Another year in the books. Where does the time go? And another year failing to reach the 100% return goal! It's also the 2nd year in a row where I am gross positive but net negative thanks to the cost of commissions and/or lack of a sustained edge. Over the past 12 months, I took $56,391 and turned it into $50,013. That's a net loss of
$6,378 or
-11%. Who cares that my gross gain was
+$3,063? Not me...
The most glaring thing I noticed about the numbers is that I am in a long-term, love/hate relationship with ZS. ZS was my biggest gain of 2012, biggest loss of
2011, and my biggest gain of
2010. I also noticed that R:R alone does not equal success. My best month (Oct.) was not the highest R:R ratio and my 2nd best month (May) was actually one of the lower R:R ratios at 0.8.
Isolating the curves for the symbols I traded most CL, NQ, ZS yields this look:
Finally, a few more charts looking at all trades:
That last chart seems to show fairly clearly that trades I exit more quickly tend to be losers and trades held longer (6+ min.) tend to win more often. The conclusion in past years has been similar. I think this is best explained because the longer you hold a trade, the more likely you are to overcome the spread (or make it negligible) because price has time to move away from your entry. A trade held for 0 seconds, the extreme example, means you bought at bid and instantly sold at ask, or vice versa. A 1 tick loser no matter what!
Needless to say, I am still searching for a methodology and system(s) that have a consistent edge that I can trade. Perhaps 2013 will be the year! Onward we go...
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