Fri. 1/21

9:30am CST - No trades for me today or for the next few. Going off the grid for a short break. Don't miss me. Results for the week, net loss of -$382. MTD: -$1516

Thurs. 1/20

2:00pm CST - More wide moves in grains again today. After the opening 1 min. ZS bar fell more than 11 cents, long was the way to go. Too bad one of my system trades missed target on short side by 2 ticks and I ended up taking a loss. P/L swung between +/- $1000 and settled in the middle. Better than a hot stick in the eye...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$290(32), CL $396(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	33
Net $P/L:	105
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	590
Avg$Loss:	-832

Wed. 1/19

1:00pm CST - After 3 red days, I was due for this one. Early shorts in both ZS and CL. Closed up shop early.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1823(10), CL $281(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	2104
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	1052
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 1/18

1:50pm CST - So much for feeling out a new system with 1 and 2 lots today. It was chopped to pieces. Not much more to say - the numbers speak volumes.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$625(34), ZW -$731(6), RLM -$445(2), CL -$18(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	46
Net $P/L:	-1819
Wins:	5
Losses:	13
Win%:	28
Avg$Win:	467
Avg$Loss:	-320

Fri. 1/14

2:15pm CST - Another choppy day. Stopped out by 1 tick on a ZS trade, $800 loser instead of a $1900 winner. I hate the thought of any "edge" I may or may not have only being a tick here or there. But that is often the case. For the week net loss of -$1076.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1192(25), ZW $423(15), RLM -$86(2), CL $82(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	46
Net $P/L:	-773
Wins:	4
Losses:	5
Win%:	44
Avg$Win:	382
Avg$Loss:	-460

Thurs. 1/13

2:30pm CST - Not my day today. This time due to mistakes. Moved a stop at wrong time and got stopped out. Was suppose to wait until close of candle. Lost $800 instead of making $1800. Then I forget to cancel an order that I heard "ding" for the fill after lunch. Got out at par but still!

For you Forex traders out there, this article likely is nothing you didn't already know.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1756(35), ZC $474(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	40
Net $P/L:	-1281
Wins:	2
Losses:	4
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	380
Avg$Loss:	-511

Wed. 1/12 -Grain Limit Up

1:00pm CST - Crazy grain day today. 2 early winners had me up $2k, then lost all that in next 3 trades, then made it back on last trade. Corn and beans are flirting with closing limit up today (not shown below). But that's still 15 min. away and I'm posting now!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $669(40), ZC $1412(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	45
Net $P/L:	2080
Wins:	3
Losses:	3
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	1424
Avg$Loss:	-730

Tues. 1/11

2:00pm CST - Abysmal results today. I need to revamp my plan. You see I stop trading when I get up $1000-2000, but my fuzzy stop point isn't until around -$3000. On days like this when my "edge" is non-existent or negative, it makes no sense to keep trading as the red gets redder.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1831(40), CL -$1094(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	50
Net $P/L:	-2926
Wins:	1
Losses:	7
Win%:	13
Avg$Win:	474
Avg$Loss:	-486

Mon. 1/10

1:20pm CST - One and done today. The early volatility nearly chopped me out. This seems to be the norm now, less so last year. Either that or I got used to the calmer Nov./Dec. grain markets and forgot how they can jump up and down 4-8 ticks in milliseconds?

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1823(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	1823
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	1823
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 1/07

2:20pm CST - So much for ending the week on an up note. It was chop galore on 75% of my signals today. I had unrealized of +$1k early on but that didn't last long. Down for the week net -$841.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2347(60), ZW $448(10), RLM $486(5), CL -$967(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	90
Net $P/L:	-2380
Wins:	4
Losses:	12
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	524
Avg$Loss:	-373

Thurs. 1/06

1:30pm CST - Feels like a red day but the end result says different. Not sure if that feeling is a good thing or a bad thing. Certainly not feeling complacent after 4 days into the new year.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $845(30), ZW $359(20)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	50
Net $P/L:	1205
Wins:	4
Losses:	4
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	771
Avg$Loss:	-470

Wed. 1/05

2:00pm CST - A grinder of a day. I'm realizing that my plan this year of letting winners run longer is going to be a challenge. But that's what trading is...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $769(35), ZW $209(25)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	60
Net $P/L:	978
Wins:	6
Losses:	5
Win%:	55
Avg$Win:	418
Avg$Loss:	-306

Tues. 1/04

2:10pm CST - And there's the new year humbling I needed! Grrr......
And I find out today that NFA fees on futures seem to have gone from 2 cents per share to 4 cents per share. Happy New Year!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$3047(60), ZW $1120(30)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	90
Net $P/L:	-1927
Wins:	3
Losses:	13
Win%:	19
Avg$Win:	808
Avg$Loss:	-335

Mon. 1/03

11:20am CST - Admin note: I've added "Past Performance Results" over there in the right margin of this blog. That will be updated monthly. And I will cease posting my weekly P/L chart since I will be updating my equity curve monthly instead.

Tough Sunday evening as I foolishly thought that the grain opening would be stellar in the first open of the year. Down as much as $2.4k on 30 contracts with the last ZW winning long stopping me out to the tick before drifting to my target 6 cents higher over an hour later (pic below). But a 10-lot ZS short this morning more than offset the Sun. night mishaps to wrap up the 1st trading day of 2011 in my favorite color: GREEN!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1758(30), ZW -$464(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	40
Net $P/L:	1294
Wins:	2
Losses:	5
Win%:	29
Avg$Win:	1849
Avg$Loss:	-481

2011 Goal and 2010 Trade Analysis

Well it wasn't the year I was shooting for but it was positive in many respects so no complaints. Starting this year, I'm going to start posting my monthly statements. I've never posted the size of my trading accounts before but since my "Calling all Bloggers" post asked for more transparency/inspiration from others, why not belly up to the bar myself and post this missing info? After all, being well capitalized is a huge advantage in any trader's success, in my opinion.

That being said, I trade 2 accounts and combined I started 2010 with $52,000 and ended the year with $78,500 for a net return in 2010 of $26,500 or +51%.

My goal for 2011 is 100%+ return! I know it can be done. I will be focusing mostly on the grains.

Now for an analysis of 2010 trades after crunching all the data.

GCL, RLM, and ZS had enough trades to warrant charting each:

Other charts combine all trades made and are self explanatory.


The reasons for the poor performance in the 2nd half of the year are many. I hit my P/L peak in mid-August at $34,800 and have been in a drawdown since then. Most notably was that my main CL and ZS systems both suffered drawdowns at the same time and I stopped trading them. Turns out that the ZS system would have recovered nicely and returned to normal if I had grinded through the drawdown. The other major factor is evident in the R:R monthly chart above. After March, it starts sloping down. Tweaking systems likely contributed too and I must resist my engineering tendencies to always change things.

Look forward to 2011! Bring it on!

Quarter 4 2010 Trading Results

And a look at the entire year of 2010:

December Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS $6538, ZW -$958, ZC -$168, RLM $831, GCL -$2061, 6E -$127

RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
Contracts:	558
Net $P/L:	4054
Wins:	87
Losses:	78
Win%:	53
Avg$Win:	314
Avg$Loss:	-299

Last Trading Day of the Year

2:20pm CST - Nice to end the week, month, year on an up note. Look for a trading recap of 2010 stats over the weekend.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1229(9), ZW -$556(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	673
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	614
Avg$Loss:	-278

For the past 2 weeks, net was $2270 in beans, $864 in wheat, $1 in crude, -$5 in euro.

Wed. 12/29

11:40am CST - No patience again today to hold for bigger gains. But I am managing the goal of staying out of trouble this week. 1 more day...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $27(7), ZW $285(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	311
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	275
Avg$Loss:	-240

Tues. 12/28

1:25pm CST - Lulled into submission for a tick on a short ZS trade that would have netted 4+ cents. Looking forward to more volume next week!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$437(12), ZW $435(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	-2
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	240
Avg$Loss:	-481

Mon. 12/27

11:35am CST - Not much action today but could have held on for more upside in beans. Oh well. I'm not into trading much this week anyways. ...still in Christmas food coma!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $269(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	269
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	269
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 12/22

12:45pm CST - Scratch day. I think I'm done for the week unless I see something tempting tomorrow. I expect things to be uber dead. I really expected little today but ZW surprised me big time. ZS, unlike yesterday or ZW today, was muted.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$106(6), ZW $172(3), GCL $1(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	67
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	137
Avg$Loss:	-172

Tues. 12/21

10:30am CST - Planned shorter targets today on ZS trades and done trading early after hitting $1k. Of course the expected muted ranges with Christmas so near can not really be predicted by anyone on any particular symbol. ZS had a 16 cent range in the 1st hour today - very respectable!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $719(6), ZW $344(6), 6E -$5(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	1059
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	355
Avg$Loss:	-5

Mon. 12/20

1:15pm CST - I took "not getting into too much trouble" seriously today and stopped early. I did take off the ZS trade 2 cents earlier than plan which cost me $500. I'm human - what can you do...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $569(6), ZW $185(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	754
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	377
Avg$Loss:	0

Calling All Bloggers

I have the utmost respect for all my fellow trading bloggers who toil at the keyboard day in and day out, for lots of different reasons, to bring us something to read. Sure everyone is free to post whatever they want for it is their blog after all, but I would like to pose a challenge for 2011.

And that is... Post your Net P/L in dollars on a daily or weekly basis and provide at least a quarterly or yearly recap, preferably as an equity curve.

We all know that the lack of transparency in this industry is shameful. Nobody really knows how anyone else is performing or how many traders are successful. Brokers just won't share this information (for fear of scaring new traders away and losing commissions!). Personally, I read trading blogs for inspiration mostly. Sure some report pips or ticks gained on the day but what really matters is the bottom line. Props to those that already report $P/L: Jules, Sandy, De'Trader, Michael, Bare Bones, etc. (although some lack a periodic recap)

This challenge goes out to those that don't: Austin, Don Miller, etc. (to name just a couple that I know can take this constructive critique). As educators, I guess they have the most to lose (or gain) by showing their real trading performance. Don used to show his performance and Austin does sometimes show his daily ticks.

I do give kudos to Austin if he follows through on his recent announcement on attempting to take an account to a million in 2011 and doing so in public fashion. Hopefully it does not fall by the wayside like his $5000 account experiment in early 2010 did. (Austin, please correct me if I am mistaken about that. Perhaps you still trade that account up but only share details with your clients?)

If anyone knows of any good blogs out there that I don't have in my blogroll that meet this criteria, please let me know. Even the old P/L thread at elitetrader (that I used to post on in 2007) lacks any inspiration these days as it has shriveled up to scant few posts.

No need to proclaim your acceptance or refusal of this challenge but I hope to be pleasantly surprised when I start blog surfing in 2011! :)

Fri. 12/17

1:30pm CST - Another tough day fighting the pre-holiday dead volume tapes! Some things worked, others didn't. 4 ticks slippage on one ZS entry ($300)! I was my own worst enemy on some trades like this euro trade that lured me into submission after 45 minutes:

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1213(12), ZW -$143(6), GCL -$1422(14), 6E $266(2), RLM -$1043(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	49
Net $P/L:	-1130
Wins:	5
Losses:	10
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	338
Avg$Loss:	-282

For the week, net was $4760 in beans, -$1083 in wheat, -$195 in mini-Russell, -$3252 in crude, $259 in euro. Doing an early look back on the year, basically all my profits came from ZS, around $24k.

Thurs. 12/16

1:50pm CST - Bounced around between -$400 and +$700. I was going to stop at >$1000 but that never happened. At least I'm positive.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $507(18), ZW -$743(6), GCL $413(6), 6E -$103(6), RLM $36(12)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	48
Net $P/L:	110
Wins:	6
Losses:	8
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	397
Avg$Loss:	-284

Wed. 12/15

3:00pm CST - Tiring day with mistakes a plenty. Up $400+ early on then downhill from there. I know better than to trade CL around inventory report but it had been awhile so I paid the market to reteach me that lesson. 2-lot stop orders slipped 19 ticks! Other errors made were mostly taking trades off early. The comatose tapes lure you into thinking nothing is going to move anywhere and just when you exit, POP - tapes fly for a short spell.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1280(21), ZW -$481(6), GCL -$2213(30), 6E $97(6), RLM $327(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	78
Net $P/L:	-990
Wins:	10
Losses:	16
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	360
Avg$Loss:	-287

Tues. 12/14

1:50pm CST - Crude got me red early on, down $600, but the grains bailed me out. FOMC announcement was the biggest non-market mover ever! I'm trying to take it easy for rest of year (without reducing size) and not get into too much trouble. So far, so good.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $816(9), ZW $284(3), GCL -$242(14)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	26
Net $P/L:	859
Wins:	6
Losses:	4
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	269
Avg$Loss:	-189

Mon. 12/13

1:15pm CST - Winners all around today. And after I decided to quit, the next few signals would have added more to the take. Oh well. I am a bit pissed at ZS today however, I had 3 ticks of slippage on one fill - 1 is expected, 2 is rare, but 3!?#&*#^$? That was $225 on my 6-lot...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $944(6), RLM $486(5), GCL $211(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	1641
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	547
Avg$Loss:	0