| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| ES Contracts: | 92 |
| Net $P/L: | -1841 |
| Wins: | 8 |
| Losses: | 2 |
| Win%: | 80 |
| Avg$Win: | 391 |
| Avg$Loss: | -2484 |
20 hours ago
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Wed. 10/26
2:45pm CDT - Up $500 then I had 2 max-size stops in a row losing $5k. That has never happened in all my backtesting of this strategy. I could blame the EU but what's the point? At least the next 5 trades got half of the loss back.
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The market gets irrational when its driven by unexpected news. I can't plan for that. I CAN plan on proper entries and reasonable stop management with a history of known results. Without that I would not have the confidence to pull the trigger. Yes, I WOULD blame the news. As soon as I get the feeling my trade results are just a spin of the roulette wheel my confidence would be toast. Can't trade without confidence. This is not to say I have to know what will happen. I don't. But I won't let my psyche take a hit because of unexpected news. Ain't my fault!
ReplyDeleteTCat here. I agree with the YM-Trader.
ReplyDeleteI don't trade ES directly, but everything I trade is connected to ES so I know what these annoying losers feel like. News is something you need to be aware of and you have to "break your rules" if you suspect news is behind the action.
Unfortunately, the ES is fast and can pop against you very quickly on news. I think it may benefit you to get a live-audio news feed subscription to listen to while you trade the ES, preferably a feed targeted at ES traders. This way if you hear some noise or urgency from the news announcer, you can maybe judge sooner whether you should let it go to full stop.
On your first full-stop loser, I think that one was the harder of the two to avoid (at least from your time frame and resolution of data) and probably could only have been discerned from interpreting micro-structure activity (hard at your timeframe, manually.) The second one, though, I feel like is something you could have picked up on from a news feed, since the volume bars were picking up.
Thanks for comments.
ReplyDeleteMy point was that unexpected things happen every day, sometimes they negatively impact trades, sometimes positively impact. I am normally flat during news releases but with all this EU stuff going on I made the choice to trade rather than sit out the day or week or rest of month. I accept the consequences, good or bad.
I do have Bloomberg on all day long (at a barely audible volume) so am aware of things just after news hits the wires. TCat, that 2nd stop out happened on that first bar that had greater volume. At least I didn't fade it after that like I did last week! DOH!
I have subscribed to a "Squawk Box" service in the past. You can hear a guy calling out the action in the S&P Pit. I know a "news service" would be different but I just don't think I would benefit from it.
Gearhead: We used to have a feed at the office that was pretty good. Guy had a British accent and he'd announce whatever affected the ES. I can't remember the name of the service exactly. If you can find that one, do the free trial.
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