Saturday, January 1, 2011

2011 Goal and 2010 Trade Analysis

Well it wasn't the year I was shooting for but it was positive in many respects so no complaints. Starting this year, I'm going to start posting my monthly statements. I've never posted the size of my trading accounts before but since my "Calling all Bloggers" post asked for more transparency/inspiration from others, why not belly up to the bar myself and post this missing info? After all, being well capitalized is a huge advantage in any trader's success, in my opinion.

That being said, I trade 2 accounts and combined I started 2010 with $52,000 and ended the year with $78,500 for a net return in 2010 of $26,500 or +51%.

My goal for 2011 is 100%+ return! I know it can be done. I will be focusing mostly on the grains.

Now for an analysis of 2010 trades after crunching all the data.


GCL, RLM, and ZS had enough trades to warrant charting each:


Other charts combine all trades made and are self explanatory.


The reasons for the poor performance in the 2nd half of the year are many. I hit my P/L peak in mid-August at $34,800 and have been in a drawdown since then. Most notably was that my main CL and ZS systems both suffered drawdowns at the same time and I stopped trading them. Turns out that the ZS system would have recovered nicely and returned to normal if I had grinded through the drawdown. The other major factor is evident in the R:R monthly chart above. After March, it starts sloping down. Tweaking systems likely contributed too and I must resist my engineering tendencies to always change things.

Look forward to 2011! Bring it on!

7 comments:

  1. Too many charts! too soon after the holiday hangover....my head hurts!
    However, best wishes....you know what your strengths are...keep at her.
    I may join you in 2011 in keeping better records (then again, I may disappear all together!)
    Time will tell.

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  2. just saw your excel work on open range I guess you can keep vary the percentage number (doesn't even has to be a fib number) until you get 80% - 99% hit rate.

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  3. Thanks!
    Hope your hangover is gone Sandy.
    Cory, just saw that Austin posted my file. Yes, you could easily test out other targets that have higher odds. I've never found any magic in any given fib numbers vs. other "regular" numbers.

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  4. I will go for 100% as well and will post my account summary at least weekly. Good luck!

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  5. Thanks FXEdge - Good luck! I just added you to my blogroll.

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  6. MBA does my little "nibbles at the market" - to quote you - have anything to do with this, you suddenly became a profitable trader, congratulations.

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