Thurs. 6/09

1:15pm CDT - So close to another one winner day. But the "winner" ended up a breakeven trade as I was only filled on 2 contracts at my target (price didn't trade through) and I was stopped on remaining 6. Then on the next trade, I was stopped out to the tick as I then watched price hit my target. Markets move miles but this is a game of inches most days!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$658(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-658
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	59
Avg$Loss:	-716

Wed. 6/08

11:25am CDT - One and done again today. From the moves in grains, there was lots of potential to catch at least one 4+ cent move. Corn touched lock limit up (766.50).

I'm doing a trial of NinjaTrader with DTN:IQFeed data. So far I'm liking it and this would save me about $600/year over eSignal pricing. If anyone has anything they don't like about Ninja or IQFeed, I'd love to hear it.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1559(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	1559
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	1559
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 6/07

11:10am CDT - One and done today.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1559(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	1559
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	1559
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 6/06

1:25pm CDT - 1 for 2 today. Price dropped 18 cents after I exited my short but I executed my system flawlessly so no complaints.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $867(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	867
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	1508
Avg$Loss:	-641

Fri. 6/03

1:15pm CDT - 2 more losers today. Came within a tick of a profitable day on the one trade but it was not to be. For the week, net loss of -$3524.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1283(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-1283
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-641

Thurs. 6/02

1:20pm CDT - 2 losers today. If only my system had caught part of the initial 20 cent move up in the first couple minutes, but it did not.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1433(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-1433
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-716

Wed. 6/01

11:10am CDT - Back to trading my old ZS system which takes a max of 2 trades a day. This gives me lots of time to work on other systems as well. Below is the performance over past 17 months and how impeccable my timing has been in trading the system. I don't remember exactly when I resumed trading it late last year as my results I record daily are mixed in with another ZS system I was trading at that time.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1559(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	1559
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	1559
Avg$Loss:	0

May Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS $957, GCL -$101, RLM -$816

RESULTS FOR MAY
Contracts:	554
Net $P/L:	40
Wins:	102
Losses:	89
Win%:	53
$Commissions:	2807
Avg$Win:	245
Avg$Loss:	-280

Tues. 5/31

2:05pm CDT - Left the screens off most of weekend but did analyze my ZS discretionary trades. The answer to my trading woes, to the casual outsider looking in, is to just stop for the day when I hit a certain limit. If I stop on the upside after $750, why not stop trading if I hit –$750 on downside? That would avoid the –$2500 hits I have had recently right? Yes, but it does not help the overall results. There were many days where I would be below a downside limit but would rally back and end up on the plus side. In analyzing my trades over past 5 weeks, my net P/L would be ~15% lower if I had always stopped after my daily P/L hit an upside OR downside limit. As usual, trading is never as black and white as one might hope.

The past 5 weeks have been eye opening in one respect, I still suck at discretionary trading. Sure I had some nice streaks, but giving it all back is not acceptable. I need firm rules to cover all scenarios and for that reason I will return to mechanical system trading starting tomorrow. I hope to develop my recent methodology into a system to supplement my original ZS system that I stopped trading twice over the past year right at the bottom of drawdowns!

Since I stopped trading my old ZS system around April 7, it has done very well capturing more than 60 cents total and trading 10 lots would have hypothetically netted over $23k (taking slippage and commissions into account). I'll post an updated system P/L curve soon.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2367(30)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	30
Net $P/L:	-2367
Wins:	3
Losses:	3
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	147
Avg$Loss:	-936

Fri. 5/27

1:40pm CDT - Arghhhh. Gave back 4 days of gains. And I've basically been breakeven for the past 3 weeks now. Maybe the long weekend will give me some clarity on how to avoid days like this. For the week, net gain of $109.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2722(60)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	60
Net $P/L:	-2722
Wins:	3
Losses:	7
Win%:	30
Avg$Win:	404
Avg$Loss:	-562

Thurs. 5/26

10:50am CDT - Hit my fuzzy daily goal (now $750) with 2 longs and 2 shorts so shutting it down early.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $785(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	785
Wins:	4
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	196
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 5/25

11:25am CDT - Slow day in grains again and I could have accomplished in 2 trades what ended up taking me 3 if I had been more patient. Closing up shop early.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $726(12)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	726
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	242
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 5/24

1:40pm CDT - Much easier than yesterday. But yesterday's effort made me quick on the exit trigger on a couple trades. But that's okay...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $829(21)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	829
Wins:	5
Losses:	1
Win%:	83
Avg$Win:	191
Avg$Loss:	-128

Mon. 5/23

1:30pm CDT - It was war today, up $400, down $900, and up to profit high for day on last trade of day with many small gains/losses mixed in the middle. ZS was spurty and choppy which made trading difficult.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $491(72)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	72
Net $P/L:	491
Wins:	8
Losses:	7
Win%:	53
Avg$Win:	365
Avg$Loss:	-347

Fri. 5/20

12:45pm CDT - Better day to end the week. Pushed a little too hard to make something happen after being up $980 after first 5 trades, then lost $760 over next 3, only to win back $770 on final 4 trades. After that, I knew I should quit while I was ahead as I should have done after initial 5 trades. Yesterday's loss subconsciously had something to do with it I'm sure! Net loss for the week -$596. If I exclude CL and RLM, I was up $742 on ZS. Note to self: stick with what works.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $990(48)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	48
Net $P/L:	990
Wins:	7
Losses:	5
Win%:	58
Avg$Win:	297
Avg$Loss:	-218

Thurs. 5/19

12:15pm CDT - Wrong day to increase size on ZS. RLM chopped me around early. "Augh" sums up the effort well.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2017(30), RLM -$823(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	37
Net $P/L:	-2841
Wins:	1
Losses:	9
Win%:	10
Avg$Win:	735
Avg$Loss:	-397

Wed. 5/18

11:00am CDT - I replaced CL with TF today (RLM on OEC platform), but just broke even there. I really don't need anything else to trade besides the grains but I'm up so early most days it's hard to just sit on my hands until grains open at 9:30am CT! I should move to the west coast and work 7:30 - 11:15 PT. Those would be the best hours!

Results since my drawdown ended speak for themselves as to why I've kicked CL to the curb (for now)...

Grains were on fire straight from the open today. I only got one 4 cent chunk of the 30 cent rocket up and got 2 cents more on the brief correction down from the top. My position I was stuck in last night that I took off for even could have netted $3500+ if only I were a swing trader. LOL

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $774(5), RLM $7(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	781
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	310
Avg$Loss:	-75

Tues. 5/17

2:05pm CDT - Lost $600 in crude to start the day and I may throw in towel for awhile on that symbol. When it can move regularly over $200 per contract in 10 seconds it is way too wild for scalping! I should know better!

Meanwhile, ZS paid nicely today offsetting more than the CL losses although I had to work for it and left much on table. But 2 losers at end of day brought me back to red overall. I literally left it on table (2 contracts long) at the closing bell when I thought I would get filled on my exit order but did not. So I will update my stats below later tonight when I exit that position (hope it doesn't gap down!)

6:15pm CDT EDIT: Got out of 2 long ZS at par (13.4175). Of course it went up 2.5 cents right after my exit. Wheat is actually up 9 cents from it's close, now just 15 min. after the open.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $576(24), CL -$618(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	28
Net $P/L:	-42
Wins:	6
Losses:	8
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	229
Avg$Loss:	-177

Mon. 5/16

12:30pm CDT - As usual, took a couple trades off too early but made the daily allowance.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $419(6), CL $97(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	516
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	182
Avg$Loss:	-107

Fri. 5/13

2:00pm CDT - Back to "normal" today on Friday the 13th. Good thing I'm not superstitious! CL was a pain in the rear with large stops required for any chance of success. I still can't seem to hold for big gains and partly to blame is that I'm not convinced it's a better approach. An early ZS short I took off for 3 cents, then it immediately fell another 8 cents! I've seen too many times when that 2-4 cent gain reverses and stops out a trade at breakeven or a loss. Such is the trader's never ending dilemma....

Results for the week, net gain of $644.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $632(6), CL -$86(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	546
Wins:	6
Losses:	5
Win%:	55
Avg$Win:	240
Avg$Loss:	-179

Thurs. 5/12

1:30pm CDT - Down early in the chop and could not recover. Was trying to get to under $1000 loss but was not to be. I did miss some key victories either by taking a break after the chop, getting stopped to the tick, or exiting early. At least the "pseudo" pressure of the former win streak is off my shoulders.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1667(42), CL $91(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	44
Net $P/L:	-1576
Wins:	7
Losses:	12
Win%:	37
Avg$Win:	236
Avg$Loss:	-269

Wed. 5/11

11:30am CDT - Met my $500 goal just 4 min. after the grain open. One more trade after that for good measure. Enjoying this steak while it lasts and seeing long-term potential in my methodology.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $469(6), CL $206(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	675
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	225
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 5/10

1:30pm CDT - Tough day with little movement in beans until the final 15 minutes which I missed. Patience was the name of the game today. A ZS short trade I was in was pure agony as I watched wheat drop 9 cents and corn drop 6. Of course %&#@! beans had no sympathy and only dropped 2! I'll take what I can get...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $436(22), CL -$4(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	23
Net $P/L:	432
Wins:	3
Losses:	5
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	294
Avg$Loss:	-90

Oil Crash and Margins

8:50pm CDT - Interesting perspective from the NYMEX pits on last Thursday's oil crash here.

And according to CME Clearing, looks like CL margins (and other energy products) are going up 25%. CL initial margin is going from $6750 to $8438. And many currency futures are going up 33%. 6E (EC) going from $4050 to $5400 per contract. Brokers will be adjusting day trading margins to correspond no doubt!

Mon. 5/09

12:30pm CDT - Avoided trouble by staying on the right side and booked another nice day. I'm resisting the urge to tweak my methodology on ZS but am thinking of adding another approach trading the eminis or 6E.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $567(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	567
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	162
Avg$Loss:	-40

Fri. 5/06

11:25am CDT - It's Friday and the weather is nice so I'm packing it in early after hitting my "fuzzy" goal of $500 yet again. I'm sure this streak won't last forever but I can be content with $500 most days especially when I consider I can easily double or triple my lot size given my equity. But as I've only been trading my discretionary methodology for a few weeks now, it's too soon to think about that. Results for week, net gain of $2250.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $394(6), CL $106(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	500
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	166
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 5/05

1:35pm CDT - Lack of patience today led to some overtrading but I ended up where I wanted to. Amazed at the move in crude oil today. That shook me around early in day so I gave up on that wild thing. Hats off to Pit Storm's $10k 1-lot CL trade! (of course he had to hold it nearly a week, but still!)

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $390(31), CL $113(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	37
Net $P/L:	503
Wins:	11
Losses:	7
Win%:	61
Avg$Win:	180
Avg$Loss:	-211

Wed. 5/04

1:20pm CDT - Unlike yesterday, despite a nearly identical profit curve, I finished at the equity high of the day. That's more like it! Happy Star Wars Day - May the Fourth Be With You!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $828(14), CL -$314(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	24
Net $P/L:	513
Wins:	8
Losses:	7
Win%:	53
Avg$Win:	242
Avg$Loss:	-203

Tues. 5/03

1:40pm CDT - Tough day at the office but finished on the plus side at least. Below is the swing in the profit curve for today's trades. I was going to stop after being up $500 but didn't want to get in the habit of being complacent with that. You can see what market karma thought of the decision to trade more.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $20(30), CL $207(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	33
Net $P/L:	227
Wins:	8
Losses:	5
Win%:	62
Avg$Win:	212
Avg$Loss:	-294

Mon. 5/02

1:35pm CDT - 2nd trade of day was an early morning long in CL that stopped out by 4 ticks then went up 240 ticks without me. I did get a little chunk of action on 3rd trade to get above water but should have held for more. Good start to week and month.

Admin note: Monthly statement link updated on the right.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $404(4), CL $102(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	507
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	368
Avg$Loss:	-115