2016 Trade Analysis

As my regular followers know, it's been a tough year for me.  I ended the year down -$10,390 or -36%.  I changed things up a lot during the year switching from symbol to symbol and system to system to find something that "worked."  I did a bit of demo trading (results not reported in this blog) but still found live trading was the best for me to get a true feel if a method was a "fit" with me.  Most all of my 6E trades were a fully mechanical trading system (which I discontinued trading some time ago).  The other trades were mostly discretionary but with clearly defined signals for entry.  CL was the biggest draw of the year, followed by ES.

Here's the data for 2016:

  

  

On a bright note, I've been pretty happy in the past month and a half or so with my NQ trading. My patience improved a lot during this period and I was content to keep things small (almost all 1 lots).  I plan to continue NQ trading to start 2017.  Adding more contracts and/or other symbols will be in the mix also.

I'm as committed to trading and making a go at this as I've ever been.  The idea of failure or quitting is nowhere near my mindset.  Will there be future setbacks? Of course.  I'm a realist and know how competitive and tough this business really is. Eventually (2017?), I will be consistently growing the equity again.  Happy New Year to all!

Quarter 4 2016 Trading Results

December Trading Summary

RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
NQ Contracts:	51
Net $P/L:	1058
Wins:	33
Losses:	16
Win%:	67
$Commissions:	166
Avg$Win:	97
Avg$Loss:	-134

Fri. 12/30

4:00pm CST - Treaded lightly today since I've been known to F things up at end of month.  Nice to have a winning month for a change, up 5.9%.  Ended the year -$10.4K or -35.5%.  Will post a wrap up tomorrow most likely.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	102
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	102
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 12/29

3:10pm CST - Had to battle back after waiting all morning for that 1st trade.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	55
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	82
Avg$Loss:	-108

In other news, very relaxing streaming this if you have a few spare inches on one of your monitors.  What better example of patience is there than sitting on eggs 24/7 (should hatch any day)...

Wed. 12/28

3:05pm CST - Learning to be content...

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	263
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	132
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 12/27

3:10pm CST - An amazing initial run up that I had no signals for so sat and watched.  Lack of patience on the nil volume rest of day.  Guess I should be happy I'm green.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	57
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	48
Avg$Loss:	-88

In other news, good to see the SEC and other agencies are still looking out for us: www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2016-273.html

Fri. 12/23

1:55pm CST - Pretty sure it wasn't going to be a great day after mega slippage on 1st trade stop.  For the week, net +$528.  Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all!

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	5
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	42
Avg$Loss:	-78

Thurs. 12/22

2:05pm CST - At least the last trade was easy.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	100
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	111
Avg$Loss:	-116

Wed. 12/21

3:25pm CST - Very muted moves today made for lots of sitting and waiting.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	100
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	57
Avg$Loss:	-13

Tues. 12/20

2:55pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	180
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	60
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 12/19

3:00pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	142
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	75
Avg$Loss:	-83

Thurs. 12/15

3:05pm CST - As frustrating as a day can get.  MTD up $50...

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	-333
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	12
Avg$Loss:	-115

Wed. 12/14

2:25pm CST - FOMC day gyrations got me scared to hold that last one.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	300
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	100
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 12/13

1:50pm CST - $1500 range per contract in NQ.  Got a sliver but still shaking my head.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	102
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	55
Avg$Loss:	-63

Mon. 12/12

2:55pm CST - The revenge trade short just after stop out was not to plan but the market didn't punish me for it (exited 1.5 hrs. later).

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	0
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	228
Avg$Loss:	-228

Fri. 12/09 + Blog Stats

4:00pm CST - No trades yesterday, mostly because it was rollover. Nice to catch a good chunk of range today with mostly choppy conditions in hindsight.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	202
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	202
Avg$Loss:	0

In other news, Pandawarrior recently reported he hit 50,000 pageviews so thought I'd pull up my Google Analytics stats to see the data since this blog started and just this year (at bottom).  There's a slight downtrend since 2012 it seems. I guess interest is directly proportional to my equity curve! ha

Wed. 12/07

2:25pm CST - What a move up. Glad I took my short off when I did.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	102
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	102
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 12/06

2:20pm CST - In the 13 days I've traded this method, I made $900 and have given back $800 or so now.  Not exactly instilling confidence!

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	-288
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-288

Mon. 12/05

2:35pm CST - My initial trade being a big fat loser seems the norm lately with NQ making a nice move only to V-turn and go all the way back to the other side.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	3
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	257
Avg$Loss:	-253

Thurs. 12/01 & Fri. 12/02

Yesterday -  Didn't get a chance to post so here's a Ninja chart. Wish I had held for 3x this...

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	332
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	332
Avg$Loss:	0

3:20pm CST - Tough day with early whipsaw taking me out and then a short trade ended up racking up lots of MAE but exited at close for scratch.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	-367
Wins:	0
Losses:	2
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-183

November Trading Summary

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
YM -$717(53), NQ +$439(14)

RESULTS FOR NOVEMBER
Contracts:	67
Net $P/L:	-277
Wins:	30
Losses:	37
Win%:	45
$Commissions:	217
Avg$Win:	81
Avg$Loss:	-73

Wed. 11/30

3:05pm CST - Not my week so far...

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	-175
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	157
Avg$Loss:	-166

Tues. 11/29

6:10pm CST - Had to leave around Noon. Just as well as I don't think I would have handled the megaphone very well or caught the late day nose dive. Crazy market.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	-198
Wins:	0
Losses:	1
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-198

Mon. 11/28

3:05pm CST - Had a chance to get out with +$100 but held on for more.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	-92
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	32
Avg$Loss:	-123

Fri. 11/25

10:35am CST - Really slow action today, no surprise.  Yesterday would have actually been a good long trade for 40+ ticks if I had traded.  For the week, net +$570 so no complaints.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	102
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	102
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 11/23

11:20am CST - May or may not trade the next 2 days with Equity markets open in the morning both days. Happy USA Thanksgiving to all. So much to be thankful for:  health, family, happiness, and the option to trade for a living (or attempt to anyways)! Cheers!

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	202
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	202
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 11/22

1:50pm CST - Poor trade management today but not losing anything is not a bad day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	20
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	77
Avg$Loss:	-133

Mon. 11/21

12:15pm CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	247
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	247
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 11/18

2:35pm CST - Not enough patience on the exit. Oh well.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	132
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	132
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 11/17

11:40am CST - New trade plan, system/method, and hopefully patience to manage trades well.  Plan to finish the year on a strong note.

RESULTS FOR DAY
NQ Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	202
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	202
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 11/09

12:45pm CST - Post-election depression that the USA actually elected Trump or realization that I am unable to execute whatever "edge" I thought I had?  Either way, need a break.

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-292
Wins:	6
Losses:	10
Win%:	38
Avg$Win:	43
Avg$Loss:	-55

Tues. 11/08

2:00pm CST - Gave up early after getting caught in the chop.  5th trade would have been great if I hadn't moved my stop to +1...

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	-264
Wins:	1
Losses:	5
Win%:	17
Avg$Win:	2
Avg$Loss:	-53

Mon. 11/07

6:15pm CST - When will I learn?

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	2
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	54
Avg$Loss:	-53

Fri. 11/04

3:00pm CDT - For the week, net -$61.

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	106
Wins:	3
Losses:	3
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	72
Avg$Loss:	-37

Thurs. 11/03

3:00pm CDT - Dead day but a slight move down in afternoon.  It was like a holiday here in Chicago after last night.  Should have slept in after a crazy late night!

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	1
Wins:	5
Losses:	4
Win%:	56
Avg$Win:	48
Avg$Loss:	-60

Wed. 11/02

3:00pm CDT - Nothing went my way today. Tough choppy FOMC day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	-369
Wins:	2
Losses:	4
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	12
Avg$Loss:	-98

Tues. 11/01

1:40pm CDT - Had to work for it today.

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	101
Wins:	2
Losses:	4
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	174
Avg$Loss:	-62

October Trading Summary

RESULTS FOR OCTOBER
YM Contracts:	48
Net $P/L:	-544
Wins:	17
Losses:	30
Win%:	36
$Commissions:	156
Avg$Win:	97
Avg$Loss:	-73

Mon. 10/31

2:45pm CDT - Good to end the month on an up note and a positive trend over the past 9 trading days.  YTD -$11K, -38%.

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	102
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	102
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 10/28

2:40pm CDT - Really?  The increased volatility after FBI announced it will reopen Hillary email probe reeked some havoc on my system and discipline.  Mostly followed plan but could have all been avoided if I had the balls to take some better exits in the morning.  Some stuff to ponder before Monday.  Net +$54 on the week.  Go Cubs!

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	-302
Wins:	4
Losses:	12
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	123
Avg$Loss:	-66

Thurs. 10/27

1:25pm CDT -

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	1
Net $P/L:	102
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	102
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 10/26

1:50pm CDT - Tough day mostly due to trade mismanagement.  Not sure if this price action is the new norm but it's really tough to sit through.

RESULTS FOR DAY
YM Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	52
Wins:	3
Losses:	3
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	77
Avg$Loss:	-60