable by simply targeting a better risk:reward ratio. It ain't that simple.

1 comment:

  1. Risk:reward is a function of the empirical distribution of your PnL, not so much a function of short-run samples where there's a ratio of potential gain to potential loss.

    We can discuss this in more detail on my blog.

    ReplyDelete