November Trading Summary

RESULTS FOR NOVEMBER
Contracts:	123
Net $P/L:	-2075
Wins:	52
Losses:	54
Win%:	49
Avg$Win:	67
Avg$Loss:	-103

Pissed

2:15pm CST - Having regrets is not good but this one is going to stay with me for at least the rest of the day. I think I'm entitled...

After lots of homework and backtesting in the past few days, I decided I would start trading a new plan today with specific entry and exit rules and virtually no discretion involved. I say "virtually" because there will always be some scenario that I, and thus my rules, hadn't thought of. I have more backtesting to do before I feel 95% confident with this method (I would say 100% but anyone who says that isn't a realist, and I am). I'll elaborate more in future posts.

Anyways, today started bad with a $500 hit on crude. Then a nice $300 gain in beans, followed by the trade that made my head hurt (from kicking it repeatedly). Attached is the chart. I missed booking $900 thanks to not following my system. It was just laying there and I let somebody else have it. Back at it tomorrow....

Net breakdown: GCL -$229, ZS $307

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	78
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	297
Avg$Loss:	-515

Killed by Crude

2:40pm CST - OK, I didn't expect this to be easy and today was far from it. I was up $125 or so before crude killed me. I need to change my plan on GCL or maybe switch to QM (mini-crude) or just not trade it. Inventory report didn't help but mostly trying to short at resistance levels was futile. C'est la vie...

But on this day before Thanksgiving Day, I am thankful for the ability to participate in this profession, as hard and as challenging as it is. And making it possible are other things I'm thankful for, namely good health, a good past career in engineering, and no debt.

Net breakdown: 6E -$6, GCL -$612, ZS -$135, TF $21

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	28
Net $P/L:	-733
Wins:	13
Losses:	14
Win%:	48
Avg$Win:	41
Avg$Loss:	-90

Euros, Beans, and Crude -Oh My!

2:55pm CST - It felt like Lions and Tigers and Bears after trading Dogs (ES) for so long. I've watched these markets in the recent past and traded them all years ago but to actually jump right in today had the adrenaline flowing at times. But I took it easy and scalped some gains which could have been much more had I held some of the winners longer. But I'm content with this start into expanding by repertoire...

Net breakdown: 6E -$81, GCL $189, ZS $94

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	202
Wins:	8
Losses:	4
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	66
Avg$Loss:	-81

More than ES

3:10pm CST - Volume wasn't as bad today as I thought it might be but but unless you caught the initial pop up, there was nothing but a slow grind down the rest of the day. I plan to continue to take it easy the rest of this holiday week.

Thanks in part to my fellow bloggers, I've been contemplating expanding my repertoire for some time as the ES has been so tough to trade lately. Currencies, grains, mini-Russell, crude, etc. all have lots of opportunity when the ES is just plain dead. It may be a mistake to be more than a one trick pony (ES) but I will find out anyways. Focusing on multiple markets does take more effort but more effort should result in more opportunity.

Today was 3 ES trades and 1 6E trade. Not sure how I will change my summary table below going forward but for now I'm just lumping all trades together.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	87
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	43
Avg$Loss:	-40

Low Thrills

2:50pm CST - Nice break this week but had to attempt to climb back on the horse today. I nearly shorted yesterday a few minutes after the open at 1099 but "nearly" doesn't count in this business! Today was a low-thrills day that chopped me around but didn't do any damage.

Next week's action with Thanksgiving holiday is bound to be even worse than most of this week.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	16
Wins:	4
Losses:	3
Win%:	57
Avg$Win:	40
Avg$Loss:	-48

Friday the 13th

3:15pm CST - I escaped Friday the 13th bad luck with a final winner that got me back to breakeven on the day. The tape had so many dead zones today it was tough to stay alert.

I told myself mid-week if I didn't have a positive week, I would take some time off for at least part of next week. So that's what I'm going to do. Of course my idea of "time off" means I will still be pouring through charts, backtesting strats, etc. - I just won't be placing trades. Have a good weekend all.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	-1
Wins:	4
Losses:	5
Win%:	44
Avg$Win:	90
Avg$Loss:	-72

Par day

3:50pm CST - Some winners, some losers. And for those that asked, I'll try to post more charts but no promises.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	-51
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	122
Avg$Loss:	-98

Veterans Day

2:50pm CST - A 12 pt. ES range on Veterans Day isn't too bad but it got choppy after the first 1.5 hrs. Got 2 signals today which both stopped out.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	-206
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-103

Pre-holiday chop

3:10pm CST - Lots of chop today with only one winner. But I followed the plan of the day and took every trade signal. The 2 afternoon trades are shown on the chart, a loser and the winner:

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	-135
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	147
Avg$Loss:	-94

Up Monday

2:50pm CST - Nice slow motion move up today but with zero good pullbacks! At least I caught the early breakout.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	147
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	147
Avg$Loss:	0

Quit while I'm behind

11:00am CST - My Friday luck continues. 3 of the losers stopped out to within a tick and reversed to go my way without me to hit my targets. Such is trading. The good news is that I stuck to my plan, did not revenge trade to try to get it back, and shut it down for the day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	-558
Wins:	1
Losses:	7
Win%:	13
Avg$Win:	34
Avg$Loss:	-84

Slow day

3:00pm CST - Slow day with many trades that went nowhere.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	84
Wins:	5
Losses:	1
Win%:	83
Avg$Win:	32
Avg$Loss:	-78

FOMC Day

3:00pm CST - 2 trades after the FOMC non-news. Coulda, woulda, shoulda held the second one into the close for 10+ points...

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	169
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	85
Avg$Loss:	0

Donkey

No trades today....

Thanks to those who have commented or emailed with offers of help. I appreciate it but the main issue I've had lately cannot be solved by anyone but myself. It is in my head. Now a secondary issue may be lack of a winning edge. Anyone wanting to help there, just email me your strategy with all the specific entry/exit details! :)

This landed in my inbox today and seemed appropriate:
----------------------------------------------------------
One day a farmer's donkey fell down into a well. The animal cried piteously for hours as the farmer tried to figure out what to do. Finally, he decided the animal was old, and the well needed to be covered up anyway; it just wasn't worth it to retrieve the donkey.

He invited all his neighbors to come over and help him. They all grabbed a shovel and began to shovel dirt into the well. At first, the donkey realized what was happening and cried horribly. Then, to everyone's amazement he quieted down.

A few shovel loads later, the farmer finally looked down the well. He was astonished at what he saw. With each shovel of dirt that hit his back, the donkey was doing something amazing. He would shake it off and take a step up.

As the farmer's neighbors continued to shovel dirt on top of the animal, he would shake it off and take a step up. Pretty soon, everyone was amazed as the donkey stepped up over the edge of the well and happily trotted off!

MORAL: Life is going to shovel dirt on you, all kinds of dirt. The trick to getting out of the well is to shake it off and take a step up. Each of our troubles is a steppingstone. We can get out of the deepest wells just by not stopping and never giving up! Shake it off and take a step up.

Pathetic

3:15pm CST - Pathetic describes my trading to open this month. Obviously I need to make some changes (how many times have I said that before?). Stay tuned...

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	30
Net $P/L:	-1178
Wins:	6
Losses:	10
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	49
Avg$Loss:	-147

ES October Trading Summary

RESULTS FOR OCTOBER
Contracts:	400
Net $P/L:	-4087
Wins:	75
Losses:	70
Win%:	52
Avg$Win:	100
Avg$Loss:	-165

Poor End

2:45pm CDT - I executed my plan perfectly today taking every signal until I hit my loss limit at 1:30. The ES swings were crazy today and volatility was back. Too bad my plan was not in sync with the swings today. A fitting end to the month. November will be better.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	-996
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	194
Avg$Loss:	-397

No Sim

2:50pm CDT - 1 long and 1 short today - much easier than yesterday's hectic trading pace where I made 24 trades with zero results! Some of my readers have to wonder WTF am I doing? Yes it's very true lately that I've been trying different things and vary strategy as often as daily. The great thing about trading for yourself is that you can do anything you want. Some have said I should be sim trading but that is not for me. I have tried it in the past but it does nothing to help improve my mindset which is and always will be my biggest nemesis.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	164
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	82
Avg$Loss:	0

Slow Speed Selloff

3:15pm CDT - Down $250 after first 2 trades on the day and churned the rest of the day. Back at it tomorrow!

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	49
Net $P/L:	-190
Wins:	11
Losses:	13
Win%:	46
Avg$Win:	85
Avg$Loss:	-86

More Broker Hell

3:10pm CDT - Open ECry had no charts/quotes/DOM for awhile this morning (more than an hour). I tried my best to trade off my eSignal charts alone but it was not a good idea in hindsight. It was a tough market to trade even without broker issues to make matter worst. I'm not sure if/when they will ever get their act together but for the near future, I recommend everyone stay away from OEC until they have at least 3 months of solid performance.

I was down nearly double the end tally after the opening 2 hours. Fought back half of it the rest of the day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	25
Net $P/L:	-490
Wins:	6
Losses:	8
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	95
Avg$Loss:	-132

Monday Moves

3:00pm CDT - A couple nice moves today in the market made for some good trades. I was pretty good at sitting on my hands in the chop.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	300
Wins:	4
Losses:	1
Win%:	80
Avg$Win:	88
Avg$Loss:	-53

Friday

3:10pm CDT - Some good trades early on that I should have held longer, then gave all the gains back in the midday chop, then got it back on the short side after lunch. All in all, an okay week for a change. Look forward to the weekend break.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	199
Wins:	6
Losses:	4
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	74
Avg$Loss:	-62

6 in a row

3:00pm CDT - A good morning with 1-2 point scalps. Missed the afternoon spike. Morning winners on chart below (6 in a row!) - but then I had 5 losers/par trades later, not shown. Ready for Friday...

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	221
Wins:	6
Losses:	5
Win%:	55
Avg$Win:	56
Avg$Loss:	-23

Free Fall

3:15pm CDT - Up $160 at one point, down $160 later on, then back to breakeven on the day. So it goes - a day with a big up move with no retraces to get in, followed by chop, and ending with a huge down move with no decent retraces to get in.

I did scalp a point long a couple minutes after the close on the bounce of that super fast 4 pt. down push that took out all the stops!

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	46
Wins:	6
Losses:	8
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	83
Avg$Loss:	-56

Down Tues.

3:15pm CDT - Some bad entries and overtrading were mostly to blame today for a small down day. I'm feeling out a new methodology so some errors are to be expected. But tomorrow is another day...

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	14
Net $P/L:	-111
Wins:	8
Losses:	5
Win%:	62
Avg$Win:	44
vg$Loss:	-93

Outside Day

2:15pm CDT - 1 nice trade for a few points and a couple trades for a couple ticks that I got out of too early and could have had a point or two on each if held. Always working on that little blemish in my trading psyche, holding winners longer. The work never ends...

On the daily chart, ES logs an outside day (HH and LL than Friday) so I'm quitting a little early to get outside on this first day above 60 deg. in nearly 3 weeks here in Chicago.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	204
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	68
Avg$Loss:	0

Friday

3:00pm CDT - Just one short trade from this morning. Still taking it easy.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	109
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	109
Avg$Loss:	0

Comments

2:45pm CDT - Thanks all who follow along and for most of the comments in Tuesday's post. I read everything that comes in and take it all in, even if it may be blunt unsolicited advice at times. So far I've only had to delete one comment a week or so ago from an Anonymous commenter that called another commenter an idiot. But I know 99% of my followers are mature adults so will likely keep the comment section of this blog unmoderated but reserve the right to change that if I ever need to.

Yesterday I took the day off and will tread lightly going forward for now. One ES trade today shows I am still out of sync, but only by a tick! I was stopped out on a long at the low tick of the regular session at 82.75.

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	-103
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-103

Equity Curve

3:20pm CDT - OK, this month is officially depressing so far. Today I traded TF for a change after reviewing lots of charts last night. My strategy involved entering after a small retrace in trend direction and exiting after 4 or so ticks. Rinse and repeat. Of course nothing goes as smoothly as backtesting but I knew trading 1-lots I would not get me in much trouble. So I trade 1 lots, then upped it to 2 lots after going negative, then increased to 4 and finally 5 lots before hitting my $circuit breaker for the day just after 11am. And so ends another negative day!

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	25
Net $P/L:	-1362
Wins:	1
Losses:	6
Win%:	14
Avg$Win:	186
Avg$Loss:	-258

I'm great at following my trading rules and can trade like a robot anytime with zero emotion if I have an ironclad set of rules covering any and all conditions that could arise in my entry/exit and position size. But my "problem" is that something typically comes up that makes me justify tweaking the rules. And so the trouble begins. Part of the reason recently I think is the dwindling year and the desire to be positive by end of 2009 - not a good reason...

Sometime, hopefully sooner rather than later, things will click for me again and I'll be clicking the mouse according to plan, a winning plan. Until then, my goal must be to limit the damage.

Here's my equity curve since start of this blog nearly 6 months ago. Not very pretty but it's reality.