2011 Trade Analysis

You can't manage what you can't measure. Too bad you can't measure the mental side of this business. That's where we all need the most help, typically! But we can measure nearly everything else and the end of the year is a good time to do just that, not to dwell on the past or curse its results, but to reflect and add some objective insight into what worked and what didn't. Then file it in the memory banks, and move forward!

The goal for the year was a 100% return. Far from that, I achieved a loss of -28% or -$22,209. With futures being a zero-sum game, you could conclude that I had a lot more money taken from me by other traders than I took from them. But you would be wrong. I actually grossed +$4,880 on the year, not that there is any silver lining in that! But commissions (Clearing, NFA, & broker's commissions combined) accounted for the loss on the year.

Looking more closely at the numbers below, I found it interesting that ZS was my biggest loss of 2011 and my biggest gain of 2010. Trading my ZS system in March this year was by far the biggest reason for this year's negative result. I lost over $18k trading soybeans in that one month alone.

A few more self explanatory charts below. Most interesting is the last one which shows that trades that were in the market less than 3.75 minutes generally lost money while those that lasted longer contributed to a positive P/L curve. Last year 2.75 minutes seemed to be the turning point.

There wasn't much consistency in 2011 mostly because I jumped around from system to system with some discretionary trading also in the mix. I couldn't get anything to work for any extended length of time. Who knows what 2012 will bring but I will be hard at it and will be repeating the same goal of a 100% return.

Quarter 4 2011 Trading Results

And a look at the entire year of 2011:

December Trading Summary

RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
CL Contracts:	470
Net $P/L:	-957
Wins:	74
Losses:	84
Win%:	47
$Commissions:	2087
Avg$Win:	352
Avg$Loss:	-322

Fri. 12/30

11:30am CST - A couple more 1-lot trades to wrap up the year. Look for year-end wrap tomorrow.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	291
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	145
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 12/29

11:00am CST - A couple 1-lot trades to test out a new system which is a complete change to how I've been trading this year. We'll see how it pans out after more backtesting.

Regarding 2012, "It's not where I've been or what I've done that matters most. My future success is based on the goals I choose now. My determination to reach them and the next steps I take. My incredible future starts today and I can't wait to make it happen!" Shad Helmstetter

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	451
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	225
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 12/22

9:35am CST - Up $600 on first trade, then a slow bleed until I threw in the towel on the day, week, and likely the year. For the week, net loss of -$2233.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	24
Net $P/L:	-1157
Wins:	1
Losses:	7
Win%:	13
Avg$Win:	587
Avg$Loss:	-249

Wed. 12/21

9:05am CST - Chopped to death.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	27
Net $P/L:	-2280
Wins:	1
Losses:	8
Win%:	11
Avg$Win:	347
Avg$Loss:	-328

Tues. 12/20

8:45am CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	1010
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	337
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 12/19

9:50am CST - Just trading the first couple hours, likely for remainder of year.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	193
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	362
Avg$Loss:	-177

Short Videos

Some good free stuff on the web. I don't endorse these sites but found some value in their mini webinars.

From Emini-Watch:
Day 1: Target a small daily profit … Stop over-trading
Day 2: Use fewer price indicators … Stop using multiple correlated indicators
Day 3: Focus on less … Stop information overload
Day 4: Give your trades room to work … Stop using tight stops
Day 5: Use a higher timeframe to determine trend … Stop using just one timeframe
Day 6: Do what other people can’t … Stop thinking like the crowd
Day 7: Think in terms of cyclical & trending phases … Stop expecting a trend move
Day 8: Enter on a test of the trend … Stop chasing or fighting the trend
Day 9: Track your mistakes … Stop repeating common errors
Day 10: Invest in your trading … Stop doing things on the cheap

From Top Dog Trading:
Video for Lesson 1
Video for Lesson 2
Video for Lesson 3
Video for Lesson 4
Video for Lesson 5

Fri. 12/16

2:10pm CST - I felt like Homer Simpson today. More work to do as usual. There's a fuzzy line between giving trades a tight leash vs. giving them too much room. I've crossed that line a million times. If it weren't so fuzzy I would know which side to stay on. For the week, net loss -$898.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	47
Net $P/L:	-999
Wins:	7
Losses:	10
Win%:	41
Avg$Win:	181
Avg$Loss:	-226

Thurs. 12/15

10:05am CST - One step forward...

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	27
Net $P/L:	940
Wins:	5
Losses:	4
Win%:	56
Avg$Win:	427
Avg$Loss:	-298

Wed. 12/14

2:00pm CST - Two steps back again. I'm getting good at that. Holding today, like yesterday, was the way to go (in hindsight). CL closed down over $5 and over 5%.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	66
Net $P/L:	-2683
Wins:	6
Losses:	16
Win%:	27
Avg$Win:	388
Avg$Loss:	-313

Tues. 12/13

9:55am CST - Days like today make you question whether taking little nibbles of profits is the best approach. Some gurus tout holding for big gains. But I know from years of backtesting that most of the time, hitting singles is the way to go. Sure my first trade today which I got out at BE could have easily made $6000+ with a risk of only $500 but that is the beauty of hindsight. What caused the $1.50+ up move in crude in less than a minute is beyond me and can’t be predicted. Anyways, enough coin for today for me.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	1077
Wins:	5
Losses:	2
Win%:	71
Avg$Win:	311
Avg$Loss:	-238

Mon. 12/12

2:15pm CST - Tweaked the method a bit over weekend. Good first day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	39
Net $P/L:	767
Wins:	6
Losses:	7
Win%:	46
Avg$Win:	370
Avg$Loss:	-208

Fri. 12/09

1:40pm CST - Mistakes made but broke even at least. For the week, net loss -$86.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	39
Net $P/L:	17
Wins:	4
Losses:	7
Win%:	36
Avg$Win:	459
Avg$Loss:	-260

Thurs. 12/08

1:25pm CST - The epitome of an up and down day. That last trade had an equal chance of going up and I gave it lots of room to run or stop, knowing it would be my last trade, and it chose to stop.

"Finish each day and be done with it. You have done what you could. Some blunders and absurdities have crept in; forget them as soon as you can. Tomorrow is a new day. You shall begin it serenely and with too high a spirit to be encumbered with your old nonsense."
-Ralph Waldo Emerson

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	42
Net $P/L:	-2036
Wins:	6
Losses:	7
Win%:	46
Avg$Win:	507
Avg$Loss:	-725

Wed. 12/07

1:00pm CST - Lots of trades today but ended up okay. No excuse for last trade.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	33
Net $P/L:	783
Wins:	7
Losses:	4
Win%:	64
Avg$Win:	295
Avg$Loss:	-321

Tues. 12/06

11:10am CST - Two and done today. Much better than yesterday.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	1113
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	557
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 12/05

1:55pm CST - Got off to a bad start but battled back to even.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	30
Net $P/L:	37
Wins:	5
Losses:	5
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	357
Avg$Loss:	-349

Fri. 12/02

1:15pm CST - Slow afternoon but a decent start to the month. For the week, net loss -$1085.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	23
Net $P/L:	938
Wins:	6
Losses:	2
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	277
Avg$Loss:	-363

Thurs. 12/01

2:25pm CST - I'll take it. Left too much on table however.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	580
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	414
Avg$Loss:	-538