Quarter 3 2010 Trading Results

And the bigger picture, year-to-date:

September Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS -$2571, GCL -$1673, 6E $120, RLM -$950

RESULTS FOR SEPTEMBER
Contracts:	389
Net $P/L:	-5075
Wins:	66
Losses:	99
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	251
Avg$Loss:	-219

Thurs. 9/30

3:15pm CDT - A fitting losing end to the month and quarter. Crude kicked my butt again and you can see why:

However soybeans bailed me out so it wasn't too bad of day. My discretionary trading this month (since stopping my systems) has been mediocre at best. As I have known from past discretionary runs, I am my own worst enemy most of the time. I need structure and hard and fast rules to dictate what I do on each and every trade. Otherwise, I short change my performance.

Since I quit trading my CL system on 8/18, I have lost $1500 in CL. The system's results in the same time period would have been $5000 (hypothetically).

Since I quit trading my ZS system on 9/16, I have made $3000 in ZS. The system's results in the same time period would have been $2000 (hypothetically).

Going forward, I will once again go back to trading only systems that I have developed and backtested. For the short term, I am going to focus on ZS.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $920(18), GCL -$984(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	28
Net $P/L:	-64
Wins:	2
Losses:	10
Win%:	17
Avg$Win:	727
Avg$Loss:	-152

Wed. 9/29

2:25pm CDT - Why I picked today to trade TF (RLM on the OEC platform), I have no idea!? With month and quarter end tomorrow, time for some revisions to my trade plan and refocus. More on that tomorrow...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $813(12), GCL -$444(10), RLM -$950(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	30
Net $P/L:	-581
Wins:	4
Losses:	12
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	271
Avg$Loss:	-139

Tues. 9/28

2:05pm CDT - Another okay day today. Lots of money flowed by my bucket though after I pulled it out of the river to quickly on most trades. Tomorrow I'll wear my hip waders so I can stay in longer!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $285(3), GCL $221(2), 6E $22(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	527
Wins:	5
Losses:	3
Win%:	63
Avg$Win:	193
Avg$Loss:	-146

Mon. 9/27

1:00pm CDT - Good to be green as Kermit says! Of my 7 net break-even CL trades, this one deserved special recognition with a picture: DOH!!!!!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $322(3), GCL -$1(7), 6E $158(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	479
Wins:	6
Losses:	3
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	132
Avg$Loss:	-104

Fri. 9/24

1:45pm CDT - Not much working today but just a wee bit more good luck than bad luck to end the week green. And no, I'm not saying that my trades are all luck.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $318(11), GCL $342(4), 6E -$444(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	217
Wins:	5
Losses:	7
Win%:	42
Avg$Win:	195
Avg$Loss:	-108

For the week, net was $700 in beans, $440 in crude oil, and -$60 in the euro.

Thurs. 9/23

2:10pm CDT - Not as bad at scalping today. Still can't figure out CL lately. I think I'm fighting it too much and not just going along for the ride.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $424(5), GCL -$9(11), 6E $223(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	639
Wins:	8
Losses:	6
Win%:	57
Avg$Win:	147
Avg$Loss:	-89

Wed. 9/22

2:00pm CDT - This little break from mechanically trading any of my systems has reminded me of one thing, I am not a very good scalper. It's good to be reminded every now and then.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$196(9), GCL -$108(20), 6E $161(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	32
Net $P/L:	-144
Wins:	9
Losses:	11
Win%:	45
Avg$Win:	148
Avg$Loss:	-134

Tues. 9/21 FOMC Day

2:30pm CDT - Underwater early on a few CL scalps but ZS and FOMC action pulled me to plus side. Biggest mistake was selling the CL break below 75.40 after FOMC and only getting 5 cents when I could have easily gotten 40 more as the knife fell.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $152(7), GCL -$87(13)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	64
Wins:	7
Losses:	8
Win%:	47
Avg$Win:	117
Avg$Loss:	-94

Charlie Munger

2:30pm CDT -This is an excellent listen (all 2 hrs. of it)! Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's 86 yr. old partner and one of the most respected capitalists in the world, talked to law students on 9/14/2010 on the state of the economy and other things. Around the 1:13 mark he's not too keen on hedge fund traders and thinks they should sell apples or something productive...

Traded lightly today and caught one nice winner in CL.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1(5), GCL $306(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	305
Wins:	3
Losses:	3
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	203
Avg$Loss:	-101

Fri. 9/17

1:45pm CDT - Churned some discretionary trades today to feel out some ideas. Glad the week is over and the weekend is here.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $29(4), GCL $41(9)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	70
Wins:	5
Losses:	6
Win%:	45
Avg$Win:	94
Avg$Loss:	-67

For the week, net was -$3950 in beans and $230 in crude oil.

Thurs. 9/16

12:20pm CDT - As I did with my main CL system a month ago, I'm going to take a break from trading my ZS system. This may last a few days, weeks, or forever but more than likely I will backtest some tweaks and resume at some point.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1182(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-1182
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-591

Wed. 9/15

1:40pm CDT - Stopped on a ZS trade by 1 tick before target hit. My trades over past 20 sessions have a Win% of just 29%. This will not work for much longer. Either the market must change or I must!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1282(16), GCL $11(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	-1271
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	166
Avg$Loss:	-479

Tues. 9/14

2:00pm CDT - Ho hum kind of day. On another note, I made over $18000 in Sim money! OEC is now offering clients with a live account, a free demo account. So I played around a bit today with CL churning 190 total sim contracts. The fills were great and no slippage! I can see why people get stuck on sim....

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$132(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-132
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	509
Avg$Loss:	-641

Mon. 9/13

2:00pm CDT - ZS short stopped me out to the tick then went, very slowly, to target. Mondays...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1382(16), GCL $176(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	-1207
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	176
Avg$Loss:	-691

Fri. 9/10

1:45pm CDT - Is summer over yet? I'm ready for Fall markets! CL had a nice $1 up move this morning that I got 13 cents out of. And beans paid on the long side but chopped me out on a short.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $780(16), GCL $121(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	901
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	805
Avg$Loss:	-354

For the week, net was -$100 in beans and -$480 in crude oil.

Thurs. 9/09

3:00pm CDT - More of same. Once again ZS was within a few ticks of a nice day.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1157(16), GCL -$9(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	-1166
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	266
Avg$Loss:	-477

Wed. 9/08

2:00pm CDT - Came within 1 tick of profits in ZS today. And CL was just all over the place today. Drawdown continues - 1 step forward, 1.2 steps back has been the norm the past few weeks. Will shake out of this soon...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1282(16), GCL -$593(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	-1875
Wins:	1
Losses:	4
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	46
Avg$Loss:	-480

Tues. 9/07

1:40pm CDT - Nice relaxing 3-day weekend that did not involve any charts! Beans long paid the rent today.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1559(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	1559
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	1559
Avg$Loss:	0

Wrong side of bed

1:45pm CDT - I must have gotten up on wrong side of bed today. There's no other "good" explanation for my mistake-filled, overtraded day. To start, I got to my desk from kitchen 40 sec. after the release of non-farm payrolls report. Then take a look at my CL trades and you'll see that my brain was not working:

Then to add to the losses, I fat fingered a signal in my ZS system which should have netted $1300 today. Basically I took a long trade off that I shouldn't have and decided not to correct the error by putting the long back on. It went to target without me. Then made a few more ZS trades including the only winner of the day. So ends the week. Happy Labor Day on Monday!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$793(28), GCL -$1185(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	36
Net $P/L:	-1979
Wins:	1
Losses:	10
Win%:	9
Avg$Win:	480
Avg$Loss:	-246

For the week, net was -$2120 in beans and -$580 in crude oil.

Thurs. 9/02

1:35pm CDT - Pre-Labor Day dead markets today, except for CL which moved nicely up, up, up!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1532(16), GCL $206(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	-1327
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	206
Avg$Loss:	-766

Wed. 9/01

12:00pm CDT - Beans paid today but slippage there is getting to be the norm. You may have noticed I'm trading CL again - still backtesting but preliminary results look good so I'm feeling things out with 1 lots...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $768(16), GCL $325(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	1093
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	942
Avg$Loss:	-791