Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Wed. 1/29

3:25pm CST - FOMC Day helped get me back to even but I continued trading and paid for it especially with some trades outside of my plan. Lesson learned.... Again.
RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:65
Net $P/L: -1737
Wins: 1
Losses: 11
Win%:8
Avg$Win: 1112
Avg$Loss: -259
Posted by at

11 comments:

  1. MichaelJanuary 29, 2014 at 4:24 PM

    Gotta love those refresher courses, had a few of those myself. :)

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  2. AnonymousJanuary 29, 2014 at 5:37 PM

    you have to be nuts to keep doing/thinking this is possible..I LOVE IT!

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  3. AnonymousJanuary 30, 2014 at 7:56 AM

    MBA I don`t know about you but I really got tired of you going nowhere. You keep on doing the same thing even if its obvious it does not work, not like this anyway. I don`t want to make you feel bad or discourage you, it`s not the purpose of this comment I just want to point out that maybe its time to try something else, like maybe searching a profitable trader to share with you some insights of what, why and how is he/she beating the market. There might be traders that do not have your capital but have the knowledge you know?...I`m just saying...I suppose that your`re not really short on cash because for 5 years you don`t seem to care you dont make money by trading so I assume that cash isn`t really a big issue...I`m quite sure money can buy anything even the knowledge on how to make money you just need to find someone that might be in need of them. And if someone by chance would ask now why would a profitable trader share his knowledge and if he is profitable why don`t he already have money well its simple...it takes time to grow a 1000$ account and some might want to skip the going from 1000 to 10000$ year(s) by selling their knowledge. Of course I do not think it would be cheap and you could end up tricked if you`re dumb which I don`t think you are, I think you`re smart enough to know what to ask as a proof before paying anything.
    ...I was just saying..mind me or mind me not its not my business

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  4. AnonymousJanuary 30, 2014 at 3:22 PM

    I also would like to chime in on what anon has said above, again from the same perspective, that it pains me to see someone committing so hard to what is an obvious lost cause. Your numbers just don't lie, you can't seriously think there is a worthwhile edge in having a 10% win rate at times, trudging along with a few small green days and then BANG, -2k. And then you prolong the same cycle, over again... "it's my psychology.. I didn't follow my system". and also what's worrying, is some of these (well intended) encouragements. "you're so close, you just need some tweaks etc".

    I am only looking from the outside but you should have a clear demonstrable edge with your system otherwise, no psychology in the world can help you. Executing a losing system to perfection is not going to get you anywhere.

    What you need to do, is sit down and take a full inventory of your beliefs and assets/skillsets. Things like:

    Do I believe it is possible to consistently make money from the market?
    Do I actually have any edge at all?
    Even if I do (in theory), is it even significant? Is it compatible with my personality?
    Do I need help in my current state?
    Can somebody help me?

    After 3 years of getting absolutely nowhere, I asked myself all of these questions and it became clear that I needed help. Maybe you should have a chat with the OpenTrader guys, this isn't a plug - I am now 6 months profitable myself after over-hauling my beliefs about the market and how to trade it with help from O.T. If not them, then as mentioned above, seek someone who can prove a good edge over time. Stay open minded, with the rise of social media, you'll eventually find your way to good help. It is almost maddening, seeing you chase your tail under the false pretence of a winning system, there is a sense of delusion here that by keep doing what you're doing - with endless tweaks here and there, this massively losing system will suddenly turn to gold. I know, I've been there. It is hard because of the sunk cost investment you've made to your system (time and money), but it will only get deeper and deeper the longer you go on like this. You need to stop, and ask for help. It IS possible to make money from the market, but it will take more than what you are currently doing.

    L




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  5. technicalsuccessJanuary 31, 2014 at 12:29 AM

    mba, I disagree with the other posts that say you are "going no where", are an "obvious lost cause" and that you are "nuts". We can't only look at your results and draw those conclusions. I'm sure you have learned a lot but that the results don't show consistent profitability yet; we can only conclude you have a few more things to investigate and that you haven't mastered it yet (which you never said you have).

    Losing $ already provides enough discouragement and we need to point things out that you should consider rather than use discouraging words as above.

    For instance, we should encourage you to try limiting the magnitude of your L days (i.e. 2k L is too large relative to your G days), suggest to you that the r:r ratio that you are now looking at is good in the sense it provides a metric to balance G/L (i.e. the G has to be an order of magnitude larger than L), and point out to you that 11 loss trades in a row in one day is too much and you could have stopped after the 10th, 9th, 8th, etc loss and lost less for that day (I'm sure you know those things though). That's all we can point out from the results rather than make conclusions its a lost cause or whatever.

    Anyways, it's a process and we should try to point out things or encourage as much as possible bec there is already an automatic discouragement mechanism in trading...I'm sure you won't trade 11 times in a row and lose 2k for too many days before you stop doing that.

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  6. AnonymousJanuary 31, 2014 at 2:45 AM

    Tech, I agree on the encouragement side of things and pointing things out... if the person in question was on the right path and is just a little lost in the small scheme of things. But it is all hollow not to mention dangerous if they are on the wrong path.

    I guess that is an unknown (whether they are on the right path/have an economical edge)... for now. You say we can't look at results and draw conclusions, but the only criterion of truth is that what you do is working for you (Von Mises), 4 years of results is long term enough to tell you some truths about where you are. MBA, there is almost no middle ground here in terms of the feedback you're getting. I am on one end of the extreme, but it's not to discourage you and tell you to quit... but rather, to change course. As mentioned, just sit down and take a full inventory of your beliefs and assets, ask yourself some hard Qs and see if you need a major change.

    L

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  7. AnonymousJanuary 31, 2014 at 5:02 AM

    I completely agree with the other anon. Quite frankly MBA I think that just about everyone that is in the same position as you will talk like mr. technicalsuccess does, most likely they also need the encouragements for themselves but the point is that its the wrong path, you can not keep on doing the same thing and expect different result, I did not suggest you to buy a certain course precisely not to think I`m doing this with some hidden purpose so you must see that I am trying actually to help. Here is why I`ve commented above - I`m the second anon), at the time when I started to beat the market consistently and make money I did not had your capital, not by far so you have no clue how many times I was thinking to get a partner with real cash to skip the long period of making 100% returns/year but meaningless $ returns, I am absolutely 100% certain that there are still people like I was. Anyway if you think this is discouragement then I am sorry its really not my intention but I think you need to open your eyes and stop going on the same path as everyone, you cant really think that this herd mentality of empty encouragements passed from one losing trader to another losing trader will help.
    I stand now as a very profitable trader and I say to you that you are on the wrong path, I did not try to lure you in to something, I will not post a single comment from now on and I will never ever say anything to you anymore but for God sake man either reinvent the wheel yourself or find someone that did and does not have the cash to put it together because it does not work like this.
    Oh and also if you take my comment as bad intention and discouragement please write somewhere next to the blog title "I like comments and people that say only what I need and want to hear, please don`t throw the harsh truth in my face"

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    Replies
    1. AnonymousJanuary 31, 2014 at 6:54 AM

      To both of you Anons-- you are barking against the wrong tree. Any level headed person would have understood by now that 1) 4 consecutive years of going nowhere in trading means MBA has no edge. 2) Every week he mentions discipline issues => His emotional state is just not suited to be a trader 3) Had MBA been on a trading desk in a bank, he would have been told long back to pack his bags and probably move to sales or some other role. 4) Over the years he has displayed complete inability to listen to genuine criticism and he gets very defensive as soon as people start questioning his methodology, his edge, his discipline and probability of his being successful in future => Such personalities don't make money in markets. MBA is a classic case of the kind of unsuccessful traders that Ed Seykota described as "people get what they want from the markets". There is nothing you or I or anyone else can do to bring him on the right path, because he is just too egoistic and completely closed minded as far as getting feedback is concerned.

      Only good thing about MBA is that he doesn't lose money - he has been steady over the last 4 years. This can lead us to believe that he is close to getting success but as you rightly pointed out, he needs help in terms of inputs from successful traders and retooling. Alas, I don't think he will listen to your well-intentioned advice.

      After this scathing criticism, I will bow out of the discussion - as I maintain that all of us are barking against the wrong tree. I am so confident of MBA's inability to take criticism in his stride and change his trading that I am actually willing to bet 2000 USD that MBA will make less than 50k USD from his trading from now to end of 2016. So, even if he manages to turn around his trading, I am confident that he will make less than 50k over the next 3 years - thats like 17k per year. Compare this with at least 100k a year that he would have been making had he continued with his corporate career. Alas, one more fella who got beaten by markets but did not become humble yet :D

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    2. AnonymousJanuary 31, 2014 at 11:20 AM

      I'm not here to generate arguments/debates... for the main part, you are correct in most of what you're saying - and I am probably barking up the wrong tree, I haven't really followed this site that far back tbh - just long enough to see a persistent pattern. There is one factor that trumps most of what you are saying though, and that is that I used to be pretty much like MBA. convinced, it was just my psychology and all I needed was a little bit of this and that. I managed to turn it around, so it is not all impossible and that's why I figured it is worth a shot with my first comments. It can be done, but not without first a complete overhaul of his current beliefs set.

      L

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  8. MichaelJanuary 31, 2014 at 9:55 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. JMF3January 31, 2014 at 1:46 PM

    Grow a sack, post with a name -

    ReplyDelete

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