MBAGearhead Trading Journey

For the rest of my trading career

2012-02-14T13:50:00.000-06:00

1:50pm CST - Frustrating day again. The kicker was a short 4-lot CL trade I sat on for nearly an hour at 100.90 that I got stopped out at BE only to see it fall to 100.30 within a half hour (my target was 100.50).

The latter half of 2011 and this year I have been trading a mix of systems with a bit of discretion on which signals to take and exactly where to exit, stop for the day, etc. No more! I will not take another trade, FOR THE REST OF MY TRADING CAREER, that isn’t completely and precisely defined with an exact entry signal along with risk and trade management parameters. If it can’t be mechanically traded by a brainless monkey (aka: me), there will be no trade!

Back at it soon...

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
ZS -$510(14), CL -$461(7)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	-971
Wins:	0
Losses:	8
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-121

Mon. 2/13

2012-02-13T13:25:00.000-06:00

1:25pm CST - Got the move I was looking for but not until the last 15 min. of the day when I was done. And what happened to Crude Oil this afternoon? Halted at CME? At least I wasn't trading that. Feels like Friday the 13th.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	-1133
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	240
Avg$Loss:	-686

Fri. 2/10

2012-02-10T13:35:00.003-06:00

1:35pm CST - Tough day to trade beans. Had a couple opportunities to take 2-3 cents profit but was holding for bigger gains. Not the day to do that it turns out except for the last trade which would have gotten me back to black if I had held. For the week, net gain of $176.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	34
Net $P/L:	-1263
Wins:	2
Losses:	8
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	232
Avg$Loss:	-216

Thurs. 2/09

2012-02-09T11:35:00.001-06:00

11:35am CST - One and done in 4 mins. today. I really have to work on holding these longer. The opportunity cost is killing me.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	579
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	579
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 2/08

2012-02-08T11:24:00.003-06:00

11:35am CST - The less than 5 cent range in opening half hour had me thinking it would be a dull day. That explains the early exit on last trade which I should have squeezed at least another cent out (or 8). Crossed back to positive side on the year.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	8
Net $P/L:	359
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	379
Avg$Loss:	-10

Tues. 2/07

2012-02-07T13:25:00.000-06:00

1:25pm CST - Tough 6.5 cent range in beans today so I can't complain with $211.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	211
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	210
Avg$Loss:	-208

Mon. 2/06

2012-02-06T13:40:00.001-06:00

1:40pm CST - I'm still here. Took some time off last week and nearly forgot how to click the mouse this morning. I meant to click in a couple 2-lots but managed only a couple 1-lots on this trade.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	290
Wins:	1
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	290
Avg$Loss:	0

January Trading Summary

2012-01-31T16:00:00.002-06:00

Net breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$662(13), ES $197(1), CL -$584(190), ZS $467(16)

RESULTS FOR JANUARY
Contracts:	220
Net $P/L:	-580
Wins:	44
Losses:	69
Win%:	39
$Commissions:	990
Avg$Win:	263
Avg$Loss:	-176

Past Monthly Trading Summaries - link on the right
Equity Curve - updated link on the right

Mon. 1/30

2012-01-30T14:05:00.001-06:00

2:05pm CST - Couple bean trades (discretionary) to kick off and likely end the week. Still working on system tweaks.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ZS Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	467
Wins:	2
Losses:	2
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	579
Avg$Loss:	-346

Wed. 1/25

2012-01-25T14:05:00.001-06:00

2:05pm CST - Little was going my way again today and an order issue had me in trade limbo for awhile today. Back to the drawing board for me in the days ahead, or longer.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	38
Net $P/L:	-1359
Wins:	3
Losses:	16
Win%:	16
Avg$Win:	418
Avg$Loss:	-163

Tues. 1/24

2012-01-24T09:35:00.001-06:00

9:35am CST - Better...

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	616
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	264
Avg$Loss:	-89

Mon. 1/23

2012-01-23T13:35:00.000-06:00

1:35pm CST - All systems out of sync today.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$210(2), CL -$1451(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	-1661
Wins:	2
Losses:	7
Win%:	22
Avg$Win:	87
Avg$Loss:	-262

Fri. 1/20

2012-01-20T11:00:00.000-06:00

11:00am CST - Good day and good to meet the goal for week of average gain of $250/day. For the week, net gain of $1176.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$80(1), CL $584(8)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	505
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	361
Avg$Loss:	-72

Thurs. 1/19

2012-01-19T13:25:00.001-06:00

1:25pm CST - Rough start but strong finish.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	529
Wins:	4
Losses:	4
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	346
Avg$Loss:	-214

Wed. 1/18

2012-01-18T13:55:00.003-06:00

1:55pm CST - As rollover approaches, I found CL choppy today. Should have stopped after trade 13 when I got above water. Several stop outs within a tick could have made a big difference today if they had gone on to targets instead. But you can't live in the past so bring on tomorrow.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $73(3), CL -$433(30)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	33
Net $P/L:	-360
Wins:	8
Losses:	11
Win%:	42
Avg$Win:	206
Avg$Loss:	-182

Tues. 1/17

2012-01-17T10:50:00.001-06:00

10:50am CST - A couple trades started the week on the right foot.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	4
Net $P/L:	502
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	251
Avg$Loss:	0

Fri. 1/13

2012-01-13T13:10:00.001-06:00

1:10pm CST - Can I blame Friday the 13th? I didn't think so. For the week, net loss of -$211.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$444(4), CL -$1011(16)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	-1455
Wins:	2
Losses:	10
Win%:	17
Avg$Win:	221
Avg$Loss:	-190

Thurs. 1/12

2012-01-12T09:10:00.002-06:00

9:10am CST - Short day.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E -$130(1), CL $631(2)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	501
Wins:	1
Losses:	1
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	631
Avg$Loss:	-130

Wed. 1/11

2012-01-11T11:15:00.001-06:00

11:15am CST - As usual, left lots on the table but isn't that the life of a scalper? Good day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	496
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	171
Avg$Loss:	-9

Tues. 1/10

2012-01-10T13:15:00.001-06:00

1:15pm CST - Could have been much better but an okay day.

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
6E $128(2), CL $178(14)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	16
Net $P/L:	306
Wins:	5
Losses:	4
Win%:	56
Avg$Win:	204
Avg$Loss:	-179

Mon. 1/09

2012-01-09T14:05:00.002-06:00

2:05pm CST - Got off to a bad start but recovered. Thought I'd answer the comments from Friday here with the below chart. I do appreciate the feedback and suggestions. I know the arguments very well on the pros/cons of taking every trade vs. stopping trading after a certain dollar profit or loss is hit, whichever comes first. I used to be firmly in the "take every trade" camp and still mostly am. But I've wavered in my thinking over the past year or so and do see benefit to stopping for the day after being up a target profit amount. But limiting the downside to the same amount as the upside just doesn't work for me. Believing I have an edge in my approach, it make sense to continue trading if I have a few losers in a row. Today was a great example. If I had had a -$500 cutoff in place, I would have quit trading after trade 4 for a loss on the day of -$755. But believing in my trading, I continued trading and ended near even on the day. That's not to say I don't have a downside "uncle" point. But it is not any particular hard number I can live with and will vary based on how I feel each day. Perhaps this too will change someday.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	-59
Wins:	4
Losses:	6
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	179
Avg$Loss:	-129

Fri. 1/06

2012-01-06T09:50:00.001-06:00

9:50am CST - Jumped back in the water today. At least for Jan., the plan is to quit for the day when up $300-400. Slow and steady. After all, averaging $250 a day will get me 100% return on the year. The real question is will I give back multiple days of gains in a single losing day as I did a lot in 2011?

Net Breakdown (contracts traded):
ES $197(1), CL $193(6)

RESULTS FOR DAY
Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	391
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	207
Avg$Loss:	-229

Testosterone

2012-01-04T10:30:00.001-06:00

No trades yet for me in 2012. Hope to be back at it soon.
In the meantime, here's something else to worry about! LOL

2011 Trade Analysis

2011-12-31T12:30:00.003-06:00

You can't manage what you can't measure. Too bad you can't measure the mental side of this business. That's where we all need the most help, typically! But we can measure nearly everything else and the end of the year is a good time to do just that, not to dwell on the past or curse its results, but to reflect and add some objective insight into what worked and what didn't. Then file it in the memory banks, and move forward!

The goal for the year was a 100% return. Far from that, I achieved a loss of -28% or -$22,209. With futures being a zero-sum game, you could conclude that I had a lot more money taken from me by other traders than I took from them. But you would be wrong. I actually grossed +$4,880 on the year, not that there is any silver lining in that! But commissions (Clearing, NFA, & broker's commissions combined) accounted for the loss on the year.

Looking more closely at the numbers below, I found it interesting that ZS was my biggest loss of 2011 and my biggest gain of 2010. Trading my ZS system in March this year was by far the biggest reason for this year's negative result. I lost over $18k trading soybeans in that one month alone.

A few more self explanatory charts below. Most interesting is the last one which shows that trades that were in the market less than 3.75 minutes generally lost money while those that lasted longer contributed to a positive P/L curve. Last year 2.75 minutes seemed to be the turning point.

There wasn't much consistency in 2011 mostly because I jumped around from system to system with some discretionary trading also in the mix. I couldn't get anything to work for any extended length of time. Who knows what 2012 will bring but I will be hard at it and will be repeating the same goal of a 100% return.

Quarter 4 2011 Trading Results

2011-12-30T12:20:00.003-06:00

And a look at the entire year of 2011:

December Trading Summary

2011-12-30T11:33:00.002-06:00

RESULTS FOR DECEMBER
CL Contracts:	470
Net $P/L:	-957
Wins:	74
Losses:	84
Win%:	47
$Commissions:	2087
Avg$Win:	352
Avg$Loss:	-322

Fri. 12/30

2011-12-30T11:30:00.002-06:00

11:30am CST - A couple more 1-lot trades to wrap up the year. Look for year-end wrap tomorrow.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	291
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	145
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 12/29

2011-12-29T11:00:00.001-06:00

11:00am CST - A couple 1-lot trades to test out a new system which is a complete change to how I've been trading this year. We'll see how it pans out after more backtesting.

Regarding 2012, "It's not where I've been or what I've done that matters most. My future success is based on the goals I choose now. My determination to reach them and the next steps I take. My incredible future starts today and I can't wait to make it happen!" Shad Helmstetter

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	2
Net $P/L:	451
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	225
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 12/22

2011-12-22T09:35:00.001-06:00

9:35am CST - Up $600 on first trade, then a slow bleed until I threw in the towel on the day, week, and likely the year. For the week, net loss of -$2233.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	24
Net $P/L:	-1157
Wins:	1
Losses:	7
Win%:	13
Avg$Win:	587
Avg$Loss:	-249

Wed. 12/21

2011-12-21T09:05:00.001-06:00

9:05am CST - Chopped to death.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	27
Net $P/L:	-2280
Wins:	1
Losses:	8
Win%:	11
Avg$Win:	347
Avg$Loss:	-328

Tues. 12/20

2011-12-20T08:45:00.002-06:00

8:45am CST -

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	1010
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	337
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 12/19

2011-12-19T09:50:00.000-06:00

9:50am CST - Just trading the first couple hours, likely for remainder of year.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	193
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	362
Avg$Loss:	-177

Short Videos

2011-12-17T08:50:00.000-06:00

Some good free stuff on the web. I don't endorse these sites but found some value in their mini webinars.

From Emini-Watch:
Day 1: Target a small daily profit … Stop over-trading
Day 2: Use fewer price indicators … Stop using multiple correlated indicators
Day 3: Focus on less … Stop information overload
Day 4: Give your trades room to work … Stop using tight stops
Day 5: Use a higher timeframe to determine trend … Stop using just one timeframe
Day 6: Do what other people can’t … Stop thinking like the crowd
Day 7: Think in terms of cyclical & trending phases … Stop expecting a trend move
Day 8: Enter on a test of the trend … Stop chasing or fighting the trend
Day 9: Track your mistakes … Stop repeating common errors
Day 10: Invest in your trading … Stop doing things on the cheap

From Top Dog Trading:
Video for Lesson 1
Video for Lesson 2
Video for Lesson 3
Video for Lesson 4
Video for Lesson 5

Fri. 12/16

2011-12-16T14:10:00.001-06:00

2:10pm CST - I felt like Homer Simpson today. More work to do as usual. There's a fuzzy line between giving trades a tight leash vs. giving them too much room. I've crossed that line a million times. If it weren't so fuzzy I would know which side to stay on. For the week, net loss -$898.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	47
Net $P/L:	-999
Wins:	7
Losses:	10
Win%:	41
Avg$Win:	181
Avg$Loss:	-226

Thurs. 12/15

2011-12-15T10:05:00.001-06:00

10:05am CST - One step forward...

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	27
Net $P/L:	940
Wins:	5
Losses:	4
Win%:	56
Avg$Win:	427
Avg$Loss:	-298

Wed. 12/14

2011-12-14T14:00:00.001-06:00

2:00pm CST - Two steps back again. I'm getting good at that. Holding today, like yesterday, was the way to go (in hindsight). CL closed down over $5 and over 5%.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	66
Net $P/L:	-2683
Wins:	6
Losses:	16
Win%:	27
Avg$Win:	388
Avg$Loss:	-313

Tues. 12/13

2011-12-13T09:55:00.003-06:00

9:55am CST - Days like today make you question whether taking little nibbles of profits is the best approach. Some gurus tout holding for big gains. But I know from years of backtesting that most of the time, hitting singles is the way to go. Sure my first trade today which I got out at BE could have easily made $6000+ with a risk of only $500 but that is the beauty of hindsight. What caused the $1.50+ up move in crude in less than a minute is beyond me and can’t be predicted. Anyways, enough coin for today for me.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	21
Net $P/L:	1077
Wins:	5
Losses:	2
Win%:	71
Avg$Win:	311
Avg$Loss:	-238

Mon. 12/12

2011-12-12T14:15:00.001-06:00

2:15pm CST - Tweaked the method a bit over weekend. Good first day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	39
Net $P/L:	767
Wins:	6
Losses:	7
Win%:	46
Avg$Win:	370
Avg$Loss:	-208

Fri. 12/09

2011-12-09T13:40:00.000-06:00

1:40pm CST - Mistakes made but broke even at least. For the week, net loss -$86.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	39
Net $P/L:	17
Wins:	4
Losses:	7
Win%:	36
Avg$Win:	459
Avg$Loss:	-260

Thurs. 12/08

2011-12-08T13:25:00.003-06:00

1:25pm CST - The epitome of an up and down day. That last trade had an equal chance of going up and I gave it lots of room to run or stop, knowing it would be my last trade, and it chose to stop.

"Finish each day and be done with it. You have done what you could. Some blunders and absurdities have crept in; forget them as soon as you can. Tomorrow is a new day. You shall begin it serenely and with too high a spirit to be encumbered with your old nonsense."
-Ralph Waldo Emerson

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	42
Net $P/L:	-2036
Wins:	6
Losses:	7
Win%:	46
Avg$Win:	507
Avg$Loss:	-725

Wed. 12/07

2011-12-07T13:00:00.001-06:00

1:00pm CST - Lots of trades today but ended up okay. No excuse for last trade.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	33
Net $P/L:	783
Wins:	7
Losses:	4
Win%:	64
Avg$Win:	295
Avg$Loss:	-321

Tues. 12/06

2011-12-06T11:10:00.001-06:00

11:10am CST - Two and done today. Much better than yesterday.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	6
Net $P/L:	1113
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	557
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 12/05

2011-12-05T13:55:00.002-06:00

1:55pm CST - Got off to a bad start but battled back to even.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	30
Net $P/L:	37
Wins:	5
Losses:	5
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	357
Avg$Loss:	-349

Fri. 12/02

2011-12-02T13:15:00.000-06:00

1:15pm CST - Slow afternoon but a decent start to the month. For the week, net loss -$1085.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	23
Net $P/L:	938
Wins:	6
Losses:	2
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	277
Avg$Loss:	-363

Thurs. 12/01

2011-12-01T14:25:00.001-06:00

2:25pm CST - I'll take it. Left too much on table however.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	580
Wins:	4
Losses:	2
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	414
Avg$Loss:	-538

November Trading Summary

2011-11-30T14:10:00.002-06:00

Net breakdown:
ES -$2452, CL -$3205

RESULTS FOR NOVEMBER
Contracts:	376
Net $P/L:	-5657
Wins:	31
Losses:	58
Win%:	35
$Commissions:	1147
Avg$Win:	499
Avg$Loss:	-364

Wed. 11/30

2011-11-30T14:05:00.000-06:00

2:05pm CST - So goes the day, so goes the month.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	-2843
Wins:	0
Losses:	4
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-711

Tues. 11/29

2011-11-29T10:10:00.001-06:00

10:10am CST - Done early today. Technically, the 2nd trade should have been a loser because the target was 99.80 and it would have stopped out if I hadn't taken it off early. It's really not a good thing to get rewarded when you circumvent your system.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	9
Net $P/L:	1460
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	487
Avg$Loss:	0

Mon. 11/28

2011-11-28T13:50:00.001-06:00

1:50pm CST - Developed a new CL system over the holiday break and started trading it today with 3 lots. Backtest period shows that it should have about 63% winners and avg. win equals the avg. loss.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	-1220
Wins:	2
Losses:	4
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	602
Avg$Loss:	-606

Wed. 11/23

2011-11-23T11:50:00.001-06:00

11:50am CST - Traded after all with oil inventory report today. However I mostly just churned my way to nowhere. I need to work with charts a bit over the holiday break on taking fewer CL trades if I'm going to continue with oil. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	-7
Wins:	2
Losses:	7
Win%:	22
Avg$Win:	462
Avg$Loss:	-133

Tues. 11/22

2011-11-22T14:20:00.001-06:00

2:20pm CST - Dug an early hole and quit after I filled it in on the final trade. May or may not trade tomorrow as I expect things to be pretty dead pre-holiday.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	31
Wins:	1
Losses:	4
Win%:	20
Avg$Win:	1078
Avg$Loss:	-262

Mon. 11/21

2011-11-21T14:55:00.002-06:00

2:55pm CST - Monday strikes again. Today's lesson, moving stops to BE too quickly on CL. I threw in the towel after 10 tries. I forgot how choppy she can be.

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	14
Net $P/L:	-832
Wins:	1
Losses:	9
Win%:	10
Avg$Win:	1
Avg$Loss:	-93

Fri. 11/18

2011-11-18T10:00:00.003-06:00

10:00am CST - Tried something new today. My old buddy CL. And I'm quitting while I'm ahead. Rest of day scrolling through charts most likely. For the week, net loss of -$4541.

"The most important motive for work is pleasure in work, pleasure in its results, and the knowledge of the value of the result to the community."- Albert Einstein
Not sure how best to spin the last part but we do provide liquidity and once I make a $million+ I plan to significantly increase my contributions to charity. :)

RESULTS FOR DAY
CL Contracts:	10
Net $P/L:	206
Wins:	3
Losses:	4
Win%:	43
Avg$Win:	226
Avg$Loss:	-118

Thurs. 11/17

2011-11-17T09:45:00.001-06:00

9:45am CST - I don't have it in me to fight back today. Back to the drawing board...

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	31
Net $P/L:	-2756
Wins:	0
Losses:	5
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-551

Wed. 11/16

2011-11-16T15:15:00.002-06:00

3:15pm CST - Not a good day but became bearable after a +6 pt. short during that late day free fall thanks to more Euro news.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	72
Net $P/L:	-389
Wins:	3
Losses:	6
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	1112
Avg$Loss:	-621

Tues. 11/15

2011-11-15T14:15:00.000-06:00

2:15pm CST - Doesn't take much to improve from yesterday's performance.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	24
Net $P/L:	1037
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	829
Avg$Loss:	-621

Mon. 11/14

2011-11-14T14:55:00.000-06:00

2:55pm CST - One of those days.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	34
Net $P/L:	-2639
Wins:	0
Losses:	4
Win%:	0
Avg$Win:	0
Avg$Loss:	-660

Fri. 11/11

2011-11-11T15:15:00.002-06:00

3:15pm CST - Shouldn't have wasted my time today sitting through Veterans Day action. Very muted. P/L went up and down a couple times and closed under water. Oh well. For the week, net gain of +$2295.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	34
Net $P/L:	-214
Wins:	3
Losses:	3
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	334
Avg$Loss:	-406

Thurs. 11/10

2011-11-10T12:10:00.001-06:00

12:10pm CST - Two and done today.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	12
Net $P/L:	794
Wins:	2
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	397
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 11/09

2011-11-09T15:15:00.001-06:00

3:15pm CST - Lots of trades today. I decided after I was up ~$600 to trade only 1 or 2 lots. I may do more of that. Reduces the risk of giving it all back but allows continued trading when signals appear and the stars align.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	42
Net $P/L:	715
Wins:	5
Losses:	4
Win%:	56
Avg$Win:	364
Avg$Loss:	-276

Tues. 11/08

2011-11-08T15:00:00.001-06:00

3:00pm CST - Tough day... an early short had me up $500 but then the next long wouldn't fill me at my 2 pt. target even after trading my price, so I lowered my target a tick but I was too late and I stopped out at BE. Final trade got to half of target before stopping for a 1.5 pt. loss.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	28
Wins:	1
Losses:	2
Win%:	33
Avg$Win:	509
Avg$Loss:	-240

Mon. 11/07

2011-11-07T12:50:00.000-06:00

12:50pm CST - Tried out a new fading strategy today that I've been working on. So far, so good.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	20
Net $P/L:	973
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	330
Avg$Loss:	-16

Brokers (cont.)

2011-11-04T08:45:00.000-05:00

"Call it the mother of all margin calls: Up to 50,000 former customers of bankrupt broker MF Global must find some $1 billion in additional collateral almost overnight, or be forced out of their trades." (Source)

Brokers

2011-11-02T13:30:00.001-05:00

The MF Global debacle is sickening. I used to have an account there years ago. Glad I don't now! Heads should certainly roll if customer segregated funds were indeed "borrowed" by the firm. CME is to blame too since they should have caught this in an audit.

This data ranks all the FCMs by amount of customer funds as of August 2011. If MF Global did lose $700 million in client funds, as some have said, that's about 10% of the total. So hopefully clients get at least 90 cents on the dollar back. CME says they don't know how much is missing so this is all premature of course. But it is still sickening.

On a side note and interesting to me at least, is that my broker OpenECry's growth in customer funds (now at 81 million) has plateaued. (Source) Maybe being bought by OptionsExpress, which is now owned by Charles Schwab, has hurt growth or maybe it's just the economy?

October Trading Summary

2011-10-31T14:46:00.004-05:00

RESULTS FOR OCTOBER
ES Contracts:	1242
Net $P/L:	233
Wins:	108
Losses:	53
Win%:	67
$Commissions:	3254
Avg$Win:	270
Avg$Loss:	-546

Mon. 10/31

2011-10-31T14:45:00.001-05:00

2:45pm CDT - Sad performance on this final day of the month. Was up over a grand and then had a couple full stops in the late day lull. Perhaps I should just not trade in these conditions. But saying that and doing that are two entirely different things. I will be taking the rest of the week off most likely to work more on strategy development.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	106
Net $P/L:	-3328
Wins:	2
Losses:	3
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	462
Avg$Loss:	-1417

Fri. 10/28

2011-10-28T14:25:00.001-05:00

2:25pm CDT - A choppy, go nowhere, less than 10-pt. range ES day. For the week, a whopping net +$149. Enough to buy groceries for the week. :)

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	57
Net $P/L:	13
Wins:	1
Losses:	3
Win%:	25
Avg$Win:	160
Avg$Loss:	-49

Thurs. 10/27

2011-10-27T14:25:00.002-05:00

2:25pm CDT - Near perfect moves in ES today. Didn't get any size on due to shallow retraces but 1 short followed by 2 longs was fine for the day.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	3
Net $P/L:	455
Wins:	3
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	151
Avg$Loss:	0

Wed. 10/26

2011-10-26T14:45:00.001-05:00

2:45pm CDT - Up $500 then I had 2 max-size stops in a row losing $5k. That has never happened in all my backtesting of this strategy. I could blame the EU but what's the point? At least the next 5 trades got half of the loss back.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	92
Net $P/L:	-1841
Wins:	8
Losses:	2
Win%:	80
Avg$Win:	391
Avg$Loss:	-2484

Tues. 10/25

2011-10-25T14:45:00.000-05:00

2:45pm CDT - Tough day and market felt like a totally different instrument that yesterday. Nothing like EU news to shake things up. Luckily I sat out the early morning gyrations. After that, the ying and yang were just off enough to throw my strategy into conservative mode and I exited many trades at/near breakeven only to see price then move as expected.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	91
Net $P/L:	512
Wins:	4
Losses:	4
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	180
Avg$Loss:	-53

Mon. 10/24

2011-10-24T14:50:00.000-05:00

2:50pm CDT - Very slow, low volume day. Volume just barely beat Columbus Day on the ES. Most of my trades worked albeit very very slowly. Patience wins.

On another note, I scrolled through ZS charts and recorded what would have been if I had continued trading my old dog ZSRO system. Very doggy lately!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	1011
Wins:	3
Losses:	1
Win%:	75
Avg$Win:	344
Avg$Loss:	-21

Fri. 10/21

2011-10-21T13:50:00.001-05:00

1:50pm CDT - Packing it in for the week a little early. ES action is too spurty and thin for my liking. For the week, net loss of -$1563. I take some console in knowing it would have been +2.6k or so if not for my f*ck up Tues.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	11
Net $P/L:	1484
Wins:	6
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	247
Avg$Loss:	0

Thurs. 10/20

2011-10-20T14:40:00.002-05:00

2:40pm CDT - Was up ~800 before a max size stop out early afternoon. I've had my fill of those for the week, thank you very much.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	72
Net $P/L:	-1601
Wins:	5
Losses:	5
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	193
Avg$Loss:	-514

Wed. 10/19

2011-10-19T14:25:00.000-05:00

2:25pm CDT - Yesterday's history, a new day dawns. But it was good to vent as I was really pissed at myself. Nice calm market action today made for a good day. Only traded once after Beige book release and could have taken a few more signals that would have been winners but there's always tomorrow and the day after that and the day after that and the day after that...

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	48
Net $P/L:	1899
Wins:	5
Losses:	2
Win%:	71
Avg$Win:	397
Avg$Loss:	-42

Tues. 10/18

2011-10-18T15:05:00.001-05:00

3:05pm CDT - Unfreakin’ believable – I made a rookie trade that is so unforgivable there should be some kind of punishment for it, besides loss of capital. It was not part of my strategy and I took it just because I didn’t believe the move up around 2:10 CDT would continue. Fading strong, momentum, high-volume moves with large size is as dumb as it gets. Granted I didn’t know about the Europe bailout plan news until after the fact but still! Then a revenge trade right after that could have been much worse but I wised up and exited with a 2 tick loss. -$4200 was the total cost of the trades that should not have existed and wipes out the previous 4 days worth of gains.

Other than that, it should have been a breakeven or slightly up day. I did have a legitimate max-size stop out early in day but had worked my way back to down just $150 when my brilliant fade idea materialized.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	134
Net $P/L:	-4339
Wins:	6
Losses:	5
Win%:	55
Avg$Win:	392
Avg$Loss:	-1339

Mon. 10/17

2011-10-17T14:45:00.002-05:00

2:45pm CDT - A very slow grind down all day. Didn't get much size on due to shallow retraces but didn't take much heat on any trades either.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	7
Net $P/L:	994
Wins:	4
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	249
Avg$Loss:	0

Below is a look back I did over weekend of my results with my ES strategy for first 4 weeks (20 days) trading it. During that time I had 6 max-size stop outs which account for 89% of my losses. If I can keep those to less than 5% of my total trades, things should work well going forward. I decided not to post my backtested P/L curve that I mentioned a few weeks ago because what I've been doing in live trading is slightly different so what's the point...

Net $P/L:	12549
Wins:	121
Losses:	61
Win%:	66
Avg$Win:	257
Avg$Loss:	-305

Fri. 10/14

2011-10-14T14:30:00.001-05:00

2:30pm CDT - Another slow, low volume day. 10.5 pt. daily range in ES (with 45 min. to go) is the tightest session since July 26th. Took a couple early exits after being lulled to sleep. For the week, net gain of +$4781.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	15
Net $P/L:	823
Wins:	4
Losses:	1
Win%:	80
Avg$Win:	211
Avg$Loss:	-21

Thurs. 10/13

2011-10-13T14:45:00.001-05:00

2:45pm CDT - Nearly got burned on the final hour selloff but escaped unscathed. Good day overall.

Foreign-Exchange Traders (Source) are among the "World's Most Influential Players." Who knew?! I only posted this as it says 30% have success. That beats the 10% that we often hear sited...

"Main Street's appetite for trading currencies keeps growing, despite government warnings about excessive risk. Individual investors make up about 8 percent of the Forex market worldwide and execute $315 billion in trades daily, up from 2 percent and $38 billion in 2004, according to Aite Group. But -- ahem -- only about 30 percent of do-it-yourselfers make money in their accounts, according to data from brokerage firms. This summer the SEC warned that currency trading wasn't appropriate for all investors, and U.S. regulators have drafted new rules to curtail trading risk. But Aite analyst Javier Paz says that any new guidelines are not likely to slow the stampede: He expects more growth over the next few years, as additional U.S. banks and securities firms begin catering to individual foreign-exchange traders."

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	73
Net $P/L:	1758
Wins:	7
Losses:	3
Win%:	70
Avg$Win:	269
Avg$Loss:	-42

Wed. 10/12

2011-10-12T14:30:00.001-05:00

2:30pm CDT - Volume is still low but ramping up a bit from the past few days. FOMC minutes didn't add much action to the day and I played it safe and stayed on the sidelines just before and after the release.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	25
Net $P/L:	1010
Wins:	5
Losses:	1
Win%:	83
Avg$Win:	210
Avg$Loss:	-42

Tue. 10/11

2011-10-11T15:15:00.000-05:00

3:15pm CDT - Felt like Columbus Day Part II. Another low volume day with lots of chop. Fading every swing after the first hour would have been gold today. But I did okay, all considered.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	99
Net $P/L:	803
Wins:	4
Losses:	6
Win%:	40
Avg$Win:	256
Avg$Loss:	-37

Mon. 10/10

2011-10-10T14:50:00.001-05:00

2:50pm CDT - Yawn - Columbus Day action.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	5
Net $P/L:	387
Wins:	2
Losses:	1
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	196
Avg$Loss:	-5

Fri. 10/07

2011-10-07T15:00:00.000-05:00

3:00pm CDT - Up, down, up today - up $800, then down to -$1600, and ended on $100. For the week, net gain of +$193. If not for EU news burning me again, it would have been a nice week. But it wasn't negative which is all that really matters.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	72
Net $P/L:	99
Wins:	9
Losses:	2
Win%:	82
Avg$Win:	292
Avg$Loss:	-1263

Thurs. 10/06

2011-10-06T14:00:00.001-05:00

2:00pm CDT - Another calmer day and everything was working. Content to close up shop early as I'm back to even on the week.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	33
Net $P/L:	2051
Wins:	8
Losses:	1
Win%:	89
Avg$Win:	262
Avg$Loss:	-42

Wed. 10/05

2011-10-05T14:45:00.001-05:00

2:45pm CDT - More muted action today which was fine by me after yesterday.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	76
Net $P/L:	763
Wins:	4
Losses:	4
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	233
Avg$Loss:	-43

Tues. 10/04

2011-10-04T15:20:00.000-05:00

3:20pm CDT - My strategy doesn't like days like today. Took 2 full stops on max size which never makes for a good day. But during the late day rocket launch which I missed out on, I did think of another related strategy to test out. Who knows where that will lead me.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	107
Net $P/L:	-4530
Wins:	8
Losses:	6
Win%:	57
Avg$Win:	263
Avg$Loss:	-1106

Mon. 10/03

2011-10-03T14:20:00.000-05:00

2:20pm CDT - As I get up on the day, I want to play more conservatively and circumvent my strategy guidelines (i.e. taking profits early). I need to stay focused on the bigger picture and take the trades as they come. This afternoon I shortchanged myself 4.5 ES points on a 4-lot that was there for the taking.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	101
Net $P/L:	1810
Wins:	10
Losses:	3
Win%:	77
Avg$Win:	202
Avg$Loss:	-70

Quarter 3 2011 Trading Results

2011-09-30T15:10:00.001-05:00

September Trading Summary

2011-09-30T15:08:00.001-05:00

Note: No trades the first half of the month

RESULTS FOR SEPTEMBER
ES Contracts:	716
Net $P/L:	7574
Wins:	60
Losses:	33
Win%:	65
$Commissions:	1876
Avg$Win:	269
Avg$Loss:	-260

Fri. 9/30

2011-09-30T15:05:00.000-05:00

3:05pm CDT - After I got back yesterday's loss, I played pretty conservatively. Something about end of a week, month, quarter that makes you want to go out on a high note. Net gain for the week, $5497.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	113
Net $P/L:	2016
Wins:	8
Losses:	4
Win%:	67
Avg$Win:	279
Avg$Loss:	-53

Thurs. 9/29

2011-09-29T14:50:00.001-05:00

2:50pm CDT - Very tough day. I should have just quit at lunchtime when I was down 70 bucks because nothing was working. Maybe it's Rosh Hashanah's fault with many traders taking the day off? Action was very spurty/spazzy. Took a full stop out on max size in afternoon and only recovered half of that from there. Bring on tomorrow!

Happy Rosh Hashanah to my Jewish friends!

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	111
Net $P/L:	-1166
Wins:	5
Losses:	5
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	297
Avg$Loss:	-530

Wed. 9/28

2011-09-28T14:55:00.001-05:00

2:55pm CDT - Tough day, churned lots of contracts. Then when market action finally started responding as my strategy expects, I cut some winners short figuring we would remain choppy. And while I'm complaining, I really need to hold trades in the final half hour. There's been some monster runs there lately! Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with result but left double that on the table.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	120
Net $P/L:	1398
Wins:	5
Losses:	6
Win%:	45
Avg$Win:	334
Avg$Loss:	-45

Tues. 9/27

2011-09-27T14:45:00.001-05:00

2:45pm CDT - Not bad considering I was in a position and unable to place, move or cancel orders either via Internet or telephone for a half hour. Luckily it was during the late morning doldrums or I could have been down $2500 today. OEC has been rock solid lately for as long as I can remember but this morning was not fun.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	51
Net $P/L:	1016
Wins:	3
Losses:	3
Win%:	50
Avg$Win:	374
Avg$Loss:	-35

Mon. 9/26

2011-09-26T13:40:00.001-05:00

1:40pm CDT - Fine tuned my strategy slightly over weekend. Worked well today. When I finish backtesting I'll post the hypothetical P/L curve, hopefully by end of week.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	45
Net $P/L:	2232
Wins:	5
Losses:	2
Win%:	71
Avg$Win:	463
Avg$Loss:	-42

Fri. 9/23

2011-09-23T14:40:00.001-05:00

2:40pm CDT - Good end to my first week back. Got some tweaks to my strategy to test out this weekend. For the week, net gain of $2077.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	63
Net $P/L:	1910
Wins:	9
Losses:	4
Win%:	69
Avg$Win:	220
Avg$Loss:	-19

Thurs. 9/22

2011-09-22T15:25:00.000-05:00

3:25pm CDT - This day came sooner than expected but given the craziness in the markets today, I’m not that surprised. I took 2 max stop losses with full size on (-$2500 each in this case). In backtesting, that typically happens about once a week. The EU was to blame for the 2nd one today as I was short when they announced they would recapitalize the banks or some such crap at ~1:22 CDT. This week so far has been good at giving me some "in the trenches" feedback with my strategy and ideas I need to test on how to reduce the discretionary part of it. I had a $2600 unrealized gain on one long trade, for example, that I was sure was going higher. I stopped out at breakeven. Unacceptable.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	148
Net $P/L:	-2563
Wins:	10
Losses:	6
Win%:	63
Avg$Win:	255
Avg$Loss:	-852

Wed. 9/21

2011-09-21T14:30:00.000-05:00

2:30pm CDT - Did a great job sitting on my hands during the half hour before and after the FOMC news. Couple trades after that ended the day nicely although I just now am seeing a final short I could have made but there are always going to be missed trades. Hopefully I mostly miss the losing ones.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	18
Net $P/L:	1078
Wins:	6
Losses:	0
Win%:	100
Avg$Win:	180
Avg$Loss:	0

Tues. 9/20

2011-09-20T14:25:00.000-05:00

2:25pm CDT - Slow day since I missed the morning run-up (and by "missed" I mean I had no signals). And then I nearly got filled on a short signal at end of day but I was a tick to slow. Otherwise a good day considering it's only Day 2 of my comeback.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	23
Net $P/L:	502
Wins:	3
Losses:	2
Win%:	60
Avg$Win:	182
Avg$Loss:	-22

Mon. 9/19

2011-09-19T14:05:00.000-05:00

2:05pm CDT - Enough of a break. I'll never come up with the perfect system and need to put some real money on the line to feel out how I will react to parts of my strategy that I have not been able to mechanically define exactly what I should do. Yes, gasp, there are parts of my strategy that rely on some discretion.

RESULTS FOR DAY
ES Contracts:	24
Net $P/L:	1150
Wins:	6
Losses:	1
Win%:	86
Avg$Win:	195
Avg$Loss:	-21

ES Trading

2011-09-14T10:00:00.002-05:00

Has it been over a month since my last trade? Hard to believe but it has. I'd hoped to be back at it by now but I have not yet been satisfied with any exit strategy I have backtested on my ES system. Likely my expectations are too high but I hope to come up with something that works for me soon. Until then, continue enjoying the crickets chirping on this blog!

August Trading Results

2011-08-31T16:40:00.003-05:00

Note: No trades the last 2.5 weeks of the month
Net breakdown:
ES -$235, GCL -$584, ZS -$3749

RESULTS FOR AUGUST
Contracts:	180
Net $P/L:	-4528
Wins:	33
Losses:	59
Win%:	36
$Commissions:	850
Avg$Win:	190
Avg$Loss:	-183