February Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ES -$3580(79), 6E $1445(4) CL -$173(6)

RESULTS FOR FEBRUARY
Contracts:	89
Net $P/L:	-2308
Wins:	32
Losses:	19
Win%:	63
$Commissions:	258
Avg$Win:	217
Avg$Loss:	-487

Mon. 2/29

2:53pm CST - Good end to the month but wish I had held a couple trades longer and not passed on a short signal around 1:30pm.  I feel good heading into the rest of the year and am enjoying trading ES again. YTD net -3.3%

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	514
Wins:	5
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	103
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 2/26

2:40pm CST - Short week for me but good way to end it.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	304
Wins:	6
Losses:	2
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	107
Avg$Loss:	-115

Thurs. 2/25

4:45pm CST - Finally had a chance to trade after a break and this one went nowhere but at least I bailed at the right time.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	20
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	20
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 2/12

2:45pm CST - Another good testing day.  I'll be unavailable to trade most of next couple weeks so hope to backtest those days with some good results upon return.  For the week, net +$832. YTD -6.5%.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	302
Wins:	4
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	75
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 2/11

2:50pm CST - No trades yesterday and tested yet another ES idea today, this time with 1-lots.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	304
Wins:	6
Losses:	2
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	85
Avg$Loss:	-103

In other news, this will make you laugh. And is a good statistics reminder that no matter what your winning percentage, multiple losers can and will happen in a row.

Tues. 2/09

3:10pm CST - Tested a new scaling in, all out method in ES.  Euro system minimized the damage.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $842(2), ES -$1219(12)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	14
Net $P/L:	-378
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	1017
Avg$Loss:	-804

Mon. 2/08

2:10pm CST - A Euro system trade today. I was sure this one was going to start the week on a dire note as it went -$775 against me before it went my way and I exited at the close.

RESULTS FOR DAY
6E Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	604
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	604
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 2/05

1:10pm CST - Not the day to add something new.  This week officially has me in a funk.  My ES System worked great last week. This week, just the opposite.  It was one of those weeks where the exact opposite of all my trades would have been net wildly successful.  As you've noticed, I've been trading with some pretty big stops and generally going for 1:1 RR.  But am I patient enough for this?  Do I have an edge? Today says no.  I'm trying to play the long game, focusing more on monthly results and being content if 5 days a month are what makes the month green and the other days just cancel each other out.  Likely will change things up again. We'll see.  For the week net -$4087. YTD -9.4%

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$173(6), ES -$1213(13)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	19
Net $P/L:	-1386
Wins:	5
Losses:	7
Win%:	42
Avg$Win:	153
Avg$Loss:	-307

Thurs. 2/04

3:05pm CST - Another winning signal to short a low tick. Grrr.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	-1677
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-838

Wed. 2/03

2:40pm CST - Not sure what caused all this movement today but glad to get a tiny chunk.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	741
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	741
Avg$Loss:	0

In other news, this is a good read on HFT and expert Eric Scott Hunsader.

Tues. 2/02

2:50pm CST - I did it again, shorted a swing low!  A bid of 5400 contracts on 2nd short just above my target had me a little worried but generally, size likes to trade and it eventually did.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	20
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	816
Avg$Loss:	-796

Mon. 2/01

2:55pm CST - Never good when you short at the low tick of a swing on a failed breakdown.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	-1782
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-891

January Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ES $3075(89), NQ -$580(13) CL -$534(9), 6E -$622(5)

RESULTS FOR JANUARY
Contracts:	116
Net $P/L:	1339
Wins:	27
Losses:	24
Win%:	53
$Commissions:	366
Avg$Win:	411
Avg$Loss:	-407

Fri. 1/29

12:55pm CST - Good end to the month but I messed up a tiny bit on exit after watching the trade go no where for so long I bailed a point earlier than plan. And then of course it goes a mile more than that! Oh well.  For the week +$3315 net. YTD +4.6%.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	666
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	666
Avg$Loss:	0

In other news, there are so many things wrong with this story I had to post it.  Like does Fortune or Reuters have a clue what HFT is?  I guess headlines grab readers.  The whole story is really just an ad for Quantopian or Cloud9Trader, neither of which I had heard of so I guess the story succeeded in that regard.

Thurs. 1/28

3:10pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	854
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	854
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 1/27

2:45pm CST - FOMC day always adds some movement. Had a few signals after announcement two of which worked beautifully but I had already had my daily fill so I sat on my hands as per plan.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	741
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	741
Avg$Loss:	0

In other news, most all of these quotes will likely speak to you as well as they did me! (Source: tradeciety.com)
Jesse Livermore talks a lot about the importance of respecting your rules and learning from failures:
1 – What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game. …there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.
2 – The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street among the professionals who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for a regular wage.
3 – It never was my thinking that made me the big money for me. It always was my sitting.
4 – It is almost as important to know what not to do as to know what should be done.
5 – A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game. That’s why I don’t believe in tips.
6 – Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game.
7 – Courage in a speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of his mind.
8 – A man can excuse his mistakes only by capitalizing them to his subsequent profit.
9 – The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare the rod while teaching.
10 – If I hadn’t made money some of the time I might have acquired market wisdom quicker.
11 – I had been studying trying to locate the exact trouble with my system that had been responsible for my defeat.
12 – There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win.
13 – A man will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.
14 – I was convinced whatever was wrong was wrong with me and not with the market.
15 – I never argue with the tape. Getting sore at the market does not get you anywhere.
16 – A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss, that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
17 – Stocks are never too high to buy or too low to sell.
18 – One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These are the two most expensive eighths in the world.
19 – Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss must develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

Tues. 1/26

3:35pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	265
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	739
Avg$Loss:	-474

Mon. 1/25

1:55pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	788
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	788
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 1/22

12:45pm CST - For the week, net +$2194.  YTD -7%.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	629
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	629
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 1/21

2:40pm CST - A couple Euro system trades today. The new "half-ticks" don't seem to be a problem for my execution.  And as usual, lots of movement in the indexes.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $637(3), ES $460(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	1097
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	366
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 1/20

1:05pm CST - Thanks for comments on last post. I appreciate them all. Thought I'd touch on some of them here.  First, I realize many readers often wonder if I have a method to my madness.  Generally I hate to write much (not good for a blogger) and some of my entries/exits may appear random unless you are in my head. Sure I'm human and occasionally go "off plan" but for the most part there's a reason for every single trade.

As for why I didn't stick to my CL method that seemed to pull $300 out of market most days for a nice stretch there? Simple, it was not sustainable based on further backtesting and actual results toward the end of that run that made me question things more.

Did I jump into ES with bigger size without a system or reasoning as one commenter suggests?  Of course not.  But readers can think anything they would like, or not read at all for that matter.  It's a free country! :)  This blog has never been about sharing system details and rationale for every trade. If it was, it would have burned me out and this blog would have folded up shop years ago.

Latest ES method which I started trading today is a tweak of what I was doing the past couple weeks and looks to take just a trade or two a day.  I still want to backtest further back but it should allow me to pull 6-7 pts. out of the market each week per contract based on data so far.  Hope to improve that but that will be more than adequate if it can be produced consistently.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	468
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	468
Avg$Loss:	0

In other news, 37% of forex traders were profitable in Q4.

Fri. 1/15

10:15am CST - Well I gave it a shot, coming out swinging in the new year and trading some bigger size on a mostly mechanical ES system. Followed the plan pretty well until the 2nd and 3rd trades today when revenge crept in.  In hindsight I should not have mixed larger size with the extreme volatility we've had this year. Or had a better plan to deal with it! 4 point fixed stops in ES are just not enough right now.  This continues to be a game of inches, or thousandths of an inch. There are so many times, like my 1st trade today when a single tick would have made all the difference. Any edge anybody may proclaim to have is razor thin which is part of the challenge.  I'll have some time over the long weekend to reflect on things and figure out the plan ahead. For the week, net -$2945. YTD down 14%.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-2239
Wins:	0
Losses:	3
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-746

Thurs. 1/14

1:30pm CST - Gave back 2 days of gains.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $9(3), ES -$1721(14)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	-1712
Wins:	3
Losses:	6
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	135
Avg$Loss:	-353

Wed. 1/13

2:45pm CST - Tons of opportunity everywhere yet again.  Still hard to be happy hitting singles when I see grand-slams all over the place when reviewing charts after the fact.  My early 4-lot ES short could have earned an extra $10k+ if held into the mid-afternoon lows.  But obviously 60 pt. days in ES are not the norm so one must be content following the plan.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL $102(2), ES $930(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	1033
Wins:	5
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	207
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 1/12

2:50pm CST - Tons of opportunity today everywhere!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	787
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	787
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 1/11

2:10pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	-813
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-813

Week of 1/04 - 1/08

3:00pm CST - Thought I'd try posting at the end of the week just to shake things up a bit.  I'll likely resume posting daily.  The trade plan is still in a state of flux and I'm still wrestling with the best way for me to make some gains this year.  I'd like ES to get back into the mix due to its scale-ability so I started live testing in that this week.  Mon. and Tues. didn't go so well. Stopped by 2 ticks, then 4 ticks on 4-lots before price hit targets without me.

Wed. and Thurs. were positive but gave some back with CL and NQ.  I like the granularity of NQ but quickly remembered how fast it can rip up or down 20+ ticks in the blink of an eye.  Guess I picked one of the most volatile days on Thurs. to test trading in that symbol. We'll see if I give it another chance.

Friday went well if you exclude the 6E system trade (no chart) that shorted 2-lot after the Jobs Report and price rallied to take me out at a full stop loss. That hurt.  A reminder that starting next week, 6E futures go to half-ticks (like the 6J did last year). This will equate to current depth of market at any given price being cut in half so I would expect more slippage. Not sure what this will do to my 6E system.

For the week, each day was: -$811, -$811, +$335, +282, -$221 = net loss -$1226.  Would have been a BE week if not for 6E trade.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
CL -$645(4), ES $1258(22), NQ -$580(13), 6E -$1259(2)

RESULTS FOR WEEK
Contracts:	41
Net $P/L:	-1226
Wins:	8
Losses:	13
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	363
Avg$Loss:	-318

I've updated my $Range spreadsheet to see how the same 2-hour time period has changed in 2015. Click here if you want the Excel file with all the data. Most interesting was how 2015 compares to the 1st week this year with the crazy volatility! NQ and ES were equal to CL!

2015 Trade Analysis

It was a mostly up year but there were a couple sizable drawdowns, the last of which I'm still in the middle of.  Overall my accounts gained net +$5,701 or +24% of my trading equity at the start of the year.  Nothing to write home about but percentage-wise, better than most hedge funds and better than the stock indexes this year.

The data:

My biggest success was system trading 6E but it's good to know I had some slight success discretionary trading CL.  I'll have to think more in days and weeks ahead to finalize a plan for 2016.  Stay tuned and Happy New Year!

Quarter 4 2015 Trading Results