Mon. 1/10

1:20pm CST - One and done today. The early volatility nearly chopped me out. This seems to be the norm now, less so last year. Either that or I got used to the calmer Nov./Dec. grain markets and forgot how they can jump up and down 4-8 ticks in milliseconds?

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1823(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	1823
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	1823
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 1/07

2:20pm CST - So much for ending the week on an up note. It was chop galore on 75% of my signals today. I had unrealized of +$1k early on but that didn't last long. Down for the week net -$841.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2347(60), ZW $448(10), RLM $486(5), CL -$967(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	90
Net $P/L:	-2380
Wins:	4
Losses:	12
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	524
Avg$Loss:	-373

Thurs. 1/06

1:30pm CST - Feels like a red day but the end result says different. Not sure if that feeling is a good thing or a bad thing. Certainly not feeling complacent after 4 days into the new year.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $845(30), ZW $359(20)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	50
Net $P/L:	1205
Wins:	4
Losses:	4
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	771
Avg$Loss:	-470

Wed. 1/05

2:00pm CST - A grinder of a day. I'm realizing that my plan this year of letting winners run longer is going to be a challenge. But that's what trading is...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $769(35), ZW $209(25)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	60
Net $P/L:	978
Wins:	6
Losses:	5
Win%:	55
Avg$Win:	418
Avg$Loss:	-306

Tues. 1/04

2:10pm CST - And there's the new year humbling I needed! Grrr......
And I find out today that NFA fees on futures seem to have gone from 2 cents per share to 4 cents per share. Happy New Year!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$3047(60), ZW $1120(30)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	90
Net $P/L:	-1927
Wins:	3
Losses:	13
Win%:	19
Avg$Win:	808
Avg$Loss:	-335

Mon. 1/03

11:20am CST - Admin note: I've added "Past Performance Results" over there in the right margin of this blog. That will be updated monthly. And I will cease posting my weekly P/L chart since I will be updating my equity curve monthly instead.

Tough Sunday evening as I foolishly thought that the grain opening would be stellar in the first open of the year. Down as much as $2.4k on 30 contracts with the last ZW winning long stopping me out to the tick before drifting to my target 6 cents higher over an hour later (pic below). But a 10-lot ZS short this morning more than offset the Sun. night mishaps to wrap up the 1st trading day of 2011 in my favorite color: GREEN!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1758(30), ZW -$464(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	40
Net $P/L:	1294
Wins:	2
Losses:	5
Win%:	29
Avg$Win:	1849
Avg$Loss:	-481

2011 Goal and 2010 Trade Analysis

Well it wasn't the year I was shooting for but it was positive in many respects so no complaints. Starting this year, I'm going to start posting my monthly statements. I've never posted the size of my trading accounts before but since my "Calling all Bloggers" post asked for more transparency/inspiration from others, why not belly up to the bar myself and post this missing info? After all, being well capitalized is a huge advantage in any trader's success, in my opinion.

That being said, I trade 2 accounts and combined I started 2010 with $52,000 and ended the year with $78,500 for a net return in 2010 of $26,500 or +51%.

My goal for 2011 is 100%+ return! I know it can be done. I will be focusing mostly on the grains.

Now for an analysis of 2010 trades after crunching all the data.

GCL, RLM, and ZS had enough trades to warrant charting each:

Other charts combine all trades made and are self explanatory.


The reasons for the poor performance in the 2nd half of the year are many. I hit my P/L peak in mid-August at $34,800 and have been in a drawdown since then. Most notably was that my main CL and ZS systems both suffered drawdowns at the same time and I stopped trading them. Turns out that the ZS system would have recovered nicely and returned to normal if I had grinded through the drawdown. The other major factor is evident in the R:R monthly chart above. After March, it starts sloping down. Tweaking systems likely contributed too and I must resist my engineering tendencies to always change things.

Look forward to 2011! Bring it on!

Quarter 4 2010 Trading Results

And a look at the entire year of 2010:

December Trading Summary

Net breakdown:
ZS $6538, ZW -$958, ZC -$168, RLM $831, GCL -$2061, 6E -$127

RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
Contracts:	558
Net $P/L:	4054
Wins:	87
Losses:	78
Win%:	53
Avg$Win:	314
Avg$Loss:	-299

Last Trading Day of the Year

2:20pm CST - Nice to end the week, month, year on an up note. Look for a trading recap of 2010 stats over the weekend.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1229(9), ZW -$556(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	673
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	614
Avg$Loss:	-278

For the past 2 weeks, net was $2270 in beans, $864 in wheat, $1 in crude, -$5 in euro.

Wed. 12/29

11:40am CST - No patience again today to hold for bigger gains. But I am managing the goal of staying out of trouble this week. 1 more day...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $27(7), ZW $285(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	311
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	275
Avg$Loss:	-240

Tues. 12/28

1:25pm CST - Lulled into submission for a tick on a short ZS trade that would have netted 4+ cents. Looking forward to more volume next week!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$437(12), ZW $435(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	-2
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	240
Avg$Loss:	-481

Mon. 12/27

11:35am CST - Not much action today but could have held on for more upside in beans. Oh well. I'm not into trading much this week anyways. ...still in Christmas food coma!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $269(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	269
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	269
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 12/22

12:45pm CST - Scratch day. I think I'm done for the week unless I see something tempting tomorrow. I expect things to be uber dead. I really expected little today but ZW surprised me big time. ZS, unlike yesterday or ZW today, was muted.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$106(6), ZW $172(3), GCL $1(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	67
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	137
Avg$Loss:	-172

Tues. 12/21

10:30am CST - Planned shorter targets today on ZS trades and done trading early after hitting $1k. Of course the expected muted ranges with Christmas so near can not really be predicted by anyone on any particular symbol. ZS had a 16 cent range in the 1st hour today - very respectable!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $719(6), ZW $344(6), 6E -$5(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	1059
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	355
Avg$Loss:	-5

Mon. 12/20

1:15pm CST - I took "not getting into too much trouble" seriously today and stopped early. I did take off the ZS trade 2 cents earlier than plan which cost me $500. I'm human - what can you do...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $569(6), ZW $185(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	754
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	377
Avg$Loss:	0

Calling All Bloggers

I have the utmost respect for all my fellow trading bloggers who toil at the keyboard day in and day out, for lots of different reasons, to bring us something to read. Sure everyone is free to post whatever they want for it is their blog after all, but I would like to pose a challenge for 2011.

And that is... Post your Net P/L in dollars on a daily or weekly basis and provide at least a quarterly or yearly recap, preferably as an equity curve.

We all know that the lack of transparency in this industry is shameful. Nobody really knows how anyone else is performing or how many traders are successful. Brokers just won't share this information (for fear of scaring new traders away and losing commissions!). Personally, I read trading blogs for inspiration mostly. Sure some report pips or ticks gained on the day but what really matters is the bottom line. Props to those that already report $P/L: Jules, Sandy, De'Trader, Michael, Bare Bones, etc. (although some lack a periodic recap)

This challenge goes out to those that don't: Austin, Don Miller, etc. (to name just a couple that I know can take this constructive critique). As educators, I guess they have the most to lose (or gain) by showing their real trading performance. Don used to show his performance and Austin does sometimes show his daily ticks.

I do give kudos to Austin if he follows through on his recent announcement on attempting to take an account to a million in 2011 and doing so in public fashion. Hopefully it does not fall by the wayside like his $5000 account experiment in early 2010 did. (Austin, please correct me if I am mistaken about that. Perhaps you still trade that account up but only share details with your clients?)

If anyone knows of any good blogs out there that I don't have in my blogroll that meet this criteria, please let me know. Even the old P/L thread at elitetrader (that I used to post on in 2007) lacks any inspiration these days as it has shriveled up to scant few posts.

No need to proclaim your acceptance or refusal of this challenge but I hope to be pleasantly surprised when I start blog surfing in 2011! :)

Fri. 12/17

1:30pm CST - Another tough day fighting the pre-holiday dead volume tapes! Some things worked, others didn't. 4 ticks slippage on one ZS entry ($300)! I was my own worst enemy on some trades like this euro trade that lured me into submission after 45 minutes:

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1213(12), ZW -$143(6), GCL -$1422(14), 6E $266(2), RLM -$1043(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	49
Net $P/L:	-1130
Wins:	5
Losses:	10
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	338
Avg$Loss:	-282

For the week, net was $4760 in beans, -$1083 in wheat, -$195 in mini-Russell, -$3252 in crude, $259 in euro. Doing an early look back on the year, basically all my profits came from ZS, around $24k.

Thurs. 12/16

1:50pm CST - Bounced around between -$400 and +$700. I was going to stop at >$1000 but that never happened. At least I'm positive.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $507(18), ZW -$743(6), GCL $413(6), 6E -$103(6), RLM $36(12)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	48
Net $P/L:	110
Wins:	6
Losses:	8
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	397
Avg$Loss:	-284

Wed. 12/15

3:00pm CST - Tiring day with mistakes a plenty. Up $400+ early on then downhill from there. I know better than to trade CL around inventory report but it had been awhile so I paid the market to reteach me that lesson. 2-lot stop orders slipped 19 ticks! Other errors made were mostly taking trades off early. The comatose tapes lure you into thinking nothing is going to move anywhere and just when you exit, POP - tapes fly for a short spell.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1280(21), ZW -$481(6), GCL -$2213(30), 6E $97(6), RLM $327(15)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	78
Net $P/L:	-990
Wins:	10
Losses:	16
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	360
Avg$Loss:	-287

Tues. 12/14

1:50pm CST - Crude got me red early on, down $600, but the grains bailed me out. FOMC announcement was the biggest non-market mover ever! I'm trying to take it easy for rest of year (without reducing size) and not get into too much trouble. So far, so good.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $816(9), ZW $284(3), GCL -$242(14)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	26
Net $P/L:	859
Wins:	6
Losses:	4
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	269
Avg$Loss:	-189

Mon. 12/13

1:15pm CST - Winners all around today. And after I decided to quit, the next few signals would have added more to the take. Oh well. I am a bit pissed at ZS today however, I had 3 ticks of slippage on one fill - 1 is expected, 2 is rare, but 3!?#&*#^$? That was $225 on my 6-lot...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $944(6), RLM $486(5), GCL $211(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	1641
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	547
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 12/10

1:00pm CST - An early end today to a roller coaster, break even week. A nice 4-cent ZS winner was captured in 10 seconds. That thing can fly!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1266(9), ZW -$196(9), GCL $525(8), 6E $116(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	28
Net $P/L:	1710
Wins:	8
Losses:	2
Win%:	80
Avg$Win:	293
Avg$Loss:	-315

For the week, net was $456 in beans, -$1412 in wheat, -$165 in corn, $307 in mini-Russell, $1282 in crude, -$422 in euro. And it was a near perfect double bottom:

Thurs. 12/09

2:50pm CST - No emini trades as things there were really dead on rollover day. Should have stayed out of 6E too I guess. And ZS slapped my 6-lots around nicely today as if I was the ball in a ping pong game. My P/L curve is in a big wedge (will post at end of month). For my sanity, it better break out to the up side!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$2204(30), ZW $723(15), GCL $755(8), 6E -$778(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	59
Net $P/L:	-1505
Wins:	8
Losses:	9
Win%:	47
Avg$Win:	222
Avg$Loss:	-365

Wed. 12/08

1:55pm CST - ZS winner made the day. ZW burnt me for 5 cents total on 3 trades before I got 2 cents back on 4th and then gave up. At least I stuck to 3-lots on ZW today.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1169(6), ZW -$512(12), RLM $571(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	28
Net $P/L:	1229
Wins:	4
Losses:	3
Win%:	57
Avg$Win:	506
Avg$Loss:	-265

Tues. 12/07

3:05pm CST - Unlike last Friday, I was unable to get back to green after losses in my core ZS system. Partly to blame was increasing size on scalping positions in ZW to a 6-lot which would have been great if I wasn't stopped out. It would have been a stellar day if I had reversed positions at most of my stop out points. Something else to look at... 2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$923(24), ZW -$1427(15), ZC -$165(3), GCL $2(4), 6E $241(2), RLM -$264(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	53
Net $P/L:	-2537
Wins:	6
Losses:	8
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	157
Avg$Loss:	-435

Mon. 12/06

1:05pm CST - A couple 2-lot scalps Sun evening for 1.5 cents each within the first 15 min. of the open and a 6-lotter short this morning for double that is enough for the day for this trader. Watched some very nice and sizable swings in ZW today - that symbol is tempting me to trade it much more actively.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $1149(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	1149
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	383
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 12/03

2:05pm CST - Tough day thanks to ZS being choppy and stopping me out by 2 ticks on an early trade. Otherwise that minus sign after ZS below would have been a plus. This continues to be a game of ticks. One or two here or there makes all the difference sometimes. You might think I overtraded today but part of my new plan, after a loss in my core systems, is to take new scalp signals that I have been working on this past week. I was $1600 in the red today mid-morning so am pleased I got back to par with the new scalps. As usual, time will tell if this plan will work going forward.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$1098(24), ZW $673(15), ZC -$3(3), RLM $486(5), GCL -$68(4), 6E $40(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	53
Net $P/L:	30
Wins:	9
Losses:	7
Win%:	56
Avg$Win:	230
Avg$Loss:	-291

For the past 2 weeks, net was $456 in beans, $673 in wheat, -$3 in corn, $975 in mini-Russell, -$83 in ES, -$92 in crude, $41 in euro.

Thurs. 12/02

2:50pm CST - Nearly had a one trade and done day in ZS if only it had traded 1 tick higher and filled my limit order locking in $1100. But it didn't happen. RLM had zero signals and was really dead today. Is it a holiday somewhere? System testing with a 1-lot CL trade...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$795(21), GCL -$24(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	22
Net $P/L:	-820
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	89
Avg$Loss:	-333

Wed. 12/01

1:35pm CST - A nice 6-lot ZS trade short to start the month for just over 3 cents and a quick 5-lot RLM short for a point and another 1-lot out for breakeven. Wheat was on fire to start out and closed up 7%. Beans had a nice rally near 20 cents up after I got out of my short but I was content to watch.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $944(6), RLM $233(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	1177
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	590
Avg$Loss:	-3