April Trading Summary -12.3%

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$1320(38), ES -$570(44)

RESULTS FOR APRIL
Contracts:	82
Net $P/L:	-1890
Wins:	21
Losses:	60
Win%:	26
$Commissions:	295
Avg$Win:	259
Avg$Loss:	-106

Thurs./Fri. 4/26-27 -5.4%

2:20pm CDT - Well this week sucked. After 3 weeks trading CL system and the very first trade being the best winner in years, I'm averaging -$35/trade and a 10.5% win rate (backtest avg. was 19%).  I knew it would be hard to trade such a system, and I'm sure I'd feel differently if I currently sat above the zero line, but this drawdown is nearly as deep as expected in an entire year.  Need to do some thinking.  Kick it to curb?  Change from +6R system to something much less?  Return to incubating? Thoughts welcome.  For the week, including ES losses, net -$2306.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	-770
Wins:	0
Losses:	5
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-154

Wed. 4/25 -7.3%

1:50pm CDT - Sidelining ES again.  CL system had another sucky day making 2 in a row.  Still within tested drawdown range but sucks nonetheless.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ES -$204(5), CL -$918(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-1122
Wins:	2
Losses:	10
Win%:	17
Avg$Win:	78
Avg$Loss:	-128

Tues. 4/24 -6.6%

3:10pm CDT - Tough day to start trading ES again with tweaked discretionary method. CL system sucked equally.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$700(5), ES -$391(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	-1091
Wins:	0
Losses:	10
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-109

Mon. 4/23 +4.3%

2:10pm CDT - Good start to week. System left lots on table.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	676
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	676
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 4/20 -0.7%

1:20pm CDT - Happy 420 day! In the past 7 trading days my system is 1 for 14. Net for the week -$345.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	-114
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-114

In other news, good to see how CTA/hedge funds are doing occasionally...

Thurs. 4/19 -2.9%

4:10pm CDT - Looking for any evening/overnight selloff!  Target 67.34.  Will update table later or include result tomorrow...
EDIT: Stopped out at 6:02pm CDT

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	-472
Wins:	0
Losses:	3
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-157

Wed. 4/18 -0.7%

2:00pm CDT - The joys of system trading - sat on one trade all day, -1/2R, +3.5R, -1/2R, +4.5R, -1R stop at end of day. Target was +6R.  A+ for following rules at least, despite the sting.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	-114
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-114

Tues. 4/17 +4.5%

3:35pm CDT -

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	706
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	706
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 4/16 -2.2%

2:40pm CDT -

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	-352
Wins:	0
Losses:	3
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-117

Fri. 4/13 -3.6%

2:10pm CDT - Happy Friday the 13th! (as I type, listening to Ziggy Marley "Three Little Birds.") I have to remind myself that with a 19% win rate, 81% of trades will stop out with my system.  Plus there were 27 losers in a row in backtest.  But for the week, net +$737.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	-606
Wins:	0
Losses:	4
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-151

Thurs. 4/12 -0.6%

4:10pm CDT -

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	-94
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-94

Wed. 4/11 +1.3%

2:00pm CDT - No idea how the last trade will work out, stop 66.97, target 65.50. Will report tomorrow or update table below if it fills before I retire for the night.
EDIT: Stopped out 9:16pm CDT, table updated below.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	224
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	776
Avg$Loss:	-184

Mon./Tues. 4/10-4/11 +7.8%

1:55pm CDT - Started trading CL 6R system, no discretion. And as luck would have it, had a nice winner to start which exited as I slept.  I had a look back in the logs to see when I last had a winner that size or larger.  Had to go back to 12/18/2013 for a 5-lot NQ trade. For a single lot trade, as this was, had to go way back to 9/24/2008 when I shorted ES at 1192.50 and bought 5 days later at 1165.00.  Maybe there's something to swing trading? Some may find it crazy I can look up pretty much every trade I've ever made since I started in this biz. #OCD

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	1212
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	1316
Avg$Loss:	-104

Fri. 4/06 +1.3%

2:45pm CDT - For the week, that was way too much work for a net +$25.  Back to the drawing board on my ES method.  Meanwhile, my CL system, if I had traded it, had 9 trades for +$2600!  Incubation may be ending next week...

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	206
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	209
Avg$Loss:	-3

Thurs. 4/05 +0.1%

3:10pm CDT - Another digging out of hole day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	20
Wins:	3
Losses:	5
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	183
Avg$Loss:	-106

Wed. 4/04 +0.0%

3:15pm CDT - Huge day for the ES, not for me. Content to get back to even. Left lots on table with several trades.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	4
Wins:	4
Losses:	6
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	150
Avg$Loss:	-99

Tues. 4/03 +2.5%

2:55pm CDT -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	374
Wins:	4
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	94
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 4/02 -3.8%

3:20pm CDT - Volatility is great, until it isn't.  Too much to handle today.  Should have called it a day before I finally did.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	-580
Wins:	3
Losses:	6
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	26
Avg$Loss:	-110

To BE or not to BE?

Worked on more programming of my CL strat which is incubating for now as I plan to continue trading ES method for this week.  Comments here, prodded me to examine this closer and the data is below.  Thoughts encouraged!  My conclusion, BE stops or trailing stops add complexity but can sometimes help smooth out profit curve a bit but generally degrade overall performance. I was a bit surprised though the 3rd and 4th results below (of the 6) were so close in overall profit to the 1st original (optimized) system.  It does feel like I'm potentially over-optimizing more variables by trying to improve results by manipulating stops, and that's not a good thing...

In other news, was this really 6 years ago?  LOL