January Trading Summary

RESULTS FOR JANUARY
Contracts:	199
Net $P/L:	414
Wins:	82
Losses:	74
Win%:	53
Avg$Win:	108
Avg$Loss:	-114

An OK Friday

2:50pm CST - It's nice to have an OK Friday for a change. Nothing to write home about but today I was committed to closing out the week and the month on a positive note. As a result, I stopped trading my RLM system before I hit my daily circuit breaker. Oh well...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM $225(12), ZS $7(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	232
Wins:	5
Losses:	5
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	208
Avg$Loss:	-162

Good recovery this week...
Edit: Last trade didn't get graphed, add $95 to chart below! :)

Short day

3:00pm CST - Another short day, target hit on RLM (sort of). My rules are to stop when I hit plus or minus $500 and I was only at $490. But that is due to an execution error on the last 2 trades which cost me 5 ticks so I should have been over target. ZS was good again but as usual, lots of missed opportunity due to my early exit. Lots of buy signals in the afternoon too but I elected to pass.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM $490(7), ZS $65(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	554
Wins:	5
Losses:	1
Win%:	83
Avg$Win:	140
Avg$Loss:	-146

Fed Day

1:05pm CST - 2 earlier losers had be down $400 and discouraged but the next 4 trades were winners and put me over the daily trigger to stop trading. Last 2 trades shown below, most of which were filled with resting orders that triggered right as New Home Sales data hit the wires, hit both profit targets. Note the one made $300 in less than 0.07 seconds!

A couple beautiful swings in ZS today I elected to pass on. There will be more in future days. And FOMC news is out shortly - passing on that too as I have an appointment soon so will be away from screens.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM $705(12)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	705
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	279
Avg$Loss:	-206

System nuances

2:50pm CST - A couple execution errors(?) today cost me some Ben Franklins but that is part of this game we play. It seems OEC and eSignal sometimes print different highs and lows for a given bar on a chart! Shocking, yada, yada... So depending on what chart I'm watching I get different trigger signals on my RLM system causing mild confusion as to whether or not to take the signal! Just another variable to add to the hundreds we must deal with.

At least ZS went my way today:

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM -$312(18), ZS $315(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	3
Wins:	6
Losses:	5
Win%:	55
Avg$Win:	139
Avg$Loss:	-166

Mini-Russell

12:25pm CST - Traded a new system of mine today on the mini-Russell trading 2 lots with initial stop of 10 ticks and targets of 10 and 20 ticks. It includes stopping trading for day as soon as +/- $500 is gained/lost. Today I was up $300, then came 6 losers in a row. The next 3 trades (not taken), would have netted $300, -$140, $300 but that was not in the plan to continue.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM -$564(22)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	22
Net $P/L:	-564
Wins:	4
Losses:	8
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	112
Avg$Loss:	-127

9 in a row

10:55am CST - 9 in a row, LOSERS! So ends the week... At least I'm no longer doing "tricks of my past" where I would sometimes double my position size after each loss.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6B -$105(1), 6E -$377(3), RLM -$389(3), ZS -$235(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	-1105
Wins:	0
Losses:	9
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-123

P/L Curve for the week again had potential, until today.

2 Trades

2:40pm CST - 2 trades and content to sit and watch rest of day. Left 6+ cents on table again on ZS trade. Will I ever learn?

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM $307(1), ZS $45(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	352
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	176
Avg$Loss:	0

ZS Chop

2:50pm CST - Gave up $200 in end of day chop on ZS that I thought would breakout but didn't. Otherwise a good day.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6B $120(1), 6E $33(1), RLM $147(1), ZS -$190(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	110
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	80
Avg$Loss:	-105

Short day

2:30pm CST - Just traded the first hour and stopped to lock in the gain. No point in giving any back on first day of week. Left up to $500 on the table on the RLM trade though, so will have to sleep on that! I'd like to think I could have gotten some of that if I had held longer.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
RLM $197(1), ZS $190(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	387
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	129
Avg$Loss:	0

Bad week end

1:50pm CST - ZS was my nemesis today. I should have had a clue to quit trying to trade it after a few losses in a row and the obvious conclusion that it didn't want to run. RLM would have made my day/week if I hadn't set a 1.5 pt. target and let 'er run instead. I see DT233 had same observation!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6B -$142(1), 6E $73(3), RLM $147(1), ZS -$810(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-733
Wins:	5
Losses:	5
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	46
Avg$Loss:	-192

P/L Curve for the week had potential if I had stopped trading at $500. Last week I hit $400. Maybe there's something to be said for having a goal and stopping if you hit it, or maybe not...
Going to warmer weather this weekend and will be "off the grid" until Tues.!

Give and take

2:40pm CST - The market gave and took today (in my little world anyways). Ended above water which is always good. Held one ZS short for 5.5 cents so I'm making progress...

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $19(4), 6B -$61(1), RLM -$132(4), ZS $269(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	95
Wins:	5
Losses:	9
Win%:	36
Avg$Win:	161
Avg$Loss:	-79

Tough Day at Office

2:00pm CST - A tough day at the office, in part thanks to a broker quote outage that started at 10:17am and lasted more than an hour! I was in 6E and ZS positions at the time and not being able to see the charts caused stress if not a loss in profits? Who knows what I would have done had I seen the action. I also made a couple 2 lot trades today which were losses so that was not a good start to the day either.

Here's a couple of the winning ZS trades:

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6B $61(3), 6E -$94(4), RLM $47(1), ZS -$251(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	-237
Wins:	7
Losses:	4
Win%:	59
Avg$Win:	55
Avg$Loss:	-156

Chicken

1:15pm CST - 2 good days in a row. I could get used to this. But I continue to be upset with myself for not letting profits run further. This is such a huge struggle for me because 1) I'm chicken and/or 2) I've had years of scalping etched into my brain. That's one of the things I love about trading. There is ALWAYS room for improvement (in my case MUCH improvement)!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $240(2), ZS $95(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	335
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	112
Avg$Loss:	0

Corn was locked limit down today. I don't trade this but this is a good reminder of what can happen in some futures markets with extreme moves (happens mostly in the grains). Read contract specs at www.cmegroup.com for more info.

Daily Price Limits:

• Corn, $0.30 per bushel expandable to $0.45 and then to $0.70 when the market closes at limit bid or limit offer.
• Wheat, $0.60 per bushel expandable to $0.90 and then to $1.35 when the market closes at limit bid or limit offer.
• Soybeans, $0.70 per bushel expandable to $1.05 and then to $1.60 when the market closes at limit bid or limit offer.
• ES, RTH: Successive 10%, 20%, 30% limits (downside only), ETH (overnight): 5% up or down

If you were stuck long in Corn, this is the DOM you were staring at all day after the opening minute! Remember, in most limit down cases, there's another highly correlated market you can try to hedge your position with to limit some of the damage. (ie., hedge corn with wheat, hedge ES with YM, etc.)

Good start

2:30pm CST - Good start to the week.

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6B $136(3), 6E $33(1), ZS $102(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	271
Wins:	6
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	45
Avg$Loss:	0

Par for week

2:40pm CST - Overtraded again and resorted to scalping my way back to black for the week. My demons from 2009 have not been fully erased. But that is no surprise really. Below are the ugliest trades of day on the mini-Russell:

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6B -$100(8), 6E $54(7), 6J -$56(4), RLM -$309(3), ZS $152(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	24
Net $P/L:	-259
Wins:	13
Losses:	9
Win%:	59
Avg$Win:	45
Avg$Loss:	-94

For the week, this was the roller coaster ride below. I guess not losing money in the first week of the year is a tiny victory and step forward. But in hindsight, it wound have been nice to end the week after trade #10...

ZS

2:00pm CST - Easy day today with a couple wins and a breakeven trade at end of day. Wish I had traded the RLM(TF) today. Some nice moves and of note is that a 1 contract range in the opening half hour in ES was 5pts. ($250), whereas RLM was 9pts. ($900)!

The ZS winner today and missed short:

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6B $64(1), ZS $240(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	304
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	154
Avg$Loss:	-5

Losing Wed.

2:50pm CST - Frustrating 3rd day of the year. Overtraded and took some questionable setups.
I'll show ya 6 of the losers today:

Net breakdown: 6E -$339(3), 6J $66(2), RLM -$199(3), ZS $24(5)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	13
Net $P/L:	-448
Wins:	4
Losses:	9
Win%:	31
Avg$Win:	79
Avg$Loss:	-85

Admin Trader

2:30pm CST - Fun little 35 question test I found on Trader Gav's blog:

Thank you for taking the Tharp Trader Test!

You are an Administrative Trader
You tend to be practical, realistic, and decisive. You love facts and what you think is concrete. You are good at making sure that things run smoothly. As a result, you are good at organizing projects and people to get things done in the most efficient way possible.

One of Your Trading Strengths - You should have no problem staying with and executing a simple trading system that you feel confident about.

One of Your Trading Challenges - You love the details of trading system analysis and development, but your efforts can be misguided if you are following bad advice.

It seems spot on, so try it out and see what you think! Of course horoscopes are always spot on too!

Just a few trades today and mostly quit after $300. I nearly took some other trades but was content to call it a day. Biggest regret of "trades not taken" was not buying beans at 10.56 in final 15 min. Biggest regret of "trades taken" was the usual, not letting profits run - shorted beans just after open at 10.625 - could have had up to $400 more... But it is not good to have regrets so they are now forgotten!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$5(1), RLM $197(1), ZS $107(1)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	300
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	152
Avg$Loss:	-5

An OK start to 2010

2:30pm CST - Lots of breakouts today in the markets I was watching. Too bad I didn't catch most of them. Traded a bit tight today and didn't let winners run again. I really know that I need to start trading 2 lots so I can take 1 off where I normally do and let the other run or stop at breakeven or at a trailed stop. Very soon I will do this!

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$5(1), RLM -$106(2), ZS $222(3)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	111
Wins:	2
Losses:	4
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	145
Avg$Loss:	-45

Header Change

My old blog header (up top between the Bull and the Bear) since starting this blog read:

MBAGearhead ES Trading Journey
A daily chronicle of results of one ES trader (e-mini S&P 500 futures) trading my own accounts. I define myself as a day trader and scalp for a couple ticks to a few points most of the time. I am 100% in cash every night after 3:15pm CST.

The new header, beginning now will be:

MBAGearhead Trading Journey
A daily chronicle of results of one retail futures trader trading my own accounts. I define myself as a day trader and generally swing for at least a few points most of the time. But I do make the occasional scalp for ticks too.

2010 Initial Plans

Trading this year will produce positive results, or else!!! (I say "or else" jokingly.) I believe in positive thinking and know that I can be successful again at this gig. Why else would I be here? I am fortunate that I don't have to take X-dollars out of my account each month for living expenses as I have no debt and have meager rental income that helps pay the bills. I do have 2 futures accounts, a smaller taxed account that I have been trading in 2009, and a larger IRA account that I traded in 2007 and 2008 that I will resume trading once I have a positive sloping equity curve in the smaller account.

Plans for 2010 are general and subject to change but for starters:
1) I will trade less frequently and wait for higher probability trades
2) I will target greater than 1:1 Reward:Risk ratio

If I can be successful at those, the P/L will take care of itself. Either way, life will go on. And my wish is that we all keep things in proper perspective.

2009 Trade Analysis

It's good to analysis your trades in different ways to see what may be revealed. I do an end of day look at the fills on the charts but the end of the year gets a more thorough review. Being a whiz at Excel and data crunching helps.

As I mentioned back in my Nov. 23rd blog entry, I was going to find out what would happen when I expanded trading to other commodities besides the ES. Overall, it has been good "experience" I think even though the results don't show it. Net $P/L (net contracts traded) for the period since then was: Currencies -$927 (45), Crude -$1883 (150), Gold -$317 (22), ZS $332 (72), and mini-Russell $359 (16). If I had only traded ES since then would I have lost less or been positive? Who knows.

2009 was a negative year in the life of this retail trader. No desire to share the final figure since part of the year I was not in the blogosphere but every day since the start of blogging in April is well documented here. I made a total of 1,969 trades in 2009 (5,314 contracts traded roundtrip) and the P/L for each trade is shown below. Of obvious note is that my greatest single losers exceeded by greatest single winners by more than double!

I also plotted my trades against time of day. Maybe I trade better in the opening hour or worse over lunchtime? Not really, the chart below shows. Pre-open to around 9:40 CT, my net result for all trades in 2009 during that period was flat. Then a mostly linear trend down until around 2:30pm, followed by a slight uptrend? Could it be that I may be best at trading the final half hour? Or am I being fooled by randomness?

What about the length of time I held a position? For all 1,969 trades, I know the entry and exit times and P/L. Plotting this below was the most eye opening I think. After the first 2 minutes or so, the longer I held a trade, the more I was likely to lose a greater amount. When I exited within the first 36 seconds or so, I profited. And the period in between 36 sec. and 2 min. was generally breakeven. Keep in mind, I do not know what the trades that I held longer than 2 minutes would have looked like if I had exited them in the first half minute. Perhaps they were already losers by then? Who knows...

The below chart shows what my hold time was for all trades. Excluding 42 "outlier" trades (about 2% of total trades) that I held for more than an hour, my average hold time was around 5 minutes.

A final chart to share shows what many have been noticing all year long, my Reward:Risk ratio sucks! August was the only proper month. This must become the norm!

More later on 2010 plans...