| RESULTS FOR DAY | |
|---|---|
| Contracts: | 4 |
| Net $P/L: | 114 |
| Wins: | 2 |
| Losses: | 1 |
| Win%: | 67 |
| Avg$Win: | 108 |
| Avg$Loss: | -103 |
20 hours ago
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Doh!
3:00pm CDT - Off to a bad, undisciplined start, and tried to buy the 7:30am CDT morning news release (which looked bullish and initially reacted bullish). Long at 936.25 (U contract) and stopped out 2 pts. lower. This was not an official signal in my system and is a trade I should not have made. So what do I do later in day? I make another trade (not in my system) and scalp back a point! Still down 1 pt. + commissions, I decide to show a wee bit of discipline and wait for an official signal and trade a 2 lot taking 1 off after 1.25 point and following my system on the other. That worked but all in all, I should have made 1 trade today with 1 contract and gotten 2.25 pts. That was the end net result but not happy how I got there.
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How are you going to make a living?, Just by scalping 1-2 signals in 6 hrs. I bet it is very boring and interfering with your discipline.
ReplyDeleteAnon, thanks for being concerned about my ability to make a living. I will GLADLY take 1 or 2 signals a day for the rest of my trading days if I can consistently make money. Once I have consistency, trading 10, 20, 50 lots or more are viable options.
ReplyDeleteBravo, MGH :-)
ReplyDeleteHi MBA,
ReplyDeleteI`m kind of agree with Anon. The problem is that when you have smaller samples you have low statistical power, and a higher chance of failing to reject the null hypothesis (equal group means on your outcome variables). If you increase number of lots it will not increase your statistical power. Lets say you will take
12 trades per week. Then you will need 10 weeks just to take 100 trades. Market`s conditions may change during that period and you will have a problem to evaluate your system. It may take years to evaluate your system in all possible market conditions. Did you try to trade 3 min charts?-it should work as well as 5 min but it gives you more signals; or tick, volume, or range charts?
TraderB52
TB52, for now I've only looked at 5 min. charts. But I hear you regarding statistically relevant sample size. I'm fully aware of it but there is also a benefit to few trades per day. I can argue that my system is more likely to survive a change in market conditions because it trades infrequently. If a significant drawdown is to occur, it may take months vs. days on a system that takes 100 trades a day. Then again maybe a quick death is better than a slow painful one! LOL But longevity is the name of the game in this business, imho. Time will tell...
ReplyDeleteThe more likely scenario is that I will incorporate other setups/signals into my system or will start trading my current method on other markets to diversify and smooth out the equity curve.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI wish you luck.
Do you use some kind of automated trading system?
TraderB52
No automation, just me clicking the mouse! I could see myself automating someday - but only after a couple years of consistent, proven performance.
ReplyDelete