Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Restart

3:20pm CDT - I felt good going into the day but my signals probed the short side most of day and didn't do well as is obvious from the charts. Not the restart I was looking for after not trading for a week but then again I'm not a beginner (although many days it feels like it) so beginner's luck does not apply unfortunately. I'll have to look at filtering signals a bit on days like today as I was not trading the longer term trend.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:6
Net $P/L:-466
Wins:1
Losses:5
Win%:17
Avg$Win:9
Avg$Loss:-95
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4 comments:

  1. E-Mini PlayerMay 26, 2009 at 4:23 PM

    "I'll have to look at filtering signals a bit on days like today as I was not trading the longer term trend."

    The trend was clearly up on 3-min, 5-min, etc. I watch ES traders on StockTwits, and noticed a lot of them were taking counter-trend trades from 895 area all the way up to 908, and most of them were exiting on losses. On a big momentum up move like today, I've found it's best to try to enter in direction of trend or just stay out.

    Direction aside; your Avg Win vs. Avg Loss is problematic, IMHO.

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  2. AnonymousMay 26, 2009 at 5:43 PM

    The strange thing about trend day is it always looks like it is going to be the top/bottom but then it just keeps going and going. By the end of day you wonder why you miss such an obvious signal, price stays on one side of a MA all day long.

    ReplyDelete
  3. MBAGearheadMay 27, 2009 at 8:02 AM

    E-Mini, the 1 win was just a scratch for a tick so you can't conclude much from avg.win, avg.loss today. I actually was up 2 pts. (going for more) on that one and set stop to breakeven and got stopped of course. Just wasn't my day!

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  4. E-Mini PlayerMay 27, 2009 at 9:15 AM

    MBA, when calculating Avg Win/Avg Loss, I don't count the break-even/scratch trades.

    But if you just plot the Avg Win vs Avg Loss from the day you started this blog, the trend is apparent; most of the times the avg loss is greater than the avg win. That means your method needs to hit a 80+% win rate (on some days 90+ %) just to break-even, which is unrealistic and unsustainable IMHO.

    Just some advice looking in from the outside. Best of luck!

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