April Trading Summary

Note: Only traded 9 days during month
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$259(2), TF $789(27)

RESULTS FOR APRIL
Contracts:	29
Net $P/L:	530
Wins:	7
Losses:	7
Win%:	50
$Commissions:	80
Avg$Win:	408
Avg$Loss:	-332

Wed. 4/25

2:35pm CDT - I’ve been in this game long enough that it shouldn’t surprise me any more how quickly things can turn on a dime. Did my new strategy just have “beginner’s luck” last week? And now it’s back to reality? Today I found myself second guessing a couple exits and subsequently moved stops, contradicting my plan. So test period is over for now as I do some more homework.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded): TF -$766(6), CL -$259(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	-1025
Wins:	0
Losses:	4
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-256

Tues. 4/24

1:25pm CDT - Short before the news.

RESULTS FOR DAY
TF Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	-1285
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-1285

Mon. 4/23

1:00pm CDT - Went short a couple times.  Market will likely fall into close since I am done.

RESULTS FOR DAY
TF Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	10
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	13
Avg$Loss:	-3

Fri. 4/20

10:40am CDT - Not bad.  Good to be trading again with results like this week (knock on wood).  For the week, net gain of +$1569.

RESULTS FOR DAY
TF Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	505
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	505
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 4/19

2:30pm CDT - Wild swings today thanks to news and options expiry and whatever else...

RESULTS FOR DAY
TF Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	15
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	15
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 4/18

12:30pm CDT - TF was going nowhere fast this morning so I’m content with today’s performance. I am kicking myself for not getting a fill on a CL short however. I’m incorporating my new strategy to also trade CL inventory report days and the first day today of trading CL would have been $500+. Missed fill by just a tick – maybe I should use market orders.

I still consider myself in test mode as I am not 100% confident in my new rules just yet. But what better way to do that than with live trading!? I mostly gave up trying to completely code things as a Ninja Strategy. I just don’t have the advanced skills or desire to finish this. But what I have learned about Ninja programming in past couple months will certainly be useful going forward. As before, I don’t plan to discuss strategy details on this public blog but I will add that I am using longer timeframe charts and am scaling in entries more so than before.

RESULTS FOR DAY
TF Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	327
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	342
Avg$Loss:	-15

Tues. 4/17

10:20am CDT - Moved stop up too soon in hindsight. But it wasn't a bad day...

RESULTS FOR DAY
TF Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	225
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	225
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 4/16

12:50pm CDT - Short this morning from 796.5

RESULTS FOR DAY
TF Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	497
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	497
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 4/13

9:50am CDT - It's been so long I have been itching to trade again so decided to throw caution and Friday the 13th superstitions to the wind and call it a test day. Glad I did. Still working on system development...

RESULTS FOR DAY
TF Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	1262
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	1262
Avg$Loss:	0

Throwing in the towel

This is madness. The markets are too efficient and random to make a go of this any longer. I am tired of feeding my broker and not myself. Therefore I am done. Back to engineering it is for me.

I wish you all the best.

9:30 pm EDIT: Read comments

Quarter 1 2012 Trading Results

March Trading Summary

Note: Only traded 3 days during month
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$576(8), ES -$1446(27)

RESULTS FOR MARCH
Contracts:	35
Net $P/L:	-2021
Wins:	3
Losses:	8
Win%:	27
$Commissions:	106
Avg$Win:	160
Avg$Loss:	-313

Thurs. 3/29

2:40pm CDT - More testing and likely enough, for now, with month end tomorrow and a short week next week.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	-1625
Wins:	0
Losses:	3
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-542

Wed. 3/28

2:20pm CDT - Testing day. ES okay, CL not so much.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
ES $82(7), CL -$576(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	-494
Wins:	2
Losses:	5
Win%:	29
Avg$Win:	191
Avg$Loss:	-175

Thoughts

I really want to get back to live trading but I continue to delay for many reasons.

First, the market will always be there so what's the hurry really? Particularly when I consider that my total equity is exactly the same as it was 2 years ago.

Second, I have not been satisfied with my system development efforts with NinjaScript Strategy. There are nuisances to programming and/or bugs I can't seem to overcome, yet... Not sure if I will get there or not but at a minimum, it is useful for testing ideas one component at a time even if I have to later piece them together in Excel.

Finally, I'm toying with idea of holding overnight (i.e. swing trading hourly charts). I haven't done that in many years but this is a no-brainer way to reduce commission costs which are always difficult to overcome when day trading.

That's my thoughts this Friday anyways. Subject to change.

401k Trading

OK, don't buy this book. I just posted this because I had a laugh that Google/Yahoo knows what ads they should insert into webpages I'm viewing. They know all! And rather than "Daytrade your 401(k)" and be stuck with limited choices, you can just roll it to an IRA, have it held in a trust, then trade Forex, futures, whatever. Bet that isn't in this "guru's" book! Oh, non-Americans can ignore this post. Guess I should have put that in the beginning...

Fri. 3/09

10:30am CST - It had been so long I had to see if could still press the mouse button. And yes, this trade was fully defined before I got in, except of course, for the ridiculous lag in fill confirmation.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	97
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	97
Avg$Loss:	0

Patience

"The practice of patience protects us from losing our composure. In doing that it enables us to exercise discernment, even in the heat of difficult situations. It gives us inner space. And within that space we gain a degree of self-control, which allows us to respond to situations in an appropriate and compassionate manner rather than being driven by our anger and irritation." by Dalai Lama

Risk Reward

9:10am CST - Not sure when I'll be satisfied with system tweaks and backtested results from NinjaTrader Strategy Analyzer to go live again but I expect it will be in next week or two. It is a very powerful tool I should have learned how to use years ago (although that might have been hard since I only switched to Ninja last summer)!

The results below from 1 system that I ran through the optimizer throws aside the notion that your winners must always be bigger than your losers. It crunched all the scenarios varying the target from 10 to 150 ticks and the stop from 10 to 100 ticks, in increments of 5 ticks to find the highest net profit over past 6 months. Note that this is just an example and arguably, net profit isn't necessarily the best metric to optimize.

February Trading Summary

Note: Only traded 7 days during month
Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$461(7), ZS -$1467(88)

RESULTS FOR FEBRUARY
Contracts:	95
Net $P/L:	-1928
Wins:	8
Losses:	21
Win%:	28
$Commissions:	485
Avg$Win:	297
Avg$Loss:	-205

Inner Spock

1:45pm CST - Why are the simplest things the hardest to program? I'm making slow progress in learning NinjaScript Strategy coding but I need to channel my inner Spock!

In the meantime, Warren says stocks outperform other investments over time! Duh.

Toiling away

2:00pm CST - Not making much progress on my next and best system but it's not for lack of effort. Trying to learn Ninjascript better is causing some delays. It's good (I think) that I'm an optimist because every time I go to backtest what I think will be a great strategy, it proves otherwise. It's enough to demoralize some! But my next system idea is already churning in my head and looks promising just scrolling through the charts. Now to just collect some hard data for each signal and analyze the results. Fingers crossed, rinse and repeat as needed...

For the rest of my trading career

1:50pm CST - Frustrating day again. The kicker was a short 4-lot CL trade I sat on for nearly an hour at 100.90 that I got stopped out at BE only to see it fall to 100.30 within a half hour (my target was 100.50).

The latter half of 2011 and this year I have been trading a mix of systems with a bit of discretion on which signals to take and exactly where to exit, stop for the day, etc. No more! I will not take another trade, FOR THE REST OF MY TRADING CAREER, that isn’t completely and precisely defined with an exact entry signal along with risk and trade management parameters. If it can’t be mechanically traded by a brainless monkey (aka: me), there will be no trade!

Back at it soon...

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$510(14), CL -$461(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	-971
Wins:	0
Losses:	8
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-121

Mon. 2/13

1:25pm CST - Got the move I was looking for but not until the last 15 min. of the day when I was done. And what happened to Crude Oil this afternoon? Halted at CME? At least I wasn't trading that. Feels like Friday the 13th.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-1133
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	240
Avg$Loss:	-686

Fri. 2/10

1:35pm CST - Tough day to trade beans. Had a couple opportunities to take 2-3 cents profit but was holding for bigger gains. Not the day to do that it turns out except for the last trade which would have gotten me back to black if I had held. For the week, net gain of $176.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	34
Net $P/L:	-1263
Wins:	2
Losses:	8
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	232
Avg$Loss:	-216

Thurs. 2/09

11:35am CST - One and done in 4 mins. today. I really have to work on holding these longer. The opportunity cost is killing me.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	579
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	579
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 2/08

11:35am CST - The less than 5 cent range in opening half hour had me thinking it would be a dull day. That explains the early exit on last trade which I should have squeezed at least another cent out (or 8). Crossed back to positive side on the year.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	359
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	379
Avg$Loss:	-10

Tues. 2/07

1:25pm CST - Tough 6.5 cent range in beans today so I can't complain with $211.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	211
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	210
Avg$Loss:	-208

Mon. 2/06

1:40pm CST - I'm still here. Took some time off last week and nearly forgot how to click the mouse this morning. I meant to click in a couple 2-lots but managed only a couple 1-lots on this trade.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	290
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	290
Avg$Loss:	0