Quarter 1 2013 Trading Results

March Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$6456(195), ES $7(2), NQ -$73(5)

RESULTS FOR MARCH
Contracts:	202
Net $P/L:	-6522
Wins:	24
Losses:	42
Win%:	36
$Commissions:	1025
Avg$Win:	442
Avg$Loss:	-408

Thurs. 3/28

2:05pm CDT - "Like a moth to the flame" describes my day. I hadn't planned to trade and was busy backtesting when the grains all shot straight down after the USDA's Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings news came out that farmers will plant the most corn since 1936. I wish I had remembered this report was on the calendar. It took a minute to fire up my platform and I immediately entered short TWICE before I figured out I still had my automatic stop set just 2 cents from entry.  I was stopped out nearly instantly. I had planned to hold for a bit knowing the potential was there for much lower with Corn at limit down in just 2 min., over 7% on the day.  My third entry (with stop safely out of the noise) was up nearly $1000 but a trailed stop too tight took me out ending with today's take after a couple later trades cancelled each other out.  My original 2-lot short went $3000 lower and I'd like to think I would have captured a nice chunk of that.  C'est la vie!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	184
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	311
Avg$Loss:	-146

Mon. 3/25

2:10pm CDT - All ZS1 trades again. This drawdown is getting tiresome.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-1187
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	210
Avg$Loss:	-698

Fri. 3/22

1:50pm CDT - Again only traded ZS1 system today and 2 losers today.  At least I had no execution errors today!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	-1771
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-886

Thurs. 3/21

2:30pm CDT - For a green day, this was as messed up as it gets. Only traded ZS1 signals today but the first one was technically a no go as my indicator changed to invalidate the short entry just as my order hit.  I really should just get in habit of setting all my indicators with a displacement of +1 to avoid this problem.  Then I missed out on a huge winner as described in chart.  Stop limit orders generally work great in ZS to avoid slippage but this one hurt.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	545
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	1619
Avg$Loss:	-358

Wed. 3/20

3:00pm CDT - Testing out a discretionary method in NQ today.  Had two ZS1 signals but missed the first one which was the only winner.  Funny how that always works that way!

3:15pm EDIT - In more "funny how that works" news, NQ fell briskly after 3pm and settled at 2787.
Net breakdown (contracts traded): ZS -$690(3), NQ -$73(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	-764
Wins:	1
Losses:	4
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	155
Avg$Loss:	-230

Tues. 3/19

2:05pm CDT - 2 ZS1 trades is all I took today.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	704
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	1319
Avg$Loss:	-615

Mon. 3/18

2:30pm CDT - No system trades today but did some testing of a discretionary approach with 1 lots. It didn't go so well.  I did have any early short order at 14.11 but didn't get filled.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	-476
Wins:	0
Losses:	5
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-95

Fri. 3/15

1:40pm CDT - No ZS1 signals today and both systems have been drawing down this month.  In fact, I am now back to even on the year which is not where I wanted to be 2.5 months in!  ZS3 testing hasn't yielded much of promise yet so not sure where that will lead me.  I am likely going to curtail most trading next week to focus on and develop the plan going forward.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-962
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	135
Avg$Loss:	-366

Thurs. 3/14

2:15pm CDT - Happy Pi Day! I need some pie after today but at least I finished strong with final 3 trades as winners.  ZS1 system was the big loser today.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	-858
Wins:	3
Losses:	3
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	247
Avg$Loss:	-533

Wed. 3/13

2:05pm CDT - Slippage and partial fills made for an interesting day but at least it was green for a change.  Congrats to the new pope!  I hope he's more open-minded than the past one.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	17
Net $P/L:	850
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	519
Avg$Loss:	-353

Tues. 3/12

2:10pm CDT - Beans were pretty muted today and I had to check if I had an Internet connection a few times this afternoon as the DOM was dead. Once again, a good trade (ZS2), followed by a loser on ZS1 that suckered me into buying a false breakout.  I actually missed a good 2 cent winner at lunchtime due to being in the kitchen.  I'm ready for the luck of the Irish to find me! Everybody's Irish this week right?

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	-106
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	435
Avg$Loss:	-541

Mon. 3/11

2:40pm CDT - Like Friday, nice winner to start off then downhill from there.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	-993
Wins:	1
Losses:	4
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	585
Avg$Loss:	-394

Fri. 3/08

2:25pm CST - Very disappointed with myself today. ZS1 system does not pay attention to news reports and I choose to not enter a short position just after the crop report was released even though I had a signal. Second guessing and scared money cost me over a grand.  Looking back at the days I was out, ZS1 would have produced a grand on Monday as well.  For the week, net loss -$1687.  Always room for improvement...  ZS3 system testing is on the docket for the week ahead.  It may be replacing ZS2 as I am finding it difficult to trade ZS1 and ZS2 concurrently much of the time due to conflicting signals.  ZS1 and ZS3 would not conflict as often.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$633(21), ES $7(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	22
Net $P/L:	-626
Wins:	4
Losses:	3
Win%:	57
Avg$Win:	281
Avg$Loss:	-583

Thurs. 3/07

2:15pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	794
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	397
Avg$Loss:	0

Good and bad news from CME Group on the grain futures.  There will be a 45-min. halt just prior to floor trading open and the close will be 45-min. earlier.  This reverts the hours back to nearly what they used to be a year ago when they switched to compete with ICE.  Good news is that I'll have a shorter day! Bad news is there's a big unknown as to what affect this will have on my ZS systems. I'm guessing the impact will be minimal but it is an unknown nevertheless.

Wed. 3/06

2:20pm CST - The market had some nice moves but other than the first trade and almost the last trade (both ZS1), my systems did a poor job.  Had lots of slippage today too!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	-1605
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	360
Avg$Loss:	-775

Tues. 3/05

2:25pm CST - I'm back after a short break.  The market welcomes me with a red day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-249
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	585
Avg$Loss:	-278

February Trading Summary

RESULTS FOR FEBRUARY
ZS Contracts:	90
Net $P/L:	3061
Wins:	16
Losses:	20
Win%:	44
$Commissions:	464
Avg$Win:	530
Avg$Loss:	-271

Body Destruction

No trades today and likely none until next week for me.  In the meantime, enjoy this article about how we are all going to die prematurely!!  Or perhaps I will live forever as really only 4 or 5 of the 18 factors apply to me.  For sure 1, 2, and 9 (sitting all day, slouching, endless computer staring).  But 11 (boredom) only sometimes and 12 (dirty keyboard) doesn't really count if they are all my germs does it?

Tues. 2/26

2:15pm CST - ZS remains very spurty with periods of no tape movement and zero volume then surges of orders spiking things around for a bit.  But both systems eeked out wins with 2 ZS2 trades and 1 ZS1.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	769
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	515
Avg$Loss:	-260

Mon. 2/25

2:45pm CST - ZS2 draws down today. The first trade was the only good one on the day, then chop...

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	-327
Wins:	1
Losses:	4
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	365
Avg$Loss:	-173

Fri. 2/22

2:00pm CST - I guess ZS1 system is taking a long weekend.  No signals there again today.  ZS2 did marginally okay with my poor execution of exits but had potential to do amazing.  There is some discretion involved with this new system, mostly on the exits, so I am bound to be critical of my performance going forward.  For the week, net gain +$1691.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	209
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	227
Avg$Loss:	-123

This news of a trader tax from Europe is concerning. I don't know if it will really happen but if it does, I can't imagine it not affecting USA traders because there will be less volume and liquidity in the markets. "A trade of a derivative would face a tax of one-hundredth of 1 percent. But that tax would be applied to the notional value, which can be very large relative to the cost of the derivative." This means a trade of 1 contract of ES would have a tax of $7.50 (per side or round-trip I'm not sure?). NQ would be $5.40, ZS $7.30! It's hard enough to cover commissions. This tax would change the game entirely.

Thurs. 2/21

2:00pm CST - Spurty jerky rollover day in beans. Traded new ZS system today, we'll call it ZS2, that I have been working on.  No signals in original ZS system, we'll call that ZS1 going forward.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	204
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	215
Avg$Loss:	-10

Wed. 2/20

2:45pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	509
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	397
Avg$Loss:	-285

Tues. 2/19

2:05pm CST - 30 cent move up in pit session ($1500/contract) in ZS today thanks to Argentina drought reports and news they are delaying export sales because of expectations the peso will further depreciate against the dollar.  The world is all interconnected isn't it?

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	769
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	1029
Avg$Loss:	-260

In more Debbie Downer news on our occupation, "If you look around the poker table and you don’t know who the sucker is, you’re the sucker. Wall Street knows who the suckers are: naïve, at-home day traders."  I don't know about you, but these "news reports" just motivate me more!

Next

No trades today but finished backtesting a new ZS system.  I was very optimistic (the curse of being an optimist) initially.  But then, not so much.  The chart on left is past 1.5 months and on right is about 6 months.  For anyone who thinks 100 trades is plenty enough to look at to determine if a strategy is worthy of trading, think again.  This happens all the time...

On to the next system!

Is Daytrading going mainstream?  There's a board game in development apparently. It doesn't have much to do with actual trading it seems to me but the name caught my eye.

Thurs. 2/14

2:15pm CST - As close as I can get to turning a +$400 day into a loser.  Happy Valentine's Day Mr. Market - love you too!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	-556
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-278

Wed. 2/13

2:00pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	769
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	1229
Avg$Loss:	-460

Tues. 2/12

2:00pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	519
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	779
Avg$Loss:	-260

FCMs face tough times?  Until FCMs share all of their financial details (income statements, balance sheets, etc.), I have a hard time sympathizing.  And I'm talking a lot more than what's available at CFTC.