MBAGearhead Trading Journey

Friday, April 30, 2021

Improved April

New month, new system, fully systematic, with lots of manual backtesting prior but never enough. I think I had 355 trades backtested with average gross gain of 15 ticks/trade (all either 1 or 2 lots) before I went live this month. You can't get into too much trouble with MNQ so I used that even though it sucks for commission dollar relative to NQ. Today's trades below with entire month P/L curve. Performance was about half of the backtested results with ~8 ticks/trade (1 or 2 lots) and 145 trades total. Only ~2 ticks net per contract traded. Nothing to write home about but it is something that could do well if this edge continues. Missed a number of trades too (bathroom, lunch, etc.) and generally they would have been net winners so that's a good sign. I will consider moving up to NQ in May or should may be stay with MNQ longer? I think I could program the backtesting to get more data but it would be very complicated to do so. We'll see...

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Quarter 1 Trading Summary -12.0%

March Trading Summary -8.9%

RESULTS FOR MARCH
MNQ Contracts:	108
Net $P/L:	-870
Wins:	43
Losses:	12
Win%:	78
$Commissions:	95
Avg$Win:	15
Avg$Loss:	-127

March Blues

Only traded 4 days in early March and honestly didn't feel like posting results. My luck continued and experienced 2 max loss losers in a row and I called it quits to reassess yet again. This was a new system and the upside should have been better than the downside but the 2 huge losers in a row, despite not seeing that occur in backtests, was a blow to my will.

I am still watching markets and doing system development but my motivation has waned these past months and years. We all know this is a tough gig and not seeing any kind of positive results after so long has dampened my optimism! Will keep this blog updated as usual but less frequently perhaps, weekly or monthly most likely. Cheers!

Sunday, February 28, 2021

February Trading Summary -4.3%

RESULTS FOR FEBRUARY
MNQ Contracts:	157
Net $P/L:	-439
Wins:	70
Losses:	73
Win%:	49
$Commissions:	117
Avg$Win:	22
Avg$Loss:	-27

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Thurs. 2/25 +0.1%

1:50pm CST - 100% discretionary today...

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	+14
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	15
Avg$Loss:	-15

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Wed. 2/24 -2.6%

2:45pm CST - :(

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	-262
Wins:	1
Losses:	5
Win%:	17
Avg$Win:	9
Avg$Loss:	-54

Friday, February 19, 2021

Fri. 2/19 +0.0%

11:05am CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	+3
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	6
Avg$Loss:	-15

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Thurs. 2/18 -1.1%

3:05pm CST - At least the new Mars rover had a good day! 👽

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	-111
Wins:	3
Losses:	5
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	9
Avg$Loss:	-27

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Wed. 2/17 +0.7%

2:30pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	+67
Wins:	8
Losses:	2
Win%:	80
Avg$Win:	17
Avg$Loss:	-35

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Tues. 2/16 +0.4%

2:20pm CST - No progress on programming system (my skills need work!), but I have identified one setup that I think has the best potential and am test trading that this week with discretionary exits. Wish I had held that 2nd one today!

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	+40
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	20
Avg$Loss:	0

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Wed. 2/10 -1.8%

3:30pm CST - On paper, this should have been a tiny loss day but I managed to F it up going rogue on 3 trades near end of day. Just really novice behavior that there is no excuse for. Taking a break, will work on some programming of this system.

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	30
Net $P/L:	-189
Wins:	11
Losses:	15
Win%:	42
Avg$Win:	29
Avg$Loss:	-34

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Tues. 2/09 -0.9%

3:10pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-91
Wins:	6
Losses:	10
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	14
Avg$Loss:	-18

Monday, February 8, 2021

Mon. 2/08 +0.0%

3:25pm CST - A wheel spinning day...

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	+5
Wins:	9
Losses:	9
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	16
Avg$Loss:	-15

Friday, February 5, 2021

Fri. 2/05 +1.4%

3:40pm CST - No trades yesterday, did more manual backtesting. For past 10 trading days, if every trade taken and executed error-free with no slippage, there were 225 trades, 54.2% winners, R:R 1:1, gross ticks profit 2428, and biggest drawdown 450 ticks. After commission this is ~8 or 9 ticks per trade average. Seems too good to be true and normally when I backtest ideas for much great time periods, the numbers don't hold up and you are lucky to get an average profit of 2-3 ticks/trade. We will see.

Hypothetically, each day gross was: +103, +9, +102, +594, +1145, -120, -16, +267, +181, +163

Of course my real trades this period (101 total) were less than half the available ones and with mistakes, slippage, commissions, etc., I netted 3.7 ticks/trade. Still not bad if repeatable...

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	+140
Wins:	9
Losses:	3
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	21
Avg$Loss:	-15

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Wed. 2/03 +1.1%

3:00pm CST - Quit early. Better today but not sure I have any edge. Going through past 3 days system, if executed perfectly, had Mon. 23 trades -120 ticks, Tues. 17 trades, -16 ticks, Today 25 trades +267 ticks. I really should try to automate the backtesting.

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	+112
Wins:	4
Losses:	1
Win%:	80
Avg$Win:	35
Avg$Loss:	-27

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Tues. 2/02 -1.8%

3:10pm CST - Cluster F of a Groundhog Day... some reversals at end didn't have time to markup.

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	-187
Wins:	7
Losses:	13
Win%:	35
Avg$Win:	23
Avg$Loss:	-27

Monday, February 1, 2021

Mon. 2/01 +0.3%

2:40pm CST - Maybe I need to sit out the early spastic action?

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	+27
Wins:	4
Losses:	7
Win%:	36
Avg$Win:	59
Avg$Loss:	-30

Friday, January 29, 2021

January Trading Summary +0.9%

RESULTS FOR JANUARY
MNQ Contracts:	56
Net $P/L:	+94
Wins:	28
Losses:	25
Win%:	53
$Commissions:	41
Avg$Win:	28
Avg$Loss:	-28

Fri. 1/29 +0.0%

3:05pm CST - Not a bad day considering the system got me back to green. And potential was there if I hadn't missed a couple signals.

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	+4
Wins:	10
Losses:	8
Win%:	56
Avg$Win:	35
Avg$Loss:	-43

Thursday, January 28, 2021

Thurs. 1/28 +0.9%

12:05pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	+89
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	45
Avg$Loss:	-0

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Wed. 1/27 +0.8%

2:40pm CST - OK, right back at it. Today was no discretion on exits. One mistake trade I went long instead of short and revenge traded it right back so there's that flaw...

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	+78
Wins:	11
Losses:	7
Win%:	61
Avg$Win:	26
Avg$Loss:	-30

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Tues. 1/26 -0.7%

3:30pm CST - First trades of 2021... Strategy testing day on MicroNQ. I'm really wanting to trade the regular eminis and only have to get half tick or so to cover commission cost rather than the 1.5 tick I need on the Micros. But patience I tell myself. Today is a new entry idea I've been testing but did complete discretion on exits just to remind myself that I'm a failure at that. I need firm rules on entries, exits, etc. Back soon, I think!

RESULTS FOR DAY
MNQ Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	-77
Wins:	5
Losses:	10
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	12
Avg$Loss:	-14

Thursday, December 31, 2020

2020 Trade Analysis

It was another tough year, net loss -$3131 or about -24%. Had some spots of success but gave it all back in this net zero game. Commissions alone were about 2/3 of my net loss. We'll see what 2021 has in store soon enough. Still working on a plan to start year.