Monday, April 4, 2011

Mon. 4/04 - DRP

11:55am CDT - Drawdown Recovery Plan has begun! After today, I’m down 19% on the year and 29% from the year’s equity peak on March 4th. Obviously not where I wanted to be with 1/4 of the year gone but not that atypical of drawdowns. There’s 2 things about drawdowns that are inevitable, they either continue or you work your way up to new highs. Whichever outcome is in store for me (I choose the latter), I’m going to slow things down a bit for now. It’s all about longevity in this business and as I’ve said before, I’m in no hurry to succeed. Capital preservation is a must however.

For this week I will limit my trades to a max of 5 (1 lots) for CL and 3 (5 lots) for ZS. I will continue trading my ZS system which has been performing terribly and accounts for most of my drawdown. There is no particular reason why this has happened and it should snap back to normal at some point. Last year when I quit trading it, it was right at the bottom of a drawdown and came back nicely. By the time I resumed trading it, I missed out on much of the upswing. So I’m giving it another week at least this time.

After this week I will readjust the plan. If it’s a negative week, I will likely cease trading for a week or two and spend the time refining various methods and researching new ones.

Thanks to most all for the recent comments/emails. I haven’t responded to all but I do read them. And no worries regarding the “anon” folks that like spewing less than supportive tidbits. I have the ability to delete any comments if they get too far out there.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1202(15), CL -$362(5)
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:20
Net $P/L:-1565
Wins:1
Losses:7
Win%:13
Avg$Win:96
Avg$Loss:-237

5 comments:

  1. You have a good attitude...I salute you :)

    You had enough capital to adjust the size. I mean if you kept you journal in detail, I watched that you had too many early stopped out and after you quit, price moved your way. Or you've got stopped out 1 or 2 ticks before price reverse and go to your way.

    If you kept detailed journal, once again you can see the pattern. Analyze the pattern, maybe you can adjust your trade. Example: loosening your SL but cutting your contracts, or reduce size overall, so you can increase number of trade. If it happened over and ov er again, then maybe your system were not broken. Maybe it just need adjustment with the increasing volatility.

    Like I did in CL, I navigate the market is it trending or ranging. Like today's ranging, the strategy I used fits nicely. And I can change on the way to trending if it changed. I just need to control the bias and emotion which is harder than finding good system.

    You had the privilege to adjust your size, that's your upper hand than other retail like me. You can trade 2 contracts with 10 consequtive losses and only loss 5% of your account.

    If you had good early trade, just watch the market also a good idea. Never know what's new things learnt from moving price.

    I am sorry I talked like a guru ( I am worse trader than you ) But you helped me at the difficult day, now I want to help you at best I can. So we can support each other. We need that, friend, really really need that :)

    Good luck, I really wish and mean it :)

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  2. You can trade 2 contracts with 10 consequtive losses and only loss 5% of your account.

    Sorry, I mean only 2-3%

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  3. Good to hear that you have time on your side. A lot of folks don't and that becomes a key obstacle in this business. With time and persistent effort we can do some pretty good things. It's really inevitable. Come to think of it, isn't that how the Grand Canyon was made? You are obviously younger than me. I wish I had gotten started about 10 years earlier. Every day we get a tad smarter though. Those tads add up to positive results. I don't think the market has any secrets at all. We just need to stick around long enough to understand what it's showing us in broad daylight.

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  4. MBA, sorry to hear about the down year. You seem to believe in your edge, good traders can trust their edge even after a series of consecutive losses. After making the necessary tweaks to your system and psyci if needed, I am sure you will bounce back.

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  5. Thanks much for comments! A good attitude is everything.

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