Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Christmas Eve Eve

3:10pm CST - Just 1 trade that went no where today. Merry Christmas to all! Back on Monday...

Net breakdown: ZS $7
RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:1
Net $P/L:7
Wins:1
Losses:0
Win%:100
Avg$Win:7
Avg$Loss:0
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3 comments:

  1. AnonymousDecember 27, 2009 at 8:21 AM

    Hey, long time reader posting again. I posted as an anon a while ago wishing you luck, but encouraged a break. I've been at this game for 5 years now and I can relate to your struggle.

    I don't think it's reasonable for you to think you can just magically hold-on longer for profits and let the profits run unless you have some solid reason based on fundamentals that suggests the price will continue to move, or that you sense that volatility has picked up and volume is going in your favor. Looking at the tape is going to be tricky, because there's an ebb and flow to the time & sales tape -- you may be able to only sense the speed for a short interval, and that's what's going to guide your profit taking.

    If you're doing a short term technical trade, there's going to be a conditional expectation that governs the sort of profit you can extract from a trade. I think you'd be better served defining a strict loss threshold (for each volatility regime) for each of the contracts you trade and then perhaps try to figure out what sort of expectation there is on your winners to offset those losers.

    This is a numbers game, and your current crop of Avg$Win and Avg$Loss numbers just don't make any sense, nor do they look as if they're coming from any sort of intelligent system. As a first goal, focus on getting that Avg$Loss number down, and be realistic about execution quality.

    In fact, you should make your New Year's resolution to get those losses in line. Practice losing correctly for now.

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  2. AnonymousDecember 27, 2009 at 8:31 AM

    Oh, and one other thing: you should track your average loss over time with a plot like you've been doing your equity curve. This will help analyze your performance.

    ReplyDelete
  3. MBAGearheadDecember 28, 2009 at 2:55 PM

    Thanks for comment TuxedoCat! I agree I can't just hold winners longer for the sake of collecting more profit. I need a reason and the charts, price patterns, or some indicator will be my cue when to get out. I'm still working on things obviously and hope 2010 is the year things sync again! Not sure I agree with getting Avg$Loss numbers down. That really means tighter stops which isn't necessarily the best for results.

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