Friday, July 28, 2017

Fri. 7/28 -0.8%

2:45pm CDT - Nothing like waiting 3 hours for price to move somewhere, only to be taken out. ES is dead.  After a great start, I only netted +$37 on it this week. It is good for practicing patience but I really prefer my trades to move sooner than later.  I'm going to do more homework on my new method. 6E looked okay after a very preliminary look. We'll see...
ES Contracts:2
Net $P/L: -130
Wins: 0
Losses: 2
Avg$Win: 0
Avg$Loss: -65


  1. Hi MBA, as you have seen yourself, I suspect you may have to wait until the bond market forces the long rates up, before you see two sided liquidity return to the ES.

    I do not pretend to know how long that will be. But it WILL return, that much I can guarantee as the Fed unwinding will occur one way or the other, in some shape or form, whether they do it themselves or the bond market forces them to do it

    Until then, as a speculator you should really look at other instruments on much larger time-frames

    look at what Kevin Davey does, multiple markets on larger time-frames, that is probably the easiest way to speculate in a robust manner.

    The other thing that does (and has for me, as you have seen on my journal) that it forces you to build more robust approaches than curve fitting them to a specific market, which is a positive multiplier in many ways.

  2. practicing patience is good, net positive is even better. If the same result is repeatable for many months then scale up is the next logical step.

  3. Sandy, larger TFs is certainly one way to go. Kevin does a great job automating strategies and getting others to do same to share (his "Strategy Factory"). I submitted one once but it failed the 6 mo. incubation. Developing fully mechanical robust winning strategies is easier said than done.

    Cory, agree, but repeatable for months is the problem!

    1. keep plugging away until you hit something I guess

    2. Nice graph Cory! Only 3 losing days this year? Very inspiring (even if it's SIM or micro-Forex lots or 50 lots ES per trade)! LOL :)

    3. -yes it's SIM, my thought is, if you can't even make it on sim then you have no business doing it live.
      -no Forex, I stick to ES only, no longer watching any other market, my news source is CNN headlines.
      - 50 lots is nice but unrealistic, I try to keep it as real as possible thus 1 trade at a time if possible.
      my stat

    4. Thanks for sharing. Never been a fan of SIM but if you can make it realistic for you great! I find you have to deduct a tick each trade to make fills more real (unless you always use market orders, not limit). Hopefully 50 lots will be realistic for us both someday! :)

    5. I didn't check off Enforce immediate fills box, so it always has to go *beyond* my entry/exit price in order to get fill. That is how I built my patience.