| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 1 |
| Net $P/L: | 6 |
| Wins: | 1 |
| Losses: | 0 |
| Win%: | 100 |
| Avg$Win: | 6 |
| Avg$Loss: | 0 |
20 hours ago
Monday, March 26, 2018
Mon. 3/26 +0.0%
2:45pm CDT - Not sure I can trade my CL system with +6R settings that I should trade to maximize profit. You'll notice from Ninja summary 2 posts ago there were 27 consecutive losers during test period. Could anyone trade through that? I guess a robot. Last week system, if traded, would have netted $2500/contract though. But that was an outlier week for sure. I did trade it today and should still be short (no exit at close). But after being up nearly 3R, I moved stopped to BE and got stopped. I've tested BE stops and they just don't help profits at all (the way I coded it anyways). Have another idea to test and will code soon. Also may be going live soon on ES idea I've been SIM'ing...
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Break even stops are best used when prices have moved enough to give you a high level of confidence the threat of whipsaw is past and/or it moves past a certain price point where you want to start locking in profit. If prices keep moving in your favor convert the BE to a trailing stop at the half way mark if conservative to ensure if it doesn't reach your target and reverses, you lose no more than half of gains.
ReplyDeleteThe definition is clearly what the trader has determined based on their TA and experience.
DeleteI don't see any flaws. If one has the skill and ability to determine a price entry and target price, one would think they would also have the capability to determine a stop-loss, and when to convert it to a BE or trailing stop.
DeleteNot just me, but general risk management in trading books as well. To let a position reach say, 75%+ of a trade target, only to have it reverse and wind up with a full stop loss simply makes little sense.
DeleteThe problem with your example is prices have hit their intended target. In my example, they haven't, and start reversing back, which is what the adjusted BE to a new stop is used just for that situation- the goal being to ensure at least a portion of the gains made are locked in when prices have moved significantly towards ones projected target.
DeleteIf BE stops are considered a poor expectancy approach after prices have moved that far, then it follows questioning why stops should be used at all, since either one reaches their projected price target or the trade is a bust, regardless of the MFE.
DeleteI agree the market isn't a random walk, and neither is driving, but most people still wear safety belts because the unexpected sometimes happens. As you say, yours works for you.
Wouldn't be much of a market if we all traded the same way I guess. Nearly all the systems I've tested over the years, BE stops generally hurt overall performance. Hope to get some more work on this complete over weekend for my CL system...
DeleteI'll have to post some P/L curves and stats for my system w/ and w/o moves to BE stops. Stay tuned...
ReplyDelete