Thurs. 1/14

1:30pm CST - Gave back 2 days of gains.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $9(3), ES -$1721(14)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	-1712
Wins:	3
Losses:	6
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	135
Avg$Loss:	-353

Wed. 1/13

2:45pm CST - Tons of opportunity everywhere yet again.  Still hard to be happy hitting singles when I see grand-slams all over the place when reviewing charts after the fact.  My early 4-lot ES short could have earned an extra $10k+ if held into the mid-afternoon lows.  But obviously 60 pt. days in ES are not the norm so one must be content following the plan.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $102(2), ES $930(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	1033
Wins:	5
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	207
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 1/12

2:50pm CST - Tons of opportunity today everywhere!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	787
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	787
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 1/11

2:10pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	-813
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-813

Week of 1/04 - 1/08

3:00pm CST - Thought I'd try posting at the end of the week just to shake things up a bit.  I'll likely resume posting daily.  The trade plan is still in a state of flux and I'm still wrestling with the best way for me to make some gains this year.  I'd like ES to get back into the mix due to its scale-ability so I started live testing in that this week.  Mon. and Tues. didn't go so well. Stopped by 2 ticks, then 4 ticks on 4-lots before price hit targets without me.

Wed. and Thurs. were positive but gave some back with CL and NQ.  I like the granularity of NQ but quickly remembered how fast it can rip up or down 20+ ticks in the blink of an eye.  Guess I picked one of the most volatile days on Thurs. to test trading in that symbol. We'll see if I give it another chance.

Friday went well if you exclude the 6E system trade (no chart) that shorted 2-lot after the Jobs Report and price rallied to take me out at a full stop loss. That hurt.  A reminder that starting next week, 6E futures go to half-ticks (like the 6J did last year). This will equate to current depth of market at any given price being cut in half so I would expect more slippage. Not sure what this will do to my 6E system.

For the week, each day was: -$811, -$811, +$335, +282, -$221 = net loss -$1226.  Would have been a BE week if not for 6E trade.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$645(4), ES $1258(22), NQ -$580(13), 6E -$1259(2)

RESULTS FOR WEEK
Contracts:	41
Net $P/L:	-1226
Wins:	8
Losses:	13
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	363
Avg$Loss:	-318

I've updated my $Range spreadsheet to see how the same 2-hour time period has changed in 2015. Click here if you want the Excel file with all the data. Most interesting was how 2015 compares to the 1st week this year with the crazy volatility! NQ and ES were equal to CL!

2015 Trade Analysis

It was a mostly up year but there were a couple sizable drawdowns, the last of which I'm still in the middle of.  Overall my accounts gained net +$5,701 or +24% of my trading equity at the start of the year.  Nothing to write home about but percentage-wise, better than most hedge funds and better than the stock indexes this year.

The data:

My biggest success was system trading 6E but it's good to know I had some slight success discretionary trading CL.  I'll have to think more in days and weeks ahead to finalize a plan for 2016.  Stay tuned and Happy New Year!

Quarter 4 2015 Trading Results

December Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ES -$700(4), CL -$2800(76)

RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
Contracts:	80
Net $P/L:	-3501
Wins:	25
Losses:	32
Win%:	44
$Commissions:	303
Avg$Win:	133
Avg$Loss:	-214

Wed. 12/23

11:25am CST - Last day testing my current method based on these results! I patiently waited until after inventory report release.  Got a good long signal but then got a reverse signal and took a full stop on 3 lot 2-ticks from high.  Then I got another long signal which I passed on which would have taken another full stop.  Just goes to show no matter how much backtesting and confidence you may have in your given method, anything can happen on any given trade.  For the week, net -$450.  On average, my loss days still greatly exceed my win days which is something I will be addressing in the trade plan for 2016.  Merry Christmas to all!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	-873
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	42
Avg$Loss:	-457

Tues. 12/22

1:30pm CST - Holiday volume doldrums on my last trade waiting for a break for over 2 hours that finally went somewhere, the wrong way.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	149
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	74
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 12/21

1:30pm CST - Guess I'm too stubborn to throw the towel in on the year just yet. Testing a tweaked trade plan today and likely will continue in days ahead before I really close out the year.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	275
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	91
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 12/18

10:30am CST - It was a good attempt to end the year on an up note but I am just totally out of sync and my trade plans are just not fitting with recent CL action.  Looking for trends where there's relentless chop before a nice move happens feels futile and wider stops don't help.  It's been an interesting year trading mostly discretionary to say the least.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	-1074
Wins:	0
Losses:	4
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-269

Wed. 12/16

2:10pm CST - Went off plan today, really off plan!  I guess it started when I got 32 ticks of slippage on my CL stop at inventory release.  I should have known better.  I even traded ES after the Fed rate announcement. Caught the chop beautifully!  I may quit for the year right here up 30% YTD.  Or may not.  Hate to end the year on a down note. Que Sera, Sera...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$673(6), ES -$700(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	-1373
Wins:	1
Losses:	7
Win%:	13
Avg$Win:	482
Avg$Loss:	-265

Tues. 12/15

1:20pm CST - Needed this.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	619
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	361
Avg$Loss:	-104

Mon. 12/14

1:40pm CST - Drawdown continues. Haven't had 3 losing days in a row since July. Started some work over weekend on a new method.  We'll see where it leads me.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	-427
Wins:	3
Losses:	4
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	100
Avg$Loss:	-181

Fri. 12/11

9:35am CST - At least I stopped when I was supposed to today.  Initial long got ticked out at the low and gave me a reversal signal which was dead wrong. Final nail was then a long signal on a fake upside breakout.  Time to rethink things over the weekend.  For the week, net -$797.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	-595
Wins:	0
Losses:	3
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-198

In other news, in case you hadn't already heard, 6E (Euro futures) will be splitting ticks even finer beginning Jan. 11th so a tick will be worth $6.25 instead of $12.50 if my math is correct. 

Thurs. 12/10

1:05pm CST - My method works like crap in choppy conditions, especially when I don't recognize said conditions and quit trading.  I try to limit loss days to no more than equivalent gain of 2 win days but didn't do that today.  Days like this make you want to tweak things!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	-822
Wins:	2
Losses:	5
Win%:	29
Avg$Win:	9
Avg$Loss:	-168

Wed. 12/09

1:45pm CST - Nearly a one a done day but price traded at my limit order price of 38.18 but no fill and got trailed out.  Took one more which got the job done before Inventory report.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	309
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	151
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 12/08

1:50pm CST - Missed the pre-market selloff but got enough ticks after that to quit before 9am.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	312
Wins:	5
Losses:	2
Win%:	71
Avg$Win:	58
Avg$Loss:	-201

Mon. 12/07

1:50pm CST - Crude down 5% but a scratch day for me.  A bit rusty after a break perhaps?

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	2
Wins:	4
Losses:	4
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	81
Avg$Loss:	-81

In other news, a good example of why futures are less risky than stocks. Poor Joe Campbell.
http://gawker.com/pharmaceuticals-rapscallion-martin-shkreli-now-playing-1745408324

November Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $21(1), CL $2055(106)

RESULTS FOR NOVEMBER
Contracts:	107
Net $P/L:	2076
Wins:	53
Losses:	28
Win%:	65
$Commissions:	409
Avg$Win:	137
Avg$Loss:	-186

Mon. 11/23

1:45pm CST - Taking a holiday break rest of week and likely the next week too. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	448
Wins:	4
Losses:	4
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	291
Avg$Loss:	-179

Fri. 11/20

12:55pm CST - Tough conditions again. I'm seeing very poor trade management decisions lately on when I add to a trade.  Only 5 of past 15 "2-contract" trades have been winners. I'm going to have to study this more. For the week, net -$338.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	-587
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	82
Avg$Loss:	-250

Thurs. 11/19

1:30pm CST - Glad to be done before the dead chop.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	309
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	103
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 11/18 + Trade idea

1:55pm CST - Much better day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	311
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	183
Avg$Loss:	-119

A quick pic of something I noticed today I plan to investigate as a trade idea. I literally have hundreds of snapshots on my hard drive of various ideas I've come up with over the years. 99% of them are junk but it only takes one...

Tues. 11/17

12:50pm CST - Holding for a bit larger targets on a choppy day does not work so well.  Another frustrating day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	-680
Wins:	4
Losses:	6
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	60
Avg$Loss:	-153

Mon. 11/16

12:50pm CST - Gave the 1st trade a bit too much rope and it eventually hung itself and nearly me.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	309
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	248
Avg$Loss:	-341

Fri. 11/13

1:35pm CST - I'm my own worst obstacle to success.  Could have been 1 and done or 2 and done but had to battle it out with a couple more trades.  Overall good week though, net +$620.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	307
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	128
Avg$Loss:	-39

Thurs. 11/12

1:45pm CST - Extreme frustration after 2nd trade stop out but kept composure and finished for day with a couple more trades.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	307
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	140
Avg$Loss:	-112

Wed. 11/11

10:45am CST - Back to BE on the week. Happy Veteran's Day!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	309
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	103
Avg$Loss:	0