3:40pm CST - No trades yesterday, did more manual backtesting. For past 10 trading days, if every trade taken and executed error-free with no slippage, there were 225 trades, 54.2% winners, R:R 1:1, gross ticks profit 2428, and biggest drawdown 450 ticks. After commission this is ~8 or 9 ticks per trade average. Seems too good to be true and normally when I backtest ideas for much great time periods, the numbers don't hold up and you are lucky to get an average profit of 2-3 ticks/trade. We will see.
Hypothetically, each day gross was: +103, +9, +102, +594, +1145, -120, -16, +267, +181, +163
Of course my real trades this period (101 total) were less than half the available ones and with mistakes, slippage, commissions, etc., I netted 3.7 ticks/trade. Still not bad if repeatable...
| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| MNQ Contracts: | 12 |
| Net $P/L: | +140 |
| Wins: | 9 |
| Losses: | 3 |
| Win%: | 75 |
| Avg$Win: | 21 |
| Avg$Loss: | -15 |
Posts
Sorry, but I don't see any edge.
ReplyDeleteDo you think there are dozens of opportunities to take advantage every day?
I only did one trade today. I could do more trades because there were opportunities, but my priorities today were different than watching the charts.
I carefully select trades with the highest probability of success. I haven't had a losing trade yet this year.
My trades have the potential of over 100 or 200 ticks.
After opening a trade, something has to happen to make money. What is it and why do you think it will happen?
Maybe it's time to count less and ask the right questions more.
I keep my fingers crossed...
Congrats on never losing so far 2021. Would love to see your trades on a blog!
DeleteYour trading is obviously very different than mine is currently. The edge or positive expectancy is present in the limited data accumulated so far. Not sure why you can't see any? I realize however, any edge may disappear or change with more data.