| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| CL Contracts: | 14 |
| Net $P/L: | 618 |
| Wins: | 9 |
| Losses: | 5 |
| Win%: | 64 |
| Avg$Win: | 98 |
| Avg$Loss: | -53 |
5 hours ago
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Wed. 5/23
1:00pm CDT - 2 nice days in a row. I passed on what ended up a quick 10 tick winner just as inventory report was coming out. I'm still torn about when/if I should pass on signals or quit early for the day. But in general, I take all signals on my system.
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My unsolicited 2 cents:
ReplyDelete1) Trade exactly as your backtest says to. Don't skip signals, unless that is part of your plan. Be "all in" to your strategy.
2) If signals are 100% mechanical, there is no reason to quit early, unless you have trade dependency/correlation. If not, the only quitting I'd recommend is to stop during losing days. Don't stop on winning days - in fact, a case could be made to increase your size on winning days.
Keep up the good work - I hope it continues well for you!!
Now, make it three nice day in row :)
ReplyDeleteThanks Kevin, agree with (1) but the engineer/tinker in me likes to overthink things. Plus I did not backtest what happens to results if I avoid trading during inventory report release which is often extremely volatile. Agree with first part of (2) but I have found no advantage to changing size based on how I'm doing, mostly I think, because the markets can and do "change" intraday as often as they change overnight.
ReplyDeleteTST - that is up to the market! But I hope so...
Hi MBA - My background is in engineering too, so I understand the "overthinking" part. Not trading right around the report is very understandable. You should be able to manually go through your backtest and take those trades out. That would give you hard data to base your decision on. It will be a solid, informed decision, too.
ReplyDeleteWithout doing that, you are on a slippery slope. Today it may be "don't trade during inventory report." Next month you might add "don't trade during NFP report" and so on. Eventually, you can't lean on your backtest in times of trouble, because you are trading differently than the backtest.
Good Luck!
I meant "tinkerer" - what the hell is a "tinker"?! LOL
ReplyDeleteKevin, agree completely. I have had the same thoughts. However, my current backtest data does not contain enough data for me to test such a filter. (ie. time of entry and time of exit)