No Trades

1:50pm CST - Suffice it to say, in case it's not obvious by now, that any days I don't post results I had no trades. ZS has had some decent ranges lately but I have had no signals 3 days in a row now in my ZS system. This makes for some boring chart watching but it does allow time to research and work on other systems. I need to get more productive in that regard.

January Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$901(7), NQ -$581(46), ZS $2304(38)

RESULTS FOR JANUARY
Contracts:	91
Net $P/L:	822
Wins:	18
Losses:	28
Win%:	39
$Commissions:	348
Avg$Win:	314
Avg$Loss:	-173

Wed. 1/30

2:00pm CST - As mentioned a few days ago, I thought my NQ method should work well in any market. Well it hasn't worked well at all in NQ the few days tested so I decided to test CL today. Inventory day is usually pretty good ranges.  Not so today (even after FOMC).  Anyways, it's back to the drawing board for that method. I did have a great idea while losing trade after trade today, however, and plan to backtest that soon.  And in case you were wondering, yes, all of my ideas are great!  At least up to the point they become not-so-great.  Unlike my trades, I do not keep statistics on how often that occurs.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	-901
Wins:	0
Losses:	7
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-129

Tues. 1/29

2:20pm CST - New NQ method is proving trickier than I expected.  ZS was trying today...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $515(2), NQ $8(20)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	22
Net $P/L:	522
Wins:	5
Losses:	6
Win%:	45
Avg$Win:	179
Avg$Loss:	-62

Mon. 1/28

3:10pm CST -

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$135(2), NQ -$281(12)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	14
Net $P/L:	-417
Wins:	2
Losses:	5
Win%:	29
Avg$Win:	130
Avg$Loss:	-135

Fri. 1/25

2:05pm CST - Got the live feel of a new method I've been working on with NQ today. It has some discretion involved so of course I didn't execute it very well!  But it has good potential I think and should work in most markets.  I circumvented my ZS system this afternoon by taking profit early on last trade due to the extreme deadness in the tape. Figured it was a Fri. afternoon too. It then drifted painfully up and hit my target in the final 30 sec. of the session.  Lesson learned for opportunity cost of $450.  For the week, net +$1027.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $529(4), NQ -$307(14)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	223
Wins:	3
Losses:	6
Win%:	44
Avg$Win:	235
Avg$Loss:	-80

Thurs. 1/24

2:30pm CST - Officially no system trades yesterday or today but I accidentally thought there was a signal today and entered a position and was halfway to target when I realized my error.  I ended up tightening my target a bit but got some "free" money today.  Hopefully I remember this when a future error goes the other way!

I saw this in other good news today.  Hopefully they can help put some teeth into the NFA and better protect our funds.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	290
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	290
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 1/22

2:10pm CST - Nice to get filled at the low tick of the afternoon.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	515
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	515
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 1/18

1:40pm CST - System was out of sync today.  For the week, net loss -$239.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	-1606
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-803

Thurs. 1/17

2:05pm CST - No trades yesterday and 2 winners today.  It's nice when they take virtually no heat.

Ran across this graphic. I agree with 90% of it but disagree with Pros not liking volatility and only Amateurs trade 1 security all year and close out positions at end of day.  WTF?

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	604
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	302
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 1/15

2:00pm CST - Big move up overnight and then a slow dead choppy drift down during the pit session. I am happy to make it out positive after seeing my unrealized at -$1500 at its worst point today.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	194
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	679
Avg$Loss:	-485

Mon. 1/14

2:00pm CST - Lots of opportunity in ZS today with it up 3.3% on the day.  If I had held my winning long trade to the top, I could have booked $3000 more.  But I don't play the woulda, coulda, shoulda game!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	569
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	879
Avg$Loss:	-310

Fri. 1/11

1:20pm CST - Got off the sidelines after my old ZS system gave a couple good signals after the 11am ag reports came out.  Of course I didn't know they were good until after I took profits but good start to 2013!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	829
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	415
Avg$Loss:	0

Happy New Year

3:20pm CST - Happy New Year to all! I'm still here and just getting back into things after a nice break with family and friends.  I'm looking forward to my first trade of the year but I'm in no hurry.  I'm backtesting more ideas (on ZS) and hope to complete that within the next couple weeks.  In the meantime, my old ZS system, last shown here, is making new highs so I am considering throwing that back into the trading mix. 

Will update when I have more...

PS - I've added a new link at the right with my 2012 statement summaries.

2012 Trade Analysis

Another year in the books. Where does the time go?  And another year failing to reach the 100% return goal!  It's also the 2nd year in a row where I am gross positive but net negative thanks to the cost of commissions and/or lack of a sustained edge.  Over the past 12 months, I took $56,391 and turned it into $50,013.  That's a net loss of $6,378 or -11%.  Who cares that my gross gain was +$3,063?  Not me...

 

The most glaring thing I noticed about the numbers is that I am in a long-term, love/hate relationship with ZS. ZS was my biggest gain of 2012, biggest loss of 2011, and my biggest gain of 2010.  I also noticed that R:R alone does not equal success.  My best month (Oct.) was not the highest R:R ratio and my 2nd best month (May) was actually one of the lower R:R ratios at 0.8.

Isolating the curves for the symbols I traded most CL, NQ, ZS yields this look:

Finally, a few more charts looking at all trades:

That last chart seems to show fairly clearly that trades I exit more quickly tend to be losers and trades held longer (6+ min.) tend to win more often.  The conclusion in past years has been similar.  I think this is best explained because the longer you hold a trade, the more likely you are to overcome the spread (or make it negligible) because price has time to move away from your entry.  A trade held for 0 seconds, the extreme example, means you bought at bid and instantly sold at ask, or vice versa.  A 1 tick loser no matter what!

Needless to say, I am still searching for a methodology and system(s) that have a consistent edge that I can trade.  Perhaps 2013 will be the year!  Onward we go... 

Quarter 4 2012 Trading Results

 

December Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$1574(208), GC $291(47), ZS $1895(13), NQ -$1167(56), $ ES -$635(4)

RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
Contracts:	328
Net $P/L:	-1189
Wins:	119
Losses:	135
Win%:	47
$Commissions:	1356
Avg$Win:	88
Avg$Loss:	-86

Thurs. 12/20

3:00pm CST - In day-trading broker news, SEC issues a fine.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $16(1), GC $401(2), NQ -$264(9)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	153
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	152
Avg$Loss:	-228

Wed. 12/19

3:35pm CST -

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $8(5), NQ $36(13)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	44
Wins:	4
Losses:	5
Win%:	44
Avg$Win:	135
Avg$Loss:	-99

Tues. 12/18

2:40pm CST - The losing trades were too ugly to show so you only get to see one. I may soon put GC in my rearview mirror and never look back.  It had more than a $3000 range per contract but managed to trick me into the wrong position every time.  Will shut things down for the year by the end of the week and prepare for 2013. 

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $38(5), GC -$1540(9), NQ -$578(26), ZS $829(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	44
Net $P/L:	-1251
Wins:	7
Losses:	13
Win%:	35
Avg$Win:	194
Avg$Loss:	-201

Mon. 12/17

3:20pm CST -
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$253(3), GC $6(1), NQ -$361(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-609
Wins:	2
Losses:	5
Win%:	29
Avg$Win:	5
Avg$Loss:	-124

Fri. 12/14

2:05pm CST - Got caught in the chop today with CL having less than a dollar range on the whole day.  Hard to make money trading that.  I should have stopped at +$300 in hindsight.  For the week, net gain +$1102.

Got to wonder what it says when trading educators/mentors battle it out in a trading competition and the winner of each round is typically the one that loses the least amount of money!  Not many winning examples here.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$597(15), GC $237(12)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	27
Net $P/L:	-360
Wins:	12
Losses:	14
Win%:	46
Avg$Win:	69
Avg$Loss:	-85

Thurs. 12/13

9:25am CST - No trades yesterday.  3 each today in crude and gold.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $297(3), GC $207(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	503
Wins:	5
Losses:	1
Win%:	83
Avg$Win:	120
Avg$Loss:	-94

Tues. 12/11

11:20am CST - 2 trades in ZS System today which I started trading around end of Sept. but had recently scaled back lot size.  The reason is pretty clear on profit curve below.  It was rocking up all summer (thanks to drought?) but has been mostly flat since I started trading it.  It uses tick data so I can't backtest any further than I already have.  I will continue tracking the hypothetical results and will likely continue trading it with small size until I come up with a more profitable use of my capital.

I've been meaning to post some news links well worth reading. Thanks to Cory for the 1st one:
High-Speed Traders Profit at Expense of Ordinary Investors
High-Frequency Trading: A Grave Threat to the Markets and the Economy
NFA takes emergency enforcement action against FXDD

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	544
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	929
Avg$Loss:	-385

Mon. 12/10

10:35am CST - Just 1 trade today. Busy with system development and testing...

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	415
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	415
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 12/07

8:50am CST - I lied.  I couldn't stay away.  For the week, net loss -$628.

RESULTS FOR DAY
GC Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	1016
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	1016
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 12/06

3:00pm CST - I need a long weekend!  Back next week...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$560(9), ES -$635(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	-1195
Wins:	0
Losses:	8
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-150

Wed. 12/05

11:30am CST - Done early after hitting my max loss I had set for the day.  Final trade was nearly a big winner which would have ended the day >+$200 but it stopped out by 7 ticks instead.  My quick scalping "experiment" is officially over.  I had planned to go all week but after 4 days of too much work for little/no net gain, only my broker is happy.  I did learn alot though and have more ideas to work on.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$723(57), GC $48(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	62
Net $P/L:	-675
Wins:	28
Losses:	24
Win%:	54
Avg$Win:	40
Avg$Loss:	-75

Tues. 12/04

2:45pm CST - Up early but was pushing for >$300 but never got there.  2 decent winners got me back above par, both scaled in 2-lots, first in CL, last one in GC.  Trading like this is certainly reminding me how efficient the markets are.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$264(73), GC $287(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	76
Net $P/L:	23
Wins:	36
Losses:	34
Win%:	51
Avg$Win:	43
Avg$Loss:	-45

Mon. 12/03

1:10pm CST - Decided to continue the quick scalping this week to see how things shake out.  Many of you may think I'm playing with fire based on my past discretionary efforts.  But a benefit in studying history is so that you don't repeat it.  That's my thoughts for now anyways.  Gold was not very golden today but otherwise a good day.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $466(37), GC -$367(11), ZS $107(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	49
Net $P/L:	204
Wins:	18
Losses:	28
Win%:	39
Avg$Win:	82
Avg$Loss:	-45