2013 Trade Analysis

Well I can't say I'm happy about how the year went but I didn't blow up any accounts or do any major damage that can't be overcome.  Over the past 12 months, I took $50,013 and turned it into $43,019 for a net loss of -$6994 or -14%.  As mentioned, this is the third year in a row I have been gross positive, but net negative.  I can't seem to cover my commissions.  Previous year's analysis: 2010, 2011, 2012.

If you look at the 4 years I have been showing my equity curve, I have actually grossed $57,179 in profits but after deducting commissions, my net is a loss of -$9065.  Most of this gross gain was in 2010 but the bottom line is I have not demonstrated any consistent edge since then that can overcome the cost of commissions.

Delving into the numbers for 2013 below, I noted (no surprise) that my better months tended to be when my Avg$Win/Avg$Loss (Reward:Risk) was higher.  On the bright side, ZS was again my best symbol and I also did okay with system trades in 6E.

Looking just at NQ and ZS which I traded most often:

A few more looking at all trades below.  The 4th chart isn't as smooth as some past years but once again it proves that it's really hard to produce a consistent winner in the first minutes a trade is open. It takes time to recoup spread, slippage, and commission.

That's it for now. I'll elaborate more on my plan for 2014 in January. My trading may be limited for the short term as I work on plans. Happy 2014 to all!

Quarter 4 2013 Trading Results

December Trading Results

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $911(85), ES $58(16), NQ $36(141), TF -$2766(33), CL -$1131(7), 6E $856(4)

RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
Contracts:	286
Net $P/L:	-2036
Wins:	45
Losses:	56
Win%:	45
$Commissions:	986
Avg$Win:	274
Avg$Loss:	-257

Tues. 12/31

11:35am CST - Year end wrap-up coming later but the abbreviated version is that I lost $7k or 14% of my equity this year.  Final equity curve on the right.  It is also the third year in a row that I was gross positive but did not cover commissions.

To address the comments from a couple days ago, I understand your concern but my blog does not provide you enough information for you to decide my future. Sure, everyone has an opinion and my trading results are 100% transparent but you do not know the whole picture of my life, other income sources, etc.  Trading remains my passion and "past performance does not guarantee future results" works both ways.  The future is unknown of course, but good trading to all in 2014!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $340(2), TF -$220(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	119
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	174
Avg$Loss:	-114

Mon. 12/30

2:50pm CST - In case you haven't heard, CME is raising some prices. I'm sure your broker, like mine, will pass these along.  Starting in 2 days, you will pay 2 cents more per roundtrip for E-minis and 28 cents more for grains. 
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$281(6), NQ $24(10)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-257
Wins:	2
Losses:	4
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	147
Avg$Loss:	-138

Thurs. 12/26

3:00pm CST - Beans ended up moving more than I thought they would.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	204
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	102
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 12/23

5:50pm CST - Made 1 attempt today and figured that was enough.  It went a few points in favor before stopping me out.  I'm in Holiday mode now!

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	5
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	5
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 12/20

2:00pm CST - For the week, net gain $274. 

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	604
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	302
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 12/19

2:00pm CST - Chopped to pieces. No FOMC to bail me out today!  Nearly had a nice ZS day if not for a stop out to exact tick....
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$356(6), NQ -$1257(35)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	41
Net $P/L:	-1613
Wins:	1
Losses:	8
Win%:	11
Avg$Win:	37
Avg$Loss:	-206

Wed. 12/18 -FOMC Day

3:00pm CST - Tough start to the day and nearly threw in the towel but I knew FOMC would give plenty of opportunity to get out of the hole.  Very frustrating day on ZS which is rolling over and I did quit on that just before it dropped 20 cents!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$841(8), NQ $1036(74), 6E $441(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	84
Net $P/L:	635
Wins:	6
Losses:	14
Win%:	30
Avg$Win:	635
Avg$Loss:	-227

Tues. 12/17

3:05pm CST - First time in many, many months I clicked the wrong part of my DOM.  I meant to click in middle to set an alert but I clicked the "buy" part instead and got in long accidentally on my first trade.  I bailed right away for a $25 loss.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $204(4), NQ $108(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	312
Wins:	5
Losses:	3
Win%:	63
Avg$Win:	102
Avg$Loss:	-65

Mon. 12/16 & CTA Performers

2:25pm CST - Yes, I should have held long trades in both symbols for much much much longer...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $215(2), NQ $120(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	334
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	170
Avg$Loss:	-5

CTA Performance
Below is from Barclay's 4th Quarter 2013 Managed Funds Report. Interesting to me is "largest drawdown" amounts and the fact that most of them normally have 3 or 4 losing months each year.

In other news, you can trade penny stocks and become a millionaire! I wonder how much Tim Sykes paid CNN to publish this "story?"

Fri. 12/13

2:55pm CST - Friday the 13th...  For the week, net gain $751.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $4(4), TF -$846(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	-841
Wins:	1
Losses:	4
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	165
Avg$Loss:	-252

Thurs. 12/12

2:50pm CST - Should have held the initial short!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	398
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	206
Avg$Loss:	-110

Wed. 12/11

2:15pm CST -

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$854(8), TF $917(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	64
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	917
Avg$Loss:	-285

Tues. 12/10

1:20pm CST - Crop report made for an interesting day as predicted.  Did okay once I got on the right side.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	14
Net $P/L:	628
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	325
Avg$Loss:	-335

Mon. 12/09

1:25pm CST - Guess I can live with $62 in slippage when I can make $500 in under a minute.  Tomorrow's monthly crop report at 11am CST will make for an interesting day in grains.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	502
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	502
Avg$Loss:	0

Guess I'm not the only one having a bad year. This likely lends to the theory that trading is becoming harder, not easier.

Fri. 12/06

2:25pm CST - Traded ES just after NFP reports and couldn't get anything to stick.  Glad this week is over.  For week, down net -$3132.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $7(6), TF $7(1), ES $58(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	23
Net $P/L:	72
Wins:	5
Losses:	4
Win%:	56
Avg$Win:	280
Avg$Loss:	-332

Thurs. 12/05

2:20pm CST - I should know better. Increasing size on a discretionary TF system that I haven't traded live for that long knowing that there are a limited number of trading days left in year which means a limited number of days to get back to breakeven or above, is not the most sound approach.  On the plus side, a 6E system trade worked very well.
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $416(2), TF -$2481(12)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	14
Net $P/L:	-2066
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	416
Avg$Loss:	-827

Wed. 12/04

1:30pm CST - Missed the move up (in soybeans too!) and thought I got enough of the move down...

RESULTS FOR DAY
TF Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	515
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	515
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 12/03

2:55pm CST -
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $35(3), TF -$490(4)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	-456
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	35
Avg$Loss:	-263

Mon. 12/02

3:30pm CST -
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS $102(2), TF -$168(3), CL -$1131(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-1197
Wins:	3
Losses:	4
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	95
Avg$Loss:	-371